Population decline: where demography, social science, and biology intersect
Open accessAbstract
In brief: Over the past half century, the world has witnessed an unprecedented decline in human fertility rates. This analysis reviews the various socioeconomic, cultural, and biological factors involved in driving this change and considers whether low fertility rates are a temporary or permanent feature of our future demographic profile. Since the early 1960s, the world has witnessed the spectacular collapse of human fertility. As a result of this phenomenon, several countries are already seeing their population numbers fall and more will follow in the coming decades. The causes of this fertility decline involve a complex interplay of socio-economic, environmental, and biological factors that have converged to constrain fertility in posterity’s wake. Since large numbers of offspring are no longer needed to compensate for high infant mortality in contemporary society, couples have opted to have small families in a quality-over-quantity investment in their progeny’s future. Simultaneously, increases in female education, the enhanced participation of women in the paid workforce, and a resultant delay in childbearing has placed limits on achievable family size. Progressive urbanization, the improved availability of contraceptives, and the socio-economic pressures experienced by young adults in ageing societies are also contributing to fertility’s demise. These factors, together with the individualism that pervades modern society and the increasing social acceptability of voluntary childlessness, have firmly established a low fertility ethos in most post-transition countries. Since none of these forces are about to relent, it looks as if extremely low fertility might be with us for some time to come. This may have long-term consequences. The lack of selection pressure on high fertility genotypes, the ability of ART to retain poor fertility genotypes within the population, and sustained exposure to reproductive toxicants in modern industrialized environments may all contrive to leave a permanent mark on the fecundity of our species.
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Epidemiology of falling fertility: the contribution of social, environmental, and genetic forces
Aitken, R. J., & Norman, R. J. (2025) · Fertility and Sterility · doi:10.1016/j.fertnstert.2025.04.048 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationReproductive toxicology: keeping up with our changing world
Miller, L. B., Feuz, M. B., Meyer, R. G., & Meyer‐Ficca, M. L. (2024) · Frontiers in Toxicology · doi:10.3389/ftox.2024.1456687 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Wang, J., Li, X., Li, C., Liu, L., Wang, Z., & Feng, J. (2025) · Journal of Ethnopharmacology · doi:10.1016/j.jep.2025.119645 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Skerrett-Byrne, D. A., Ashton, L., Nixon, B., & Morgan, P. J. (2025) · The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific · doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2025.101716 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Ducarre, S., Chiechio, R. M., Moulin, G., Butera, E., Dupont, A., Penno, C., Amrani, A. E., Heichette, C., Even‐Hernandez, P., Marchi, V., et al. (2025) · Journal of Extracellular Biology · doi:10.1002/jex2.70041 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Martín, J. M. S., Gascón, J. L. G., & Gallego, J. I. R. (2025) · Land · doi:10.3390/land14061129 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Population decline, political economy, and emergency management—qualitative descriptive research
Ha, K. (2025) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-025-04868-y · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Wang, R., Deng, W., Li, Y., Du, X. P., Sun, J., Luo, Y., Song, J., & Luo, S. (2025) · BMC Oral Health · doi:10.1186/s12903-025-06132-w · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Fertility Rates in Cambodia: A Bumpy Road
Sean, S., Ou, P., Pirtea, P., & de Ziegler, D. (2024) · Fertility & Reproduction · doi:10.1142/s2661318224300034 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Shi, K., Cui, W., Chen, S., Zhang, X., Wang, X., Cao, M., Gao, H., & Wang, Q. (2025) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2025.1612141 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
de Ziegler, D., Braumann, N., Sean, S., & Toner, J. P. (2025) · Fertility and Sterility · doi:10.1016/j.fertnstert.2025.09.012 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Bogan, E., Cercleux, A.-L., & Grigore, E. (2026) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su18020954 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Factors Contributing to Rotary International’s Stagnant Membership Growth
Kotsis, K. Τ. (2024) · Journal of Economics Innovative Management and Entrepreneurship · doi:10.59652/jeime.v2i4.326 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Insights into Fertility Variability in Africa: A Path Toward Achieving the SDGs
Dzivor, N. D., Mensah, E., Mensah, A. C., & Odamtten, M. (2024) · Pan-African Journal of Health and Environmental Science · doi:10.56893/ajhes2024v03i02.04 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Comment on ‘global human population has surpassed Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity’
Millward-Hopkins, J., Bjørn, A., & Tamberg, L. (2026) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aea236 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Unpacking the Decline: Social Determinants and Fertility Dynamics in Qatar
Aref, A., Al-Emadi, S. N., Al-Shawi, A. H., & Sayed, S. E. (2025) · Gulf Studies · doi:10.1007/978-981-96-3412-5_4 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Food, Agriculture, Environment and Chronic non-communicable diseases: How are they connected?
Phillips, R. S. (2025) · Journal of Biomedical Research & Environmental Sciences · doi:10.37871/jbres2210 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Declining global fertility and our future dependence on ART
Aitken, R. J. (2026) · Reproductive BioMedicine Online · doi:10.1016/j.rbmo.2026.105697 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationFertility protection in the reproductive-age population: A evolutionary concept analysis
Chen, Y., Qi, X., Yang, M., Li, J., Wu, L., Zhang, Y., Yang, Z., Wang, R., & Wang, Y. (2026) · International Journal of Nursing Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.ijnss.2026.04.011 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Fecundity difference is related to the production of reproductive pheromones in rats
Yamada, T., Ando, A., Morita, R., Sako, K.-I., Tsuchida, S., & Yamamoto, H. (2024) · Reproduction · doi:10.1530/rep-24-0104 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Comment on ‘global human population has surpassed Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity’
Haubrock, P. J. (2026) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae84e7 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Hassani, A., Noghabi, E. S., & Ajamzibad, H. (2025) · SN Comprehensive Clinical Medicine · doi:10.1007/s42399-025-02030-y
Roldán, E. R. S. (2025) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-21477-6.00537-x
Najmi, R., Nahyu, K. J., Ramadhan, A.-N. F., & Abadi, M. (2025) · Al-Madinah Journal of Islamic Civilization · doi:10.70901/dvqpky13
Ugboma, N., Ayeni, A. O., & Soneye, A. (2026) · Discover Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s43621-026-03000-7
Total Fertility Rate Studies: Bibliometric Analysis with R Program
Baş, H., & Coşan, B. (2026) · Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi · doi:10.18037/ausbd.1744285
Alyokhin, A. (2026) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-28846-3.00005-1
Józefowicz, K. (2026) · Environmental & Socio-economic Studies · doi:10.2478/environ-2026-0014
Reproductive disruptions in fertility research: Conceptual re-integration and evidence from Germany
Milewski, N., & Passet-Wittig, J. (2026) · Vienna Yearbook of Population Research · doi:10.1553/p-3fdh-k3g2
Chen, R.-M. (2026) · Frontiers in Environmental Science · doi:10.3389/fenvs.2026.1781700
Oxidative Stress and Male Reproductive Health—First Edition
Aitken, R. J., Drevet, J. R., Gibb, Z., & Iuliis, G. N. D. (2026) · Antioxidants · doi:10.3390/antiox15060700
Self-citationBeki̇rcan, E., & Çapar, A. (2026) · Journal of Psychosocial Nursing and Mental Health Services · doi:10.3928/02793695-20260618-02
何昌群, Long, M., Yang, Y., Yao, Z., Linqiang, S., Dai, F., Gao, R., & Yang, X. (2026) · Hematology · doi:10.1080/16078454.2026.2692175
Horta, F., Sakkas, D., Handley, S., Xiong, Y., Mihalas, B. P., Deans, R., Hart, R. J., Gilchrist, R. B., & Goldys, E. M. (2026) · Human Reproduction · doi:10.1093/humrep/deag114
When One Child Is Enough: Employment Security and Fertility Decisions Across CountriesPreprint
Akbar, R. F., Husain, M., Nadia, F. N. D., & Paleva, F. G. N. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-10222811/v1
Somatic markers of anthropogenic burden level and ethnic adaptation scenarios
Gorbachyova, A. K., Fedotova, T. K., & Permiakova, E. Y. (2026) · Экология человека · doi:10.17816/humeco706854
Reinhard, A.-K., Hauck, S., Lehnert, K., Lehnert, B., Brakemeier, E., & Wurm, S. (2026) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2026-120224
The Impact of Household Population Growth on Water and Land Resource Depletion in Limpopo Province
Nethengwe, R., & MNISI, P. T. (2026) · International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478) · doi:10.20525/ijrbs.v15i5.4888
- Authors
- Aitken, R. J.
- Affiliations
- Hunter Medical Research Institute (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Aitken, Robert John
- ORCID
- Aitken, Robert John
- Venue
- Reproduction
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2024-05-31
- Volume
- 168
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 1470-1626 (ISSN-L)
- 1741-7899
- PMC
- PMC11227040
- OpenAlex
- W4393997830
- Cited by
- 33
- References
- 125
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 5
- FWCI
- 3.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Reproduction (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- NOVA (University of Newcastle Australia) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Reproductive Health and Contraception
- Keywords
- fertility decline, low fertility, population decline, fertility transition, women's education, women's employment, delayed childbearing, contraceptive access, urbanization, individualism, voluntary childlessness, reproductive toxicants, assisted reproduction, fecundity, infant mortality, family size
- MeSH terms
- Birth Rate, Demography, Female, Fertility, Humans, Male, Population Dynamics, Social Sciences, Socioeconomic Factors
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