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Probability of an Obese Person Attaining Normal Body Weight: Cohort Study Using Electronic Health Records
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OBJECTIVES: We examined the probability of an obese person attaining normal body weight. METHODS: We drew a sample of individuals aged 20 years and older from the United Kingdom's Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 2004 to 2014. We analyzed data for 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women. We excluded participants who received bariatric surgery. We estimated the probability of attaining normal weight or 5% reduction in body weight. RESULTS: During a maximum of 9 years' follow-up, 1283 men and 2245 women attained normal body weight. In simple obesity (body mass index = 30.0-34.9 kg/m(2)), the annual probability of attaining normal weight was 1 in 210 for men and 1 in 124 for women, increasing to 1 in 1290 for men and 1 in 677 for women with morbid obesity (body mass index = 40.0-44.9 kg/m(2)). The annual probability of achieving a 5% weight reduction was 1 in 8 for men and 1 in 7 for women with morbid obesity. CONCLUSIONS: The probability of attaining normal weight or maintaining weight loss is low. Obesity treatment frameworks grounded in community-based weight management programs may be ineffective.
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“A study based on a large prospective cohort from the UK suggests that over a 9-year period, the probability of going from obese to normal was 1 in 210 for men, and 1 in 124 for women [33].”
From Separating the Signal from the Noise: How Psychiatric Diagnoses Can Help Discern Food Addiction from Dietary Restraint (2020) · cites this paper as [33]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Fildes, A., Charlton, J., Rudisill, C., Littlejohns, P., Prevost, A. T., & Gulliford, M. C.
- Affiliations
- King's College London (GB)
- ORCID
- Venue
- American Journal of Public Health
- Publisher
- American Public Health Association
- Published
- 2015-09
- Volume
- 105
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- e54-e59
- ISSN
- 0090-0036 (ISSN-L)
- 1541-0048
- PMC
- PMC4539812
- OpenAlex
- W2127314787
- Cited by
- 394
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 36 · 2021: 47 · 2020: 43 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 26 · 2017: 36 · 2016: 42 · 2015: 8
- FWCI
- 39.95
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- American Journal of Public Health (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (submittedVersion)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (12/5005/12)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Obesity and Health Practices
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Bariatric Surgery and Outcomes
- Keywords
- obesity, weight loss, morbid obesity, simple obesity, body mass index, obesity treatment, sex differences
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Female, United Kingdom, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Obesity, Obesity, Morbid, Probability, Cohort Studies, Weight Loss, Body Mass Index, Ideal Body Weight
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