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Cited by 53Advanced Causal Inference TechniquesEvaluation and Performance Assessmentdemographic modeling and climate adaptation

Tactics for Design and Inference in Synthetic Control Studies: An Applied Example Using High-Dimensional Data

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Hollingsworth, Alex, Wing, Coady·2020·SSRN Electronic Journal
DOI 10.2139/ssrn.3592088
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Abstract

Most applied synthetic control studies do not explain the identifying assumptions supporting causal inference. We describe these assumptions, illustrate how they can fail, and examine the consequences of such failures. We offer recommendations for discretionary implementation decisions, connecting each to a core identifying assumption. We also show how to implement a Synthetic Control Using Lasso, which allows a high-dimensional donor pool, automates model selection, allows donors from multiple variable types, and permits extrapolation and negative weights. In an application, we estimate how recreational marijuana legalization affects sales of alcohol and over-the-counter painkillers, finding reductions in alcohol sales.

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  • Synthetic control methods and similar causal inference models rely on assumptions of strict exogeneity that are violated when unincorporated time-varying factors (eg, fentanyl spread) are correlated with an exposure and an outcome of interest.

    “Synthetic control methods and similar causal inference models rely on assumptions of strict exogeneity that are violated when unincorporated time-varying factors (eg, fentanyl spread) are correlated with an exposure (eg, policy adoption) and an outcome of interest (eg, overdose rates).40,41”

    From Drug Decriminalization, Fentanyl, and Fatal Overdoses in Oregon (2024) · cites this paper as [40]

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Research works printed but not linked: 42

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Authors
Hollingsworth, A., & Wing, C.
Affiliations
National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
Corresponding author
Hollingsworth, Alex
ORCID
Venue
SSRN Electronic Journal
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2020
ISSN
1556-5068 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.2139/ssrn.3592088
OpenAlex
W3122665762
Cited by
53
References
7
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 1
Type
posted content
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • SSRN Electronic Journal (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • SocArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • SocArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Evaluation and Performance Assessment
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › demographic modeling and climate adaptation
Keywords
synthetic control method, causal inference, identifying assumptions, high-dimensional data, LASSO, model selection, extrapolation, negative weights, recreational cannabis legalization, alcohol sales, over-the-counter analgesics

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