The Global Demography of Aging: Facts, Explanations, Future
Open accessAbstract
Population ageing is the 21st century's dominant demographic phenomenon. Declining fertility, increasing longevity, and the progression of large-sized cohorts to the older ages are causing elder shares to rise throughout the world. The phenomenon of population ageing, which is unprecedented in human history, brings with it sweeping changes in population needs and capacities, with potentially significant implications for employment, savings, consumption, economic growth, asset values, and fiscal balance. This chapter provides a broad overview of the global demography of aging.It reviews patterns, trends, and projections involving various indicators of population aging and their demographic antecedents and sequelae. The chapter also reviews theories economists use to explain the behavioral changes driving the most prominent demographic shifts. Finally, it discusses the changing nature of aging, the future of longevity, and associated policy implications, highlighting some key research issues that require further examination.
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Falling fertility is the main driver of population aging, with a stronger influence than increasing life expectancy and changing migration patterns.
“falling fertility as such is the main driver of population aging, with a stronger influence than increasing life expectancy and changing migration patterns (see, e.g., Weil 1997, Bloom & Luca 2016, Prettner & Bloom 2020).”
From Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences (2024) · cites this paper as Bloom & Luca 2016
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- Authors
- Bloom, D. E., & Luca, D. L.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Mathematica Policy Research (US)
- Corresponding author
- Bloom, David E.
- Venue
- SSRN Electronic Journal
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2016
- ISSN
- 1556-5068 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3125105687
- Cited by
- 89
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 2
- Type
- posted content
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health
- National Institute on Aging (P30AG024409)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Aging, Elder Care, and Social Issues
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Keywords
- population aging, global demography, fertility decline, longevity, cohort size, population projections, aging policy, demographic change
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