Adaptation with Self-Evaluation to Improve Selective Prediction in LLMs
Open accessAbstract
Large language models (LLMs) have recently shown great advances in a variety of tasks, including natural language understanding and generation.However, their use in high-stakes decision-making scenarios is still limited due to the potential for errors.Selective prediction is a technique that can be used to improve the reliability of the LLMs by allowing them to abstain from making predictions when they are unsure of the answer.In this work, we propose a novel framework for adaptation with self-evaluation to improve the selective prediction performance of LLMs.Our framework is based on the idea of using parameter-efficient tuning to adapt the LLM to the specific task at hand while improving its ability to perform self-evaluation.We evaluate our method on a variety of question-answering (QA) datasets and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art selective prediction methods.For example, on the CoQA benchmark, our method improves the AUACC from 91.23% to 92.63% and improves the AUROC from 74.61% to 80.25%.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
ASPIRE is a two-stage parameter-efficient tuning framework that adapts an LLM to a target QA task and then trains a soft prompt for self-evaluation, combining normalized likelihood with a learned self-eval score for selective prediction. It reports state-of-the-art AUACC/AUROC across CoQA, TriviaQA, and SQuAD with OPT and GPT-2 models, e.g., improving CoQA AUACC from 91.23% to 92.63% and AUROC from 74.61% to 80.25%.
Key findings
- On CoQA with adapted OPT-2.7B, ASPIRE improves AUACC from 91.23% to 92.63% and AUROC from 74.61% to 80.25% over the Semantic Entropy baseline (Table 1; abstract).
- Across datasets and models, ASPIRE outperforms baselines: on TriviaQA with adapted OPT-2.7B it reaches AUACC 55.06% and AUROC 84.44%; on SQuAD it reaches AUACC 94.73% and AUROC 82.60% (Table 1).
- ASPIRE with adapted OPT-2.7B can outperform Self-eval and P(True) baselines with pre-trained OPT-30B in selective prediction, even when OPT-30B has better TriviaQA accuracy.
- With 2K training samples, ASPIRE can outperform baselines without soft prompt tuning by a large margin, and more training samples improve performance (Table 5); α = 0.25 is best, and sampling different high-likelihood answers is important.
Methods
- Two-stage soft prompt tuning: first train θp on target QA data with standard LLM loss; then generate high-likelihood answers with beam search, label correct/wrong via Rouge-L threshold γ = 0.9, and train θs to predict “correct”/“wrong”; the selection score combines normalized likelihood and learned self-eval score with α = 0.25.
- Data and models: CoQA, TriviaQA, and SQuAD; CoQA/SQuAD evaluated zero-shot, TriviaQA 5-shot; default 50K training examples; OPT-350M/1.3B/2.7B/30B and GPT2-Medium/Large/XL; baselines include Perplexity, Predictive Entropy, Semantic Entropy, Self-eval, and P(True); metrics are AUACC and AUROC with Rouge-L threshold γ = 0.7 by default.
- Training details: 10 epochs with AdamW, batch size 8, learning rate 0.01, cosine schedule; soft prompt length l = 50; k = 10, kc = 2, kw = 10; test-time complexity is O(l_max).
Limitations
- Stated: the work does not include fine-tuning experimental results with the largest and strongest LLMs (up to 2.7B parameters) due to computational constraints; larger-scale LLMs are left to future work.
- Stated: the obtained selective prediction performances are still not perfect.
- Evident from the text: evaluation is limited to QA datasets and OPT/GPT-2 models; hyperparameters were selected on TriviaQA validation with OPT-2.7B and reused across datasets/models; correctness labels rely on Rouge-L thresholds with manual labeling for γ selection.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
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Claims the paper makes
0 of 5 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
On the CoQA benchmark, ASPIRE improves AUACC from 91.23% to 92.63%.
“on the CoQA benchmark, our method improves the AUACC from 91.23% to 92.63%”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After training θp via soft prompt tuning, the accuracy of LLMs is improved significantly.
“The results in Table 3 show that after training θ p via soft prompt tuning, the accuracy of LLMs is improved significantly.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
With approximately 2k training samples, ASPIRE can outperform baselines without soft prompt tuning significantly on different datasets.
“with ∼2k samples, ASPIRE can outperform the baselines without soft prompt tuning significantly on different datasets”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
More training samples lead to enhanced performance for ASPIRE.
“More training samples lead to enhanced performance”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
ASPIRE outperforms state-of-the-art selective prediction methods on question-answering datasets (CoQA, TriviaQA, and SQuAD) using OPT and GPT-2 models.
“We evaluate our method on a variety of question-answering (QA) datasets and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art selective prediction methods.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
“We show that ASPIRE achieves the state-of-the-art selective prediction performance on three question answering datasets: CoQA, TriviaQA and SQuAD, using OPT and GPT-2 models.”
- Also stated in: § 6 Experiments · plain
“(A1) By learning self-evaluation, we can significantly improve selective prediction performance across different datasets and LLMs (see Table 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
- Findingown data
Using decoding algorithms that can sample different high-likelihood answers (e.g., beam search) is important for ASPIRE to achieve good selective prediction performance.
“(A2) Using decoding algorithms that can sample different high-likelihood answers as A (e.g., beam search) is important for ASPIRE to achieve good selective prediction performance (see Table 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
On the CoQA benchmark, ASPIRE improves AUROC from 74.61% to 80.25%.
“improves the AUROC from 74.61% to 80.25%.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
The computational complexity of ASPIRE at test time is O(l_max), where l_max is the maximum length of the generated output sequence.
“Lastly, we note that the computational complexity of the proposed method at test time is O(l max ) with l max being the maximum length of the generated output sequence.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
More training samples lead to performance improvement.
“The results in Table 5 show that more training samples lead to performance improvement”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After prompt tuning, the accuracy of LLMs gets better.
“as the accuracy gets better”
- Also stated in: § I Complete Results · boosted
“The results show that after training θ p via soft prompt tuning, the accuracy of LLMs is improved significantly.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § I Complete Results · boosted
- Findingown data
With 2K training samples, ASPIRE can outperform the baselines without soft prompt tuning by a large margin across different datasets.
“with 2K training samples, ASPIRE can outperform the baselines without soft prompt tuning by a large margin across different datasets.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Using multinomial sampling with T = 2.0 or T = 0.1 leads to worse performance compared to other decoding algorithms.
“The results in Table 4 show that using multinomial sampling with T = 2.0 or T = 0.1 leads to worse performance compared to other decoding algorithms.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
On the TriviaQA dataset, the pre-trained OPT-30B model has better accuracy than the adapted OPT-2.7B model.
“on the TriviaQA dataset, although the pre-trained OPT-30B model has better accuracy than the adapted OPT-2.7Bmodel”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The proposed method ASPIRE significantly outperforms self-consistency.
“the proposed method ASPIRE still significantly outperforms self-consistency as shown in Table 18.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After prompt tuning, perplexity becomes more meaningful in separating correct and wrong answers.
“and the perplexity becomes more meaningful in separating correct and wrong answers.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The proposed ASPIRE with the adapted OPT-2.7B model significantly outperforms the Self-eval and P(True) baselines with the pre-trained OPT-30B model in selective prediction performance.
“the proposed ASPIRE with the adapted OPT-2.7Bmodel can significantly outperform the Self-eval and P(True) baselines with the pre-trained OPT-30B model in selective prediction performance.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
ASPIRE significantly outperforms the baselines across OPT and GPT2 models of different sizes for different values of the Rouge threshold γ.
“Additional results in Appendix I show that ASPIRE significantly outperforms the baselines across OPT and GPT2 models of different sizes for different values of the Rouge threshold γ.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
After prompt tuning, the AUACC of different methods is significantly improved.
“The results also show that after prompt tuning, the AUACC of different methods is significantly improved”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Setting α = 0.25 leads to the best performance.
“The results in Table 2 show that setting α = 0.25 leads to the best performance”
- Also stated in: § J The Effect of the Hyper-parameter α · plain
“The results in Table 17 show that setting α = 0.25 leads to the best performance across different datasets and different models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § J The Effect of the Hyper-parameter α · plain
- Findingown data
On the TriviaQA dataset, the Self-eval and P(True) baselines with the pre-trained OPT-30B model have much worse selective prediction performance compared to the proposed ASPIRE with the adapted OPT-2.7B model.
“the Self-eval and P(True) baselines with the pre-trained OPT-30B model have much worse selective prediction performance compared to the proposed ASPIRE with the adapted OPT-2.7Bmodel.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
If γ = 0.9, then no wrong answers would be labeled as correct answers.
“We find that if we set γ = 0.9, then no wrong answers would be labeled as correct answers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
On the CoQA and SQuAD datasets, the adapted OPT-2.7B model outperforms the pre-trained OPT-30B model in accuracy.
“On the CoQA and SQuAD datasets, the adapted OPT-2.7Bcan even outperform the pre-trained OPT-30B”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Using beam search leads to similar performance as using multinomial sampling with T = 1.
“The results also show that using beam search leads to similar performance as using multinomial sampling with T = 1.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The proposed method ASPIRE significantly outperforms the baselines in terms of AUACC and AUROC metrics across different datasets and LLMs.
“The results in Table 1 show that the proposed method ASPIRE significantly outperforms the baselines in terms of the AUACC and AUROC metrics across different datasets and LLMs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Beam search decoding yields higher AUACC and AUROC than multinomial sampling for adapted OPT-2.7B with θp on CoQA, TriviaQA, and SQuAD.
“Adapted OPT-2.7B with θ p | Multinomial (T=0.1) Multinomial (T=1.0) Multinomial (T=2.0) Beam search | 92.04 92.60 92.02 92.63 | | 77.96 79.86 77.91 80.25 | 55.09 55.15 53.80 55.06 | 84.28 84.29 82.40 84.44 | 94.24 94.57 94.15 94.73 | 80.52 82.08 80.42 82.60”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisereasoning
Fine-tuning LLMs on training data from the target question-answering task using the standard LLM training loss can improve selective prediction performance.
“Fine-tuning LLMs on training data from the target question answering task using the standard LLM training loss can improve selective prediction performance.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
ASPIRE is useful for practical applications where high selective prediction performance and low inference costs are desired after deploying the LLM.
“Thus, the proposed method is useful for practical applications where high selective prediction performance and low inference costs are desired, after deploying the LLM.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premiseown data
Predictive entropy and semantic entropy methods have a computational complexity of O(m * l_max), where m is the number of output sequences sampled for uncertainty estimation.
“The predictive entropy and semantic entropy methods have a complexity of O(m • l max ) where m is the number of output sequences sampled for uncertainty estimation, which is much larger than that of our method.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Even after fine-tuning, some wrong answers may still have high likelihood and be generated by the LLM at test time.
“Even after fine-tuning, some wrong answers may still have high likelihood and be generated by the LLM at test time.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Distinguishing correct and incorrect answers based on likelihood scores alone is challenging.
“Therefore, distinguishing correct and incorrect answers based on likelihood scores alone is a challenging task.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisereasoning
Maximizing the likelihood of the ground-truth answer is not the same as minimizing the likelihood of wrong answers, because LLMs generate output sequences auto-regressively.
“However, maximizing the likelihood of the ground-truth answer is not the same as minimizing the likelihood of the wrong answers, since LLMs generate output sequences in an auto-regressive way.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Freezing θ and the learned θp can avoid changing the prediction behaviors of the LLM when learning self-evaluation.
“Since the output sequence generation only depends on θ and θ p , freezing θ and the learned θ p can avoid changing the prediction behaviors of the LLM when learning self-evaluation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given
Training LLMs on a subset of the training data from question-answering tasks allows them to learn to distinguish between correct and incorrect answers on their own.
“We do this by training LLMs on a subset of the training data from the question-answering tasks.This allows the LLMs to learn to distinguish between correct and incorrect answers on their own.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
ASPIRE is much less computationally expensive than solutions that require generating multiple output sequences to obtain the uncertainty measure.
“This makes our method much less computationally expensive than solutions that require generating multiple output sequences to obtain the uncertainty measure.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Self-consistency produces discrete selection scores, making it easier to achieve high AUACC compared to approaches that produce continuous selection scores.
“Since self-consistency produces discrete selection scores (in the above setting, the number of possible selection scores is 10) and we use the composite trapezoidal rule to compute AUACC, it is easier for self-consistency to achieve high AUACC compared to those approaches that produce continuous selection scores.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The computational complexity of the self-eval method is O(l_max).
“For the self-eval method, the computational complexity is O(l max ) since we only need one additional forward pass to obtain the self-eval score.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationnone given
Setting a high temperature (T = 2.0) for multinomial sampling samples some random answers that might not have high-likelihood.
“If we set a high temperature (T = 2.0) for multinomial sampling, then we sample some random answers that might not have high-likelihood.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The computational complexity of the P(True) method is O(m • l_max).
“For the P(True) method, the computational complexity is O(m • l max ) since we need to additionally generate m answers and need one forward pass to compute the P(True) score.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The computational complexity of the proposed method ASPIRE is O(l_max).
“For the proposed method ASPIRE, the computational complexity is O(l max ) since we only need additional one forward pass to obtain the learned self-eval score.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The computational complexity of the semantic entropy method is O(m • l_max).
“Thus, the computational complexity for semantic entropy is O(m • l max ).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
Self-evaluation approaches are not effective for high capacity LLMs.
“These demonstrate that the selfevaluation approaches are not effective for high capacity LLMs”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
ASPIRE can significantly improve selective prediction performance even with a limited number of training samples.
“This underlines that our method, ASPIRE, can significantly improve selective prediction performance even with limited number of training samples.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given
Setting a low temperature (T = 0.1) for multinomial sampling repeatedly samples the same high-likelihood answers.
“If we set a low temperature (T = 0.1) for multinomial sampling, then we repeatedly sample the same high-likelihood answers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The computational complexity of the predictive entropy method is O(m • l_max).
“For the predictive entropy method, the computational complexity is O(m • l max ) since we need to additionally generate m answers and compute the likelihood of those m answers.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
It is possible to adapt a smaller LLM to achieve better accuracy than a much larger LLM.
“which demonstrates that it is possible to adapt a smaller LLM to achieve better accuracy than a much larger LLM.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The complexity of the proposed method ASPIRE in training time is the same as that of standard soft prompt tuning.
“Therefore, the complexity of the proposed method ASPIRE in the training time is the same as that of the standard soft prompt tuning.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationnone given
The complexity of training θp using the training objective (12) is the same as the complexity of standard soft prompt tuning.
“The complexity of training θ p using the training objective ( 12) is the same as the complexity of the standard soft prompt tuning.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The computational complexity of the perplexity method is O(l_max).
“For the perplexity method, the computational complexity is O(l max ) since we only need additional one forward pass to obtain the perplexity score.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- May combine two claims. 14
- The quote only partly states this claim. 3
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 15
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataOnly using the normalized likelihood (α = 0) or only using the learned self-eval score (α = 1) leads to much worse performance.
“Only using the normalized likelihood (i.e., α = 0) or only using the learned self-eval score (i.e., α = 1) leads to much worse performance.”
- Also stated in: § J The Effect of the Hyper-parameter α · boosted
“Only using the normalized likelihood (i.e., α = 0) or only using the learned self-eval score (i.e., α = 1) consistently leads to much worse performance.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Also stated in: § J The Effect of the Hyper-parameter α · boosted
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataASPIRE scores for correct predictions are consistently higher than for wrong predictions, whereas semantic entropy scores for correct predictions are sometimes lower than for wrong predictions.
“The examples below show that some semantic entropy scores for correct predictions are lower than some semantic entropy scores for wrong predictions while the AS-PIRE scores for correct predictions are consistently”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataAdaptation with θp improves accuracy of GPT2-XL, GPT2-Large, GPT2-Medium, OPT-350M, OPT-1.3B, and OPT-2.7B on CoQA, TriviaQA, and SQuAD.
“Pre-trained GPT2-XL | 46.27 | 11.80 | 7.41 | | | | | | | Adapted GPT2-XL with θ p 69.18 | 17.45 | 75.44”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
FindingreasoningSelf-Consistency might lead to worse accuracy.
“We also observe that Self-Consistency might lead to worse accuracy”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataLarger values of γ lead to higher recall but lower precision, while lower values of γ lead to higher precision but lower recall.
“The results in Table 7 show that larger values of γ lead to higher recall but lower precision, while the lower values of γ lead to higher precision but lower recall.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataFor OPT-2.7B, ASPIRE with α=0.25 achieves the highest AUACC and AUROC among α values 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1.0 on CoQA, TriviaQA, and SQuAD.
“ASPIRE (α = 0.0) 90.80 OPT-2.7B ASPIRE (α = 0.25) 92.63 ASPIRE (α = 0.5) 92.56 | 74.23 80.25 80.18 | TriviaQA 53.56 81.74 55.06 84.44 54.61 84.33 | SQuAD 92.86 75.72 94.73 82.60 94.59 82.16”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataASPIRE outperforms Self-Consistency in AUACC and AUROC for adapted OPT-350M, OPT-1.3B, and OPT-2.7B on CoQA, TriviaQA, and SQuAD.
“Adapted OPT-350M with θ p | Self-Consistency 59.03 ASPIRE (ours) 59.46 | 74.09 75.55 | 7.41 8.25 | 18.40 19.00 | 63.87 64.74 | 79.99 82.59”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor OPT-2.7B, ASPIRE with α=0.25 achieves higher AUACC and AUROC than ASPIRE with α=0.0 on CoQA, TriviaQA, and SQuAD.
“ASPIRE (α = 0.0) 90.80 OPT-2.7B ASPIRE (α = 0.25) 92.63 ASPIRE (α = 0.5) 92.56 | 74.23 80.25 80.18 | TriviaQA 53.56 81.74 55.06 84.44 54.61 84.33 | SQuAD 92.86 75.72 94.73 82.60 94.59 82.16”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor OPT-2.7B, increasing the Rouge threshold γ from 0.1 to 0.9 increases recall and decreases precision for identifying wrong answers.
“0.1 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 0.62 | 100.00 | 7.91”
- Also stated in: § Additional information · plain
“0.9 | 80.71 | 99.38 | 80.00 | 100.00 | 69.85 | | 100.00”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Also stated in: § Additional information · plain
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Premisenone givenHeuristic prompts may only work for the LLM used in Kadavath et al. (2022) and may not generalize to other types of LLMs such as OPT and GPT2 models.
“However, those prompts may only work for the LLM used in Kadavath et al. (2022) and may not generalize to other types of LLMs (e.g., OPT and GPT2 models evaluated in our work).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Kadavath et al., 2022
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationSoft prompt tuning is effective in obtaining strong generalization with a small amount of target task data.
“Towards this end, parameter efficient tuning techniques (e.g., soft prompt tuning (Lester et al., 2021) and LoRA (Hu et al., 2021)) might be employed to adapt the pre-trained LLM on the task, given their effectiveness in obtaining strong generalization with small amount of target task data.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Lester et al., 2021
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Hu et al., 2021
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningThe second stage can reuse the states in the first stage instead of recomputing them to save computational cost.
“Since the query of the second stage is constructed by appending some additional tokens to the query of the first stage, the second stage can reuse the states in the first stage instead of recomputing them to save some computational cost (see Fig. 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationSemantic entropy or self-consistency usually require generating multiple output sequences to obtain the uncertainty measure for an input sequence, which introduces high computational cost and latency at test time.
“However, they usually require generating multiple output sequences to obtain the uncertainty measure for an input sequence, which introduces high computational cost and latency at test time.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Kuhn et al., 2023
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Wang et al., 2022
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
InterpretationreasoningSimilar improvements are expected when applying the framework to larger-scale LLMs.
“and similar improvements are expected.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Interpretationnone givenThe framework proposed can be used to improve selective prediction performance of LLMs and make their deployments more reliable.
“The framework proposed in our work can be used to improve selective prediction performance of LLMs and make their deployments more reliable.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: LLMs can generate wrong or misleading answers to questions, which can cause serious consequences in safety-critical applications.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataRemoving data points with |x|+|y|>700 removes a very small portion of training data (4.02% CoQA, 0% TriviaQA, 0.04% SQuAD).
“This only removes a very small portion of data points from the training set for each dataset (remove 4.02% training data points in CoQA, 0% training data points in Trivi-aQA and 0.04% training data points in SQuAD).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataHyperparameters were chosen based on performance on the validation set from TriviaQA using the OPT-2.7B model.
“We choose these hyper-parameters based on the performance on the validation set from TriviaQA using the OPT-2.7Bmodel.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Interpretationnone givenIf the Rouge-L score is equal to 0 (or 1), then it is mostly sure that the predicted answer is wrong (or correct).
“If the Rouge-L score is equal to 0 (or 1), then it is mostly sure that the predicted answer is wrong (or correct).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Study design and conductnone givenThe obtained selective prediction performances are still not perfect.
“However, it is noted that the obtained selective prediction performances are still not perfect.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningFor generating an output sequence, the maximum number of forward passes is 1 + l_max and the complexity is O(l_max).
“Thus, for generating the output sequence, the maximum number of forward passes is 1 + l max and the complexity is O(l max ).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningThe LLM can be consistently wrong.
“meaning that the LLM can be consistently wrong.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenThe proposed framework can be applied to LLMs of any size.
“However, the proposed framework can be applied to LLMs of any size”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataThe study did not include fine-tuning experimental results with the largest and strongest LLMs, only up to 2.7B parameters, due to computational constraints.
“Our work does not include fine-tuning experimental results with the largest and the strongest LLMs in the literature (we have fine-tuning results with LLMs up to 2.7B parameters), due to our computational constraints.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningFine-tuning can improve selective prediction performance because it not only improves prediction accuracy but also enhances the likelihood of correct output sequences.
“Such fine-tuning can improve selective prediction performance because it not only improves the prediction accuracy, but also enhances the likelihood of correct output sequences.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
LLMs are not guaranteed to be accurate for all queries.
“However, LLMs are not guaranteed to be accurate for all queries, so it is important to understand which queries they are reliable for.”
The paper relies on this without support.
LLMs are just trained to predict the next token given a context but are not guaranteed to always predict the correct next token.
“Selective prediction for LLMs is challenging because LLMs are just trained to predict the next to-ken given a context but are not guaranteed to always predict the correct next token.”
The paper relies on this without support.
LLMs generate an output sequence in an auto-regressive way and do not directly produce a confidence score for the output sequence.
“Also, since LLMs generate an output sequence in an auto-regressive way, they don't directly produce a confidence score for the output sequence.”
The paper relies on this without support.
PEFT approaches only fine-tune a small number of extra model parameters while freezing most parameters of the pretrained LLMs, thereby greatly decreasing computational and storage costs.
“PEFT approaches only fine-tune a small number of (extra) model parameters while freezing most parameters of the pretrained LLMs, thereby greatly decreasing the computational and storage costs.”
The paper relies on this without support.
PEFT approaches are better than fine-tuning in low-data regimes and generalize better to out-of-domain scenarios.
“It has also been shown that PEFT approaches are better than fine-tuning in the low-data regimes and generalize better to out-of-domain scenarios.”
The paper relies on this without support.
If prompts that effectively stimulate self-evaluation can be developed, it should be possible to discover these prompts through soft prompt tuning in conjunction with targeted training objectives.
“The driving force behind this approach lies in the recognition that if we can develop prompts that effectively stimulate self-evaluation, it should be possible to discover these prompts through soft prompt tuning in conjunction with targeted training objectives.”
The paper relies on this without support.
LLMs can generate wrong or misleading answers to questions, which can cause serious consequences in safety-critical applications.
“However, they can generate wrong or misleading answers to questions, which can cause serious consequences in some safety critical applications.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Accepting a wrong answer is more costly compared to rejecting a correct answer that is different from the reference answers.
“We propose this work for safety-critical applications where accepting a wrong answer is more costly compared to rejecting a correct answer that is different from the reference answers.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Recent approaches for large language models include selective prediction, self-evaluation and calibration, semantic uncertainty, and self-evaluation-based selective prediction.
“In the context of LLMs, recent approaches such as selective prediction, self-evaluation and calibration, semantic uncertainty, and self-evaluation-based selective prediction have been proposed [20] (see references there-in).”
From Grounding and Evaluation for Large Language Models: Practical Challenges and Lessons Learned (Survey) (2024) · cites this paper as [20]
The citation lists haven’t been fetched yet
References 32 · Cited by 13
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- Xiao Liu, Yanan Zheng, Zhengxiao Du, Ming Ding, Yujie Qian, Zhilin Yang, and Jie Tang. 2021b. Gpt understands, too. arXiv preprint arXiv:2103.10385. · arXiv
- R OpenAI. 2023. Gpt-4 technical report. arXiv.
- Alec Radford, Jeffrey Wu, Rewon Child, David Luan, Dario Amodei, Ilya Sutskever, et al. 2019. Lan- guage models are unsupervised multitask learners. OpenAI blog, 1(8):9.
- Ashish Vaswani, Noam Shazeer, Niki Parmar, Jakob Uszkoreit, Llion Jones, Aidan N Gomez, Łukasz Kaiser, and Illia Polosukhin. 2017. Attention is all you need. Advances in neural information process- ing systems, 30.
- Authors
- Chen, J., Yoon, J., Ebrahimi, S., Arik, S., Pfister, T., & Jha, S.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Google (United States) (US)
- Venue
- Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2023
- Published
- 2023
- Pages
- 5190-5213
- OpenAlex
- W4389519963
- Cited by
- 13
- References
- 32
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 4
- FWCI
- 2.30
- Type
- conference paper
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP (Findings of EMNLP) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (2046710, 1804648, 2008559, 1652140, 1836978)
- Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (885000)
- Army Research Office (W911NF-17-1-0405, W911NF)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Topic Modeling
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Natural Language Processing Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Domain Adaptation and Few-Shot Learning
- Keywords
- selective prediction, self-assessment, large language models, parameter-efficient fine-tuning, question answering, uncertainty estimation
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-08.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-08.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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