The Augmented Synthetic Control Method
Open accessAbstract
The synthetic control method (SCM) is a popular approach for estimating the impact of a treatment on a single unit in panel data settings. The “synthetic control” is a weighted average of control units that balances the treated unit’s pretreatment outcomes and other covariates as closely as possible. A critical feature of the original proposal is to use SCM only when the fit on pretreatment outcomes is excellent. We propose Augmented SCM as an extension of SCM to settings where such pretreatment fit is infeasible. Analogous to bias correction for inexact matching, augmented SCM uses an outcome model to estimate the bias due to imperfect pretreatment fit and then de-biases the original SCM estimate. Our main proposal, which uses ridge regression as the outcome model, directly controls pretreatment fit while minimizing extrapolation from the convex hull. This estimator can also be expressed as a solution to a modified synthetic controls problem that allows negative weights on some donor units. We bound the estimation error of this approach under different data-generating processes, including a linear factor model, and show how regularization helps to avoid over-fitting to noise. We demonstrate gains from Augmented SCM with extensive simulation studies and apply this framework to estimate the impact of the 2012 Kansas tax cuts on economic growth. We implement the proposed method in the new augsynth R package.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Standard practice for placebo tests was followed by conducting in-space and in-time tests.
“We followed standard practice for placebo tests, conducting in-space and in-time tests.40,42,43”
From The Peacemaker Fellowship and Urban Gun Violence in Richmond, California (2026) · cites this paper as [40]
Section 2.3 describes placebo checks as part of synthetic-control practice, and the appendix discussion of Figures F.10–F.12 reports in-time placebo tests. The passages do not establish in-space tests as part of the practice attributed to this source. Whether the citing authors conducted either test is their own report, not something this source can verify. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
The Elements of Statistical Learning
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2009) · Springer Series in Statistics · doi:10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7 · Cited by 25,970 · see citing works
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746 · Cited by 5,513 · cited 12× · see citing works
“This underscores the importance of the recommendation in Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2010, 2015) to use SCM only in settings with excellent pretreatment fit.”
InfluentialThe economic costs of conflict: a case study of the Basque Country
Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/000282803321455188 · Cited by 4,517 · cited 6× · see citing works
“The synthetic control method (SCM) is a popular approach for estimating the impact of a treatment on a single unit in panel data settings with a modest number of control units and with many pre-treatment periods (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003; Abadie et al., 2010, 2015).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialLogistic Regression in Rare Events Data
King, G., & Zeng, L. (2001) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a004868 · Cited by 4,316 · cited 2× · see citing works
“McCullagh and Nelder (1989) and King and Zeng (2001) show that the MLE for logistic regression can be badly biased when the response is a rare event.”
BackgroundEstimation of Regression Coefficients When Some Regressors Are Not Always Observed
Robins, J. M., Rotnitzky, A. G., & Zhao, L. P. (1994) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.1994.10476818 · Cited by 2,803 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Equation (10), by contrast, is analogous to standard doubly robust estimation (Robins, Rotnitzky, and Zhao 1994), which begins with the outcome model but then re-weights to balance residuals.”
MethodComparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2014) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12116 · Cited by 2,375 · see citing works
Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control MethodPreprint
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2014) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1950298 · Cited by 2,217 · cited 14× · see citing works
“This underscores the importance of the recommendation in Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2010, 2015) to use SCM only in settings with excellent pretreatment fit.”
InfluentialOn the Application of Probability Theory to Agricultural Experiments. Essay on Principles. Section 9
Neyman, J., Dabrowska, D. M., & Speed, T. P. (1990) · Statistical Science · doi:10.1214/ss/1177012031 · Cited by 1,616 · see citing works
Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects
Abadie, A. (2021) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.20191450 · Cited by 1,486 · see citing works
Bias-Corrected Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects
Abadie, A., & Imbens, G. W. (2011) · Journal of Business & Economic Statistics · doi:10.1198/jbes.2009.07333 · Cited by 1,416 · see citing works
The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation
Athey, S. C., & Imbens, G. W. (2017) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.31.2.3 · Cited by 1,406 · see citing works
Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models
Xu, Y. (2017) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1017/pan.2016.2 · Cited by 938 · cited 5× · see citing works
“Specifically, we use the Generalized Synthetic Control Method (Xu, 2017) to estimate a factor model with three latent factors based on the series of log Gross State Product (GSP) per capita, N = 50, T0 = 89.”
MethodInfluentialThe Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals
King, G., & Zeng, L. (2005) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/pan/mpj004 · Cited by 533 · cited 2× · see citing works
“See King and Zeng (2006) for a discussion of extrapolation in constructing counterfactuals.”
BackgroundMethodMatrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models
Athey, S., Bayati, M., Doudchenko, N., Imbens, G., & Khosravi, K. (2018) · doi:10.3386/w25132 · Cited by 497 · see citing works
Regional policy evaluation: interactive fixed effects and synthetic controls.
Gobillon, L., & Magnac, T. (2016) · Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_00537 · Cited by 424 · cited 4× · see citing works
“1 Bias for a general weighting estimator Following the setup in Abadie et al. (2010), we assume that there are J latent time-varying factors μt = {μjt}, j = 1, .”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialBalancing, Regression, Difference-In-Differences and Synthetic Control Methods: A Synthesis
Doudchenko, N., & Imbens, G. (2016) · doi:10.3386/w22791 · Cited by 410 · see citing works
Entropy Balancing is Doubly Robust
Zhao, Q., & Percival, D. (2016) · Journal of Causal Inference · doi:10.1515/jci-2016-0010 · Cited by 402 · see citing works
Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data
Zubizarreta, J. R. (2015) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2015.1023805 · Cited by 369 · cited 1× · see citing works
“een treated and control units, rather than balancing them indirectly by rst estimating the propensity score coecients. 3 Examples includeHainmueller(2011),Graham et al.(2012),Imai and Ratkovic(2013),Zubizarreta (2015),Tan(2017), andWang and Zubizarreta(2018). Several also combine weighting and outcome modeling, includ…”
ResultApproximate Residual Balancing: Debiased Inference of Average Treatment Effects in High Dimensions
Athey, S. C., Imbens, G. W., & Wager, S. (2018) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology) · doi:10.1111/rssb.12268 · Cited by 317 · cited 1× · see citing works
“See Athey, Imbens, and Wager (2018) for analogous results on balancing weights in high dimensional cross-sectional settings.”
BackgroundA Penalized Synthetic Control Estimator for Disaggregated Data
Abadie, A., & L’Hour, J. (2021) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2021.1971535 · Cited by 240 · see citing works
Synthetic controls with imperfect pretreatment fit
Ferman, B., & Pinto, C. C. D. X. (2021) · Quantitative Economics · doi:10.3982/qe1596 · Cited by 213 · see citing works
Oaxaca-Blinder as a Reweighting Estimator
Kline, P. (2011) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.101.3.532 · Cited by 182 · cited 2× · see citing works
“This formulation covers several estimators, including penalized SCM, entropy balancing (Hainmueller, 2011), Oaxaca-Blinder weights (Kline, 2011), and minimal approximately balancing weights (Wang and Zubizarreta, 2018).”
MethodCovariate balancing propensity score by tailored loss functions
Zhao, Q.-Y. (2016) · Annals of Statistics · doi:10.1214/18-aos1698 · Cited by 171 · see citing works
Model-Assisted Survey Estimation with Modern Prediction Techniques
Breidt, F. J., & Opsomer, J. D. (2017) · Statistical Science · doi:10.1214/16-sts589 · Cited by 151 · see citing works
Robbins, M. W., Saunders, J. M., & Kilmer, B. (2016) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2016.1213634 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
On the role of covariates in the synthetic control method
Botosaru, I., & Ferman, B. (2019) · Econometrics Journal · doi:10.1093/ectj/utz001 · Cited by 128 · cited 10× · see citing works
“Botosaru and Ferman (2017) and Kaul et al. (2018) explore the role of auxiliary covariates in SCM and note several pathologies. Ferman and Pinto (2018) consider the behavior of SCM when the weights fail to exactly balance the lagged outcomes, showing that the resulting SCM weights do not converge to oracle weights whe…”
BackgroundInfluentialStatistical Inference for Average Treatment Effects Estimated by Synthetic Control Methods
Li, K. T. (2019) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2019.1686986 · Cited by 110 · cited 1× · see citing works
“…inference for the SCM and variants, going beyond the original proposal in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2010, 2015); see, for example, Kathleen (2020), Toulis and Shaikh (2018), Cattaneo, Feng, and Titiunik (2019), and Cher-nozhukov, Wuthrich, and Zhu (2018).”
BackgroundSynthetic Difference In Differences
Arkhangelsky, D., Athey, S. C., Hirshberg, D. A., Imbens, G. W., & Wager, S. (2019) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w25532 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Augmented minimax linear estimation
Hirshberg, D. A., & Wager, S. (2021) · The Annals of Statistics · doi:10.1214/21-aos2080 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
Tan, Z. (2019) · Biometrika · doi:10.1093/biomet/asz059 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Robust Synthetic ControlPreprint
Amjad, M. J., Devavrat Shah, B., & Shen, D. (2017) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1711.06940 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Prediction Intervals for Synthetic Control Methods
Cattaneo, M. D., Feng, Y., & Titiunik, R. (2021) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2021.1979561 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
An Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic ControlsPreprint
Chernozhukov, V., Wüthrich, K., & Zhu, Y. (2021) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.14473870 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Panel parametric, semiparametric, and nonparametric construction of counterfactuals
Hsiao, C., & Zhou, Q. (2019) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.2702 · Cited by 55 · cited 1× · see citing works
“These include the matrix completion method in Athey et al. (2017), the generalized synthetic control method in Xu (2017), and the combined approaches in Hsiao et al. (2018).”
Samartsidis, P., Seaman, S. R., Presanis, A. M., Hickman, M., & Angelis, D. D. (2019) · Statistical Science · doi:10.1214/19-sts713 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Imperfect Synthetic Controls: Did the Massachusetts Health Care Reform Save Lives?
Powell, D. (2018) · RAND Corporation eBooks · doi:10.7249/wr1246 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Two tales of two U.S. states: Regional fiscal austerity and economic performance
Rickman, D. S., & Wang, H. (2017) · Regional Science and Urban Economics · doi:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.10.008 · Cited by 24 · cited 1× · see citing works
“In 2010, Sam Brownback was elected governor of Kansas, having run on a platform emphasizing tax cuts and deficit reduction (see Rickman and Wang 2018, for further discussion and analysis).”
BackgroundInterpretable sensitivity analysis for balancing weights
Soriano, D., Ben‐Michael, E., Bickel, P. J., Feller, A., & Pimentel, S. D. (2023) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · doi:10.1093/jrsssa/qnad032 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Self-citationCovariate Balancing Propensity Score by Tailored Loss FunctionsPreprint
Zhao, Q. (2016) · arXiv (Cornell University) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1601.05890 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Tan, Z. (2017) · arXiv (Cornell University) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1710.08074 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
On the Properties of the Synthetic Control Estimator with Many Periods and Many ControlsPreprint
Ferman, B. (2021) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.15135426 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Imperfect Synthetic Controls: Did the Massachusetts Health Care Reform Save Lives?Preprint
Powell, D. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3192710 · Cited by 14 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Powell (2018) instead allowed for extrapolation via a Frisch-Waugh-Lovell-style projection, which similarly generalizes the typical SCM setting.”
MethodInference on average treatment effects in aggregate panel data settings
Chernozhukov, V., Wüthrich, K., & Zhu, Y. (2019) · doi:10.1920/wp.cem.2019.3219 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Combining Matching and Synthetic Control to Trade off Biases from Extrapolation and Interpolation
Kellogg, M., Mogstad, M., Pouliot, G., & Torgovitsky, A. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w26624 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Minimal Approximately Balancing Weights: Asymptotic Properties and Practical ConsiderationsPreprint
Wang, Z., & Zubizarreta, J. R. (2017) · arXiv (Cornell University) · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Randomization Tests in Observational Studies with Staggered Adoption of TreatmentPreprint
Shaikh, A. M., & Toulis, P. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3509581 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Hsiao, C. H., & Zhou, Q. (2018) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 12
- Abadie, A., A. Diamond, and J. Hainmueller (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Com- parative Case Studies: Estimating the E↵ect of California's Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association 105 (490), 493-505.
- Abadie, A. and G. W. Imbens (2011). Bias-corrected matching estimators for average treat- ment e↵ects. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 29 (1), 1-11.
- Arkhangelsky, D., S. Athey, D. A. Hirshberg, G. W. Imbens, and S. Wager (2019). Synthetic di↵erence in di↵erences. arXiv preprint arXiv:1812.09970 . · arXiv
- Ben-Michael, E., A. Feller, and J. Rothstein (2019). Synthetic controls and weighted event studies with staggered adoption. arXiv preprint arXiv:1912.03290 . · arXiv
- Doudchenko, N. and G. W. Imbens (2017). Di↵erence-In-Di↵erences and Synthetic Control Methods: A Synthesis. arxiv 1610.07748 . · arXiv
- Vovk, V., A. Gammerman, and G. Shafer (2005). Algorithmic learning in a random world. Springer.
- Athey, S., G. W. Imbens, and S. Wager (2018). Approximate residual balancing: debiased inference of average treatment e↵ects in high dimensions. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 80 (4), 597-623.
- Cassel, C. M., C.-E. Sarndal, and J. H. Wretman (1976). Some results on generalized di↵erence estimation and generalized regression estimation for finite populations. Biometrika 63 (3), 615- 620.
- Chattopadhyay, A., Christopher H. Hase, and J. R. Zubizarreta (2020). Balancing Versus Modeling Approaches to Weighting in Practice. Statistics in Medicine in press.
- Chernozhukov, V., K. Wuthrich, and Y. Zhu (2018). Inference on average treatment e↵ects in aggregate panel data settings. arXiv preprint arXiv:1812.10820 . · arXiv
- Doudchenko, N. and G. W. Imbens (2017). Di↵erence-In-Di↵erences and Synthetic Control Meth- ods: A Synthesis. arxiv 1610.07748 . · arXiv
- Robbins, M., J. Saunders, and B. Kilmer (2017). A Framework for Synthetic Control Methods With High-Dimensional, Micro-Level Data: Evaluating a Neighborhood-Specific Crime Intervention. Journal of the American Statistical Association 112 (517), 109-126.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
What's trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature
Roth, J., Sant’Anna, P. H. C., Bilinski, A., & Poe, J. (2023) · Journal of Econometrics · doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.03.008 · Cited by 2,027 · see citing works
Synthetic Difference-in-Differences
Arkhangelsky, D., Athey, S., Hirshberg, D. A., Imbens, G. W., & Wager, S. (2021) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20190159 · Cited by 1,518 · see citing works
Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects
Abadie, A. (2021) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.20191450 · Cited by 1,486 · see citing works
Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models
Athey, S., Bayati, M., Doudchenko, N., Imbens, G., & Khosravi, K. (2018) · doi:10.3386/w25132 · Cited by 497 · see citing works
Liu, L., Wang, Y., & Xu, Y. (2024) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12723 · Cited by 390 · see citing works
Armstrong, C., Kepler, J. D., Samuels, D., & Taylor, D. J. (2022) · Journal of Accounting and Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jacceco.2022.101521 · Cited by 242 · see citing works
A Penalized Synthetic Control Estimator for Disaggregated Data
Abadie, A., & L’Hour, J. (2021) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2021.1971535 · Cited by 240 · see citing works
Causal Inference About the Effects of Interventions From Observational Studies in Medical Journals
Dahabreh, I. J., & Bibbins-Domingo, K. (2024) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2024.7741 · Cited by 242 · see citing works
Synthetic controls with imperfect pretreatment fit
Ferman, B., & Pinto, C. C. D. X. (2021) · Quantitative Economics · doi:10.3982/qe1596 · Cited by 213 · see citing works
“Ben-Michael et al. (2018) derive finite-sample bounds on the bias of the SC estimator, and show that the bounds they derive do not converge to zero when J is fixed and T0 ! 1.”
BackgroundInfluentialAn Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic Controls
Chernozhukov, V., Wüthrich, K., & Zhu, Y. (2021) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2021.1920957 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
“Our inference method also works in conjunction with more recently proposed modified versions of SC, such as the augmented SC estimator of Ben-Michael, Feller, and Rothstein (2018).”
MethodDo pilot zones for green finance reform and innovation promote energy savings? Evidence from China
Zhang, Z., Wang, J., Feng, C. Q., & Chen, X. (2023) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106763 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Heterogeneous emission trading schemes and green innovation
Yao, S., Yu, X., Yan, S., & Wen, S. (2021) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112367 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Song, C., Liu, B., Cheng, K., Cole, M., Dai, Q., Elliott, R., & Shi, Z. (2023) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.2c06800 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
“18 A detailed description of the method can be found in Ben-Michael et al. (2021).”
MethodConformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effects
Lei, L., & Candès, E. J. (2021) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology) · doi:10.1111/rssb.12445 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
Coopetition strategies: Critical issues and research directions
Czakon, W., Srivastava, M. K., Roy, F. L., & Gnyawalị, D. R. (2019) · Long Range Planning · doi:10.1016/j.lrp.2019.101948 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
All things equal? Heterogeneity in policy effectiveness against COVID-19 spread in chile
Bennett, M. (2021) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105208 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
“Using the same setup as the one described for 1, Equation 2 shows how ASCM would be applied in a setting were there is potentially a poor fit in a particular function of pre-intervention outcomes, m̂(·) (Ben-Michael et al., 2020).”
MethodDid the ACA Medicaid expansion save lives?
Borgschulte, M., & Vogler, J. (2020) · Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102333 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
On synthetic difference-in-differences and related estimation methods in Stata
Clarke, D., Pailañir, D., Athey, S. C., & Imbens, G. W. (2024) · The Stata Journal Promoting communications on statistics and Stata · doi:10.1177/1536867x241297914 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
“A key element of estimation, as in the case of synthetic control estimation (Ben-Michael et al. 2021; Abadie et al. 2010), is the adequate modeling of pre-treatment trends.”
InfluentialSynthetic Difference-in-Differences EstimationPreprint
Clarke, D., Pailañir, D., Athey, S. C., & Imbens, G. W. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4346540 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
“This has attracted considerable attention in both empirical applications and theoretical extensions, with recent advances including debiasing procedures (Ben-Michael et al. 2021) which can additionally house multiple treatment units (Abadie and L’Hour 2021), more flexible weighting schemes, or constant fixed differenc…”
BackgroundInfluentialConditional cash lotteries increase COVID-19 vaccination rates
Barber, A., & West, J. (2021) · Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102578 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
“For nontrivial cases, Ben-Michael et al. (2021) demonstrate how Eq.”
Synthetic Difference In Differences
Arkhangelsky, D., Athey, S. C., Hirshberg, D. A., Imbens, G. W., & Wager, S. (2019) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w25532 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
“Methodologically, our work draws most directly from the literature on SC meth-ods, including Abadie and Gardeazabal ( 2003 ) ; Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller ( 2010, 2015 ; Abadie and L’Hour ( 2016 ) ; Doudchenko and Imbens ( 2016 ) ; and Ben-Michael, Feller, and Rothstein ( 2018 ) .”
Prediction Intervals for Synthetic Control Methods
Cattaneo, M. D., Feng, Y., & Titiunik, R. (2021) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2021.1979561 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
“3 in Chernozhukov et al. (2018) that P( √ T0‖γ̂ − γ‖∞ > c(1− α)) ≤ α+ CT−c 0 .”
BackgroundInfant Deaths After Texas’ 2021 Ban on Abortion in Early Pregnancy
Gemmill, A., Margerison, C. E., Stuart, E. A., & Bell, S. O. (2024) · Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine · doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2024.0885 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Synthetic Control Estimator: A Tool for Comparative Case Studies in Economic History
Gilchrist, D. J., Emery, T., Garoupa, N. M., & Spruk, R. (2020) · Journal of Economic Surveys · doi:10.1111/joes.12493 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Acharya, B., & Dhakal, C. (2021) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.38238 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Effectiveness of Localized Lockdowns in the COVID-19 Pandemic
Li, Y., Undurraga, E. A., & Zubizarreta, J. R. (2022) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwac008 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
“Based on the potential outcomes framework for causal inference (12, 13, 36, 37), we used the augmented synthetic control method to analyze the pandemic's progression in comparable municipalities that underwent different lockdown interventions (30, 31).”
MethodCausal analysis of central bank holdings of corporate bonds under interference
Mäkinen, T., Li, F., Mercatanti, A., & Silvestrini, A. (2022) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105873 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Low-intensity fires mitigate the risk of high-intensity wildfires in California’s forests
Wu, X., Sverdrup, E., Mastrandrea, M. D., Wara, M. W., & Wager, S. (2023) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adi4123 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Hollingsworth, A., & Wing, C. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3592088 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
A Bayesian Alternative to Synthetic Control for Comparative Case Studies
Pang, X., Liu, L., & Xu, Y. (2022) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1017/pan.2021.22 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Causal models for longitudinal and panel data: a survey
Arkhangelsky, D., & Imbens, G. (2024) · The Econometrics Journal · doi:10.1093/ectj/utae014 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Nianogo, R. A., Benmarhnia, T., & O’Neill, S. (2023) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyad032 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Access to Health Care and Criminal Behavior: Short-Run Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions
Vogler, J. (2017) · Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · doi:10.1002/pam.22239 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
McGinty, E. E., Bicket, M. C., Seewald, N. J., Stuart, E. A., Alexander, G. C., Barry, C. L., McCourt, A. D., & Rutkow, L. (2022) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m21-4363 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
“Statistical Analysis We used an augmented synthetic control approach (53).”
BackgroundMethodDo Renewable Portfolio Standards Deliver Cost-Effective Carbon Abatement?Preprint
Greenstone, M., & Nath, I. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3374942 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Doucette, M. L., Ward, J. A., McCourt, A. D., Webster, D. W., & Crifasi, C. K. (2022) · Journal of Urban Health · doi:10.1007/s11524-022-00627-5 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Texas’ 2021 Ban on Abortion in Early Pregnancy and Changes in Live Births
Bell, S. O., Stuart, E. A., & Gemmill, A. (2023) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2023.12034 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
A Trial Emulation Approach for Policy Evaluations with Group-level Longitudinal Data
Ben‐Michael, E., Feller, A., & Stuart, E. A. (2021) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0000000000001369 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Self-citationMesserle, R., & Schreyögg, J. (2023) · The European Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1007/s10198-023-01645-z · Cited by 37 · see citing works
“Fixest, Augsynth, and SynthDiD were primarily used as packages for estimation [40, 53, 54].”
MethodKaplan, S., White, J. S., Madsen, K. A., Basu, S., Villas-Boas, S. B., & Schillinger, D. (2024) · JAMA Health Forum · doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2023.4737 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Zhang, Z., Deng, H., Yan, M., Feng, C. Q., & Sun, H. (2025) · International Review of Economics & Finance · doi:10.1016/j.iref.2025.104265 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Liu, L., Wang, Y., & Xu, Y. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3555463 · Cited by 142 · see citing works
The impact of e-procurement on institutional quality
Mélon, L., & Spruk, R. (2020) · Journal of Public Procurement · doi:10.1108/jopp-07-2019-0050 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Treatment effects in interactive fixed effects models with a small number of time periods
Callaway, B., & Karami, S. (2022) · Journal of Econometrics · doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.02.001 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
“Let ATTDID denote the expression on the right hand side of Equation (10) but allowing for the possibility that the parallel trends assumption does not hold (so that, in this case, ATTDID may not be equal to the ATT ).”
BackgroundConsidering multiple governance levels in epidemiologic analysis of public policies
Schnake-Mahl, A. S., Jahn, J. L., Purtle, J., & Bilal, U. (2022) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.115444 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Causality in Econometrics: Choice vs Chance
Imbens, G. W. (2022) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta21204 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
“The basic synthetic control method as well as various extensions (Arkhangelsky, Athey, Hirshberg, Imbens, and Wager (2021), Ben-Michael, Feller, and Rothstein (2021)), have in a short time found many applications in a wide range of fields, including studies of the effects of Brexit and the effects…”
MethodOn the implied weights of linear regression for causal inference
Chattopadhyay, A., & Zubizarreta, J. R. (2022) · Biometrika · doi:10.1093/biomet/asac058 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Samartsidis, P., Seaman, S. R., Presanis, A. M., Hickman, M., & Angelis, D. D. (2019) · Statistical Science · doi:10.1214/19-sts713 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Rico, J., Wang, Z., Panlasigui, S., Loucks, C., Swenson, J. J., & Pfaff, A. S. P. (2022) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102780 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Ham, D. W., & Miratrix, L. W. (2024) · The Annals of Applied Statistics · doi:10.1214/24-aoas1872 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
The PCDID Approach: Difference-in-Differences When Trends Are Potentially Unparallel and Stochastic
Chan, M. K., & Kwok, S. S. M. (2021) · Journal of Business and Economic Statistics · doi:10.1080/07350015.2021.1914636 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
“The PCDID approach is related to the large literature on factor-augmented regression models (e.g., Stock and Watson 2002; Bernanke, Boivin, and Eliasz 2005; Bai and Ng 2006), which forecast one or several time series using a large number of predictor series.”
MethodSimionescu, M., Radulescu, M., & Belaşcu, L. (2024) · Renewable Energy · doi:10.1016/j.renene.2024.121397 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Counterfactual Analysis With Artificial Controls: Inference, High Dimensions, and Nonstationarity
Masini, R., & Medeiros, M. C. (2021) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2021.1964978 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
“See also Amjad, Shah, and Shen (2018), Arkhangelsky et al. (2019), and Ben-Michael, Feller, and Rothstein (2019).”
BackgroundSheridan, P. E., McElroy, S., Casey, J. A., & Benmarhnia, T. (2022) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0000000000001539 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Multilevel Calibration Weighting for Survey Data
Ben‐Michael, E., Feller, A., & Hartman, E. (2023) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1017/pan.2023.9 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“7 If we allow unbounded extrapolation and set L = −∞ and U = ∞, the resulting estimator will be equivalent to linear regression weights from a linear regression of the outcome on first-order indicatorsD (1) (Ben-Michael et al. 2021).”
MethodInfluentialSelf-citationDo fiscal rules undermine public investments? A review of empirical evidence
Blesse, S., Dörr, L., Dorn, F., & Lay, M. (2025) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102775 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
The how and why of Bayesian nonparametric causal inference
Linero, A. R., & Antonelli, J. (2022) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Computational Statistics · doi:10.1002/wics.1583 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
“…are two very popular topics Wiesen-farth et al., 2014; Adhikari et al., 2020), to principal stratification (Schwartz et al., 2011), to high-dimensional panel data settings (Antonelli et al., 2020), and to replace synthetic control methods with flexible model-based methods (Ben-Michael et al., 2021).”
MethodMcGinty, E. E., Seewald, N. J., Bandara, S. N., Cerdá, M., Daumit, G. L., Eisenberg, M. D., Griffin, B. A., Igusa, T., Jackson, J. W., Kennedy‐Hendricks, A., et al. (2022) · Prevention Science · doi:10.1007/s11121-022-01427-8 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Impact of high-speed rail on income inequalities in Italy
Matteo, D. D., & Cardinale, B. (2023) · Journal of Transport Geography · doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2023.103652 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Do price reductions attract customers in urban public transport? A synthetic control approach
Wallimann, H., Blättler, K., & von Arx, W. (2023) · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/j.tra.2023.103700 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Synthetic Controls with Staggered Adoption
Ben‐Michael, E., Feller, A., & Rothstein, J. M. (2021) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w28886 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Self-citationLiu, B., Bryson, J. R., Sevinç, D., Cole, M. A., Elliott, R., Bartington, S., Bloss, W. J., & Shi, Z. (2023) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1007/s10640-023-00794-2 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
“Both hourly observed and weather normalised pollutant concentrations were converted into weekly averages to run the second-stage analysis, i.e., the Ridge Augmented Synthetic Control Method (ASCM).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialCommunity notes reduce engagement with and diffusion of false information online
Slaughter, I., Peytavin, A., Ugander, J. H., & Saveski, M. (2025) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2503413122 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Counterfactual Analysis and Inference With Nonstationary Data
Masini, R., & Medeiros, M. C. (2020) · Journal of Business and Economic Statistics · doi:10.1080/07350015.2020.1799814 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Combining counterfactual outcomes and ARIMA models for policy evaluation
Menchetti, F., Cipollini, F., & Mealli, F. (2022) · Econometrics Journal · doi:10.1093/ectj/utac024 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Government debt, European Institutions and fiscal rules: a synthetic control approach
Kraemer, R., & Lehtimäki, J. (2023) · International Tax and Public Finance · doi:10.1007/s10797-023-09791-z · Cited by 23 · see citing works
“In applying the SCM, the approach of this paper follows the seminal work of Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and Abadie et al. (2010) on the SCM as well as the bias-corrected SCM in line with (Abadie & L’hour, J., 2021; Ben-Michael et al., 2021; Abadie, 2021) as a large-scale robustness analysis.”
Synthetic Control as Online Linear Regression
Chen, J. (2023) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta20720 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“…typically derived under a lowrank linear factor model or a vector autoregressive model of the outcomes (see, among others, Abadie et al., 2010, Ben-Michael et al., 2019, 2021, Ferman and Pinto, 2021, Viviano and Bradic, 2019).2 While these statistical guarantees formally hold under these…”
BackgroundLiang, Y., & He, X. (2024) · Economic Analysis and Policy · doi:10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.012 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Effects of U.S. State Medical Cannabis Laws on Treatment of Chronic Noncancer Pain
McGinty, E. E., Tormohlen, K. N., Seewald, N. J., Bicket, M. C., McCourt, A. D., Rutkow, L., White, S., & Stuart, E. A. (2023) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m23-0053 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
“Statistical Analysis We used an augmented synthetic control approach (31), which weights comparison states so that the outcomes during the prelaw period are identical in the intervention and comparison states.”
MethodInfluentialPublic cooperation and the police: Do calls-for-service increase after homicides?
Brantingham, P. J., & Uchida, C. D. (2021) · Journal of Criminal Justice · doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2021.101785 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Did Ohio’s Vaccine Lottery Increase Vaccination Rates? A Pre-Registered, Synthetic Control Study
Lang, D., Esbenshade, L., & Willer, R. (2023) · Journal of Experimental Political Science · doi:10.1017/xps.2021.32 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
“2021), and additionally including daily estimates of individual mobility provided by Google trends (Barber and West 2021): Lastly, we varied the modeling technique used to compare the traditional synthetic control approach to an augmented synthetic control model (Ben-Michael et al. 2021a), exploring a technique that r…”
MethodClarke, G. M., Steventon, A., & O’Neill, S. (2022) · Health Services Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6773.14126 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Samartsidis, P., Seaman, S. R., Montagna, S., Charlett, A., Hickman, M., & Angelis, D. D. (2020) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · doi:10.1111/rssa.12569 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
“…time series observational data, including frequentist approaches based on the FA model (Gobillon and Magnac, 2016; Chan and Kwok, 2016; Xu, 2017; Li, 2018) and synthetic control-type approaches (Abadie et al. , 2010; Hsiao et al. , 2012; Doudchenko and Imbens, 2016; Ben-Michael et al. , 2018).”
An Alternative to Synthetic Control for Models with Many Covariates Under Sparsity
Bléhaut, M., D’Haultfœuille, X., L’Hour, J., & Tsybakov, A. B. (2023) · Springer proceedings in mathematics & statistics · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-30114-8_12 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Samartsidis, P., Seaman, S. R., Presanis, A. M., Hickman, M., & Angelis, D. D. (2019) · Apollo (University of Cambridge) · doi:10.17863/cam.40086 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Synthetic Learner: Model-free inference on treatments over time
Viviano, D., & Bradić, J. (2022) · Journal of Econometrics · doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.07.006 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“Alternatives for SC include ridge-regression (Ben-Michael et al., 2018), kernel balancing (Hazlett and Xu, 2018), structural models with auto-regressive elements (Blackwell and Glynn, 2018), generalized SC (Xu, 2017; Doudchenko and Imbens, 2016).”
MethodGottlieb, A., Harper, T., & Jung, H. (2024) · Law & Policy · doi:10.1111/lapo.12252 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Causal Research in Epidemiology
Matthay, E. C., Neill, D. B., Titus, A. R., Desai, S. M., Troxel, A. B., Cerdá, M., Diaz, I. M., Santacatterina, M., & Thorpe, L. E. (2025) · Current Epidemiology Reports · doi:10.1007/s40471-025-00359-5 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“For example, synthetic control methods create artificial control groups by taking weighted averages of the outcomes in untreated units, with the weights selected algorithmically by minimizing differences in confounder values between the treated and synthetic control units [113, 114].”
Learning lessons from over-crediting to ensure additionality in forest carbon credits
Swinfield, T., Williams, A. M., Coomes, D. A., Dales, M., Ferris, P., Guizar‐Coutiño, A., Hartup, J., Holland, J., Jaffer, S., Jones, J. P. G., et al. (2026) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-026-71552-3 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“Quasi-experimental methods are advancing all the time and methods exist which combine features of difference-in-differences and synthetic control, such as interactive fi xed-effects, augmented synthetic controls and synthetic difference-in-differences 49 – 51 .”
Connealy, N. T., Piza, E. L., Arietti, R. A., Mohler, G., & Carter, J. G. (2024) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-024-09617-w · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“…staggered adoption, including synthetic difference-in-difference (Arkhangelsky et al., 2021), partially pooled staggered synthetic control methods (Ben-Michael et al., 2021, 2022), and group time averages for two-way fixed effects for difference-in-difference with multiple time periods (Callaway…”
The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy
Cerqueti, R., Coppier, R., Girardi, A., & Ventura, M. (2021) · Econometrics Journal · doi:10.1093/ectj/utab027 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“…correction (Powel, 2018; Arkhangelesky et al., 2019; Chernozhukov et al., 2019b). consequently, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (see, e.g., Bonacini et al., 2020; Cameletti, 2020; Eckardt et al., 2020; Lolli et al., 2020; Palladino et al., 2020, Peracchi and Terlizzese, 2020).”
BackgroundThe effect of doubling the minimum wage on employment and earnings in Mexico
Campos-Vázquez, R. M., & Esquivel, G. (2021) · Economics Letters · doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110124 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Estimating the effects of a California gun control program with multitask Gaussian processes
Ben‐Michael, E., Arbour, D. T., Feller, A., Franks, A. M., & Raphael, S. P. (2023) · The Annals of Applied Statistics · doi:10.1214/22-aoas1654 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“There is a large literature on extensions and modifications to SCM; see Doudchenko and Imbens (2016) and Abadie (2019).”
MethodResultInfluentialSelf-citationThe effect of international sanctions on the size of the middle class in Iran
Farzanegan, M. R., & Habibi, N. (2025) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102749 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
The Impact of the German Fuel Discount on Prices at the Petrol Pump
Seiler, V., & Stoeckmann, N. (2023) · German Economic Review · doi:10.1515/ger-2022-0108 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Deregulation of public civilian gun carrying and violent crimes: A longitudinal analysis 1981–2019
Doucette, M. L., Crifasi, C. K., McCourt, A. D., Ward, J. A., Fix, R. L., & Webster, D. W. (2023) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12638 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Target Trial Emulation for Evaluating Health Policy
Seewald, N. J., McGinty, E. E., & Stuart, E. A. (2024) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m23-2440 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Casey, J. A., Tartof, S. Y., Davis, M. F., Nachman, K. E., Price, L. B., Liu, C. H., Yu, K. C., Gupta, V., Innes, G. K., Tseng, H. F., et al. (2023) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp11221 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“…a regularized outcome regression model (using ridge regression with the penalty parameter chosen via cross-validation) to improve pre-policy fi t. 26 In this analysis, control states are weighted — forming the synthetic control — such that their weighted average outcomes and covariates in the…”
InfluentialDoes the Swiss Debt Brake Induce Sound Federal Finances? A Synthetic Control Analysis
Pfeil, C. F., & Feld, L. P. (2023) · Public Finance Review · doi:10.1177/10911421231191566 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
“For further analyses, see Firpo and Possebom (2018) as well as Ben-Michael, Feller, and Rothstein (2021).”
The short‐term macroeconomic impact of populism: A case study of Poland
Brzeziński, M., & Sałach, K. (2024) · Economics and Politics · doi:10.1111/ecpo.12273 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Nurturing nature: The role of green finance in reviving urban biodiversity
Gao, Z., Zhao, Y., Li, L., & Hao, Y. (2025) · The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.qref.2025.102005 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Hospital quality risk standardization via approximate balancing weights
Keele, L. J., Ben‐Michael, E., Feller, A., Kelz, R. R., & Miratrix, L. W. (2023) · The Annals of Applied Statistics · doi:10.1214/22-aoas1629 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
“Here, we choose to penalize the sum of the squared weights,∑ Zi=j γ̂2i , though other penalties are possible; see Ben-Michael et al. (2021).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationThe Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal
Kedrosky, D., & Palma, N. P. G. (2025) · The Journal of Economic History · doi:10.1017/s0022050725100764 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Kesari, A. (2022) · Journal of Empirical Legal Studies · doi:10.1111/jels.12331 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
How Counterfactual Fairness Modelling in Algorithms Can Promote Ethical Decision-Making
Schutter, L. D., & Cremer, D. D. (2023) · International Journal of Human-Computer Interaction · doi:10.1080/10447318.2023.2247624 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
“Specifically, ML models can create synthetic con-trol conditions (i.e., a counterfactual scenario absent of a particular cause) that can be used to estimate causal effects (Ben-Michael et al., 2021).”
MethodTakahata, K., Suetsugu, H., Fukaya, K., & Shirota, S. (2024) · Environmental Data Science · doi:10.1017/eds.2024.5 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Do Foreign Buyer Taxes Affect House Prices?
Hartley, J., Ma, L., Wächter, S. M., & Zevelev, A. A. (2024) · Journal of Real Estate Research · doi:10.1080/08965803.2024.2376955 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
The Long-Run Effects of R&D Place-Based Policies: Evidence from Russian Science Cities
Schweiger, H., Stepanov, A., & Zacchia, P. (2022) · American Economic Journal Economic Policy · doi:10.1257/pol.20200289 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Introduction to the Special Section on Synthetic Control Methods
Abadie, A., & Cattaneo, M. D. (2021) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2021.2002600 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
“Uncertainty Quantification/Inference: Cattaneo et al. (2021), Chernozhukov et al. (2021), Shaikh and Toulis (2021) Inference with synthetic control estimators is often carried out by permutation techniques after adopting a benchmark distribution for the assignment mechanism (see, e.g., Abadie et al., 2010; Firpo and P…”
BackgroundMethodTownsend, T., Hamilton, L., Rivera‐Aguirre, A., Davis, C. S., Pamplin, J. R., Kline, D., Rudolph, K. E., & Cerdá, M. (2022) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwac122 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
- Authors
- Ben-Michael, E., Feller, A., & Rothstein, J.
- Affiliations
- Department of Statistics, Institute for Quantitative Social Sciences, Harvard University
- University of California System (US)
- Corresponding author
- Feller, Avi
- Venue
- Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2021-07-29
- Volume
- 116
- Issue
- 536
- Pages
- 1789-1803
- ISSN
- 0162-1459 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-274X
- OpenAlex
- W3123564515
- Cited by
- 462
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 93 · 2025: 110 · 2024: 79 · 2023: 69 · 2022: 58 · 2021: 33 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 44.66
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of the American Statistical Association (publishedVersion)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Figshare (cc-by)
- Funders
- Institute of Education Sciences (R305D200010)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Spatial and Panel Data Analysis
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Evaluation and Performance Assessment
- Keywords
- synthetic control method, treatment effect estimation, bias correction, ridge regression, factor models, regularization, overfitting, economic growth
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review