Student Perceptions Matter: Early Signs of Undergraduate Student Retention/Attrition

Abstract

Along with the massification of higher education and increasing costs, the pressure on institutions to retain all students to degree completion has been mounting. Early identification of students who are at risk of leaving an institution may help institutions to target and retain these students. This study investigated whether freshmen behaviors, attitudes, and expectations inform the chances of different enrollment patterns at a large, public, research extensive university. Based on data from an institutional survey given to freshmen students and subsequent enrollment data from the National Student Clearinghouse, this study used Multinomial Logistic Regression to predict four different enrollment patterns: continuously enrolled, stop-outs, transfer-outs, and drop-outs. Findings indicated that freshmen perceptions and certain demographic characteristics seem to matter in subsequent enrollment outcomes.