The most important thing about climate change
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Claims the paper makes
2 of 9 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 1 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Findingreasoning§ Deaths
The expected number of deaths from extreme climate change is in the range of tens of millions.
“Then the expectation of the number of deaths is 9 billion divided by a thousand, which is 9 million.If the probability is as high as one in a hundred, the expectation is 90 million.The expectation is, therefore, in the range of tens of millions of people killed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: If there is extreme warming, the earth will not be able to sustain anything approaching our present population; population would have to shrink by billions.
- Findingreasoning§ Deaths
Likely climate change will kill tens of millions of people.
“We must, therefore, expect likely climate change to kill tens of millions of people.”
- Also stated in: § Deaths · hedged
“I think we might estimate that half a million people will be killed each year by likely climate change; that would be a conservative figure.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites IPCC 1996
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites IPCC 2007b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites FAO 2009
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Also stated in: § Deaths · hedged
- Interpretationreasoning§ The very most important thing about climate change
In the case of climate change, resources will need to be transferred from future people to present people to compensate present people for reducing emissions.
“Therefore, resources will need to be transferred from future people to present people.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Achieving a Pareto superior state will often require resources to be transferred from some people to others.
- Interpretationreasoning§ Absences and the intuition of neutrality
The expected number of absences associated with extinction is vastly greater than the number of deaths expected from likely climate change.
“Even multiplied by a small chance of one in a hundred or one in a thousand, the expected number of 'absences' -as I shall call them -associated with extinction is vastly greater than the number of deaths to be expected from likely climate change.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ The intuition of neutrality is false
Whether extinction is good or bad depends on whether future people's well-being will on balance be above or below the neutral level.
“If their well-being will on balance be above the neutral level, extinction would be a bad thing.If their well-being will on balance be below the neutral level, extinction would be a good thing.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: There is a neutral level of lifetime well-being such that if B's extra person lives at that level, neither A nor B is better than the other.
- Interpretationreasoning§ Deaths
The killing badness does not suggest that the small chance of catastrophe should dominate expected value calculations.
“The first of two approachable badnesses I mentioned -killing -therefore, does not suggest that the small chance of catastrophe should dominate our calculations of expected value.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ Consequences of catastrophe
Extinction or a population collapse would prevent the existence of very many people who would otherwise have existed.
“The second more approachable badness -or at least putative badness -that extinction or a population collapse would cause is that very many people who would have existed will not exist at all.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: If there is extreme warming, the earth will not be able to sustain anything approaching our present population; population would have to shrink by billions.
- Interpretationreasoning§ The intuition of neutrality is false
There is no such thing as a neutral range of well-beings of the sort shown in Figure 1.
“It follows that there is no such thing as a neutral range of wellbeings of the sort shown in Figure 1.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ The intuition of neutrality is false
There can be at most one level of lifetime well-being such that, if B's extra person lives at that level, neither A nor B is better than the other; above it B is better than A, and below it B is worse than A.
“We have learnt that there can be at most one level of lifetime well-being such that, if B's extra person lives at that level, neither A nor B is better than the other.If the extra person lives above this level, B is better than A; if below, B is worse than A.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ The intuition of neutrality is false
Extinction would almost certainly be either a good thing or a bad thing, not a neutral thing.
“It tells us that extinction would almost certainly be either a good thing or a bad thing, and not a neutral thing.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: There is a neutral level of lifetime well-being such that if B's extra person lives at that level, neither A nor B is better than the other.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The weak version of the intuition of neutrality is false.
- Interpretationreasoning§ Deaths
The expected number of deaths from likely climate change is in the same ballpark as the expected number of deaths from the small chance of extinction.
“This puts the expected number of deaths that would result from likely climate change in the same ball-park -tens of millions -as the expected number that must be attributed to the small chance of the extinction of humanity.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ Expected utility theory and very bad possibilities
The small chance of catastrophe does not obviously dominate expected utility calculations.
“In this chapter, I want to argue no more than that: the small chance of catastrophe does not obviously dominate.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: A 10°C warming is likely to melt Antarctica and raise the seas by 70 metres.
- Interpretationreasoning§ The very most important thing about climate change
The problem of climate change can be solved without anyone making any sacrifice.
“The very most important thing is this fact: that the problem of climate change can be solved without anyone making any sacrifice.”
- Also stated in: § The very most important thing about climate change · plain
“The fact no sacrifice is necessary is a consequence of elementary economics.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § The very most important thing about climate change · plain
- Interpretationreasoning§ The intuition of neutrality is false
The strong version of the intuition of neutrality is false.
“The strong version is false for a reason that is illustrated in Figure 2.”
- Also stated in: § The intuition of neutrality is false · plain
“So the strong version of the intuition of neutrality entails a falsehood.Therefore, it is false itself.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § The intuition of neutrality is false · plain
- Premisecitation§ Expected utility theory and very bad possibilities
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report presents uncertainty almost entirely in terms of likelihood, not expectations.
“The uncertainty in the IPCC's report is presented almost entirely in terms of likelihood.The IPCC tells us what is likely to happen, what is very unlikely to happen, and so on.It does not tell us expectations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites IPCC 2007a-c
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 9
- May combine two claims. 9
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Premisecitation§ Expected utility theory and very bad possibilitiesWeitzman does not try to estimate the badness of a catastrophe; he assumes it would obviously be so bad that an estimate would be otiose.
“Weitzman does not try to estimate the badness of a catastrophe.He seems to assume it would obviously be so bad that an estimate would be otiose.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Weitzman (2009) source
Section IV, “The Key Role of a VSL-Like Parameter” (page unavailable), gives rough numerical estimates for catastrophic losses and says they can convey crude quantitative implications. Section VIII, “Conclusion” (page unavailable), cautions that estimating the extent of the worst imaginable catastrophe may be accurate only within an order of magnitude. Weitzman treats estimation as highly uncertain, not as unnecessary because the catastrophe is obviously bad. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Premisecitation§ Expected utility theory and very bad possibilitiesWeitzman claims that the most important thing about climate change is the small chance of catastrophe.
“Weitzman claims that the most important thing about climate change is the small chance of what he calls a 'catastrophe'.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Weitzman (2009) source
May combine two claims.
Findingreasoning§ The very most important thing about climate changeThe current generation is unwilling to make sacrifices, as shown by the experience in Copenhagen.
“But to reach C the current generation has to make sacrifices, and the experience in Copenhagen shows it is unwilling to do so.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationreasoning§ The intuition of neutrality is falseGeneral hedonism implies that the neutral level of well-being is the level of a life that contains no pleasure and no pain.
“According to general hedonism, the neutral level of well-being is therefore the level of a life that contains no pleasure and no pain.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationreasoning§ Consequences of catastropheExtreme climate change would cause billions of people to die early.
“The first of these more approachable sorts of badness is that billions of people would die early.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: If there is extreme warming, the earth will not be able to sustain anything approaching our present population; population would have to shrink by billions.
May combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ Expected utility theory and very bad possibilitiesThe IPCC report suggests as much as a 5 per cent probability of warming greater than about 8°C, and perhaps a 1-2 per cent probability of warming greater than 10°C.
“studies referred to in the report suggest there is as much as a 5 per cent probability of warming greater than about 8ºC, and perhaps a 1-2 per cent probability of warming greater than 10ºC (IPCC 2007a, section 9.6).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites IPCC 2007a, section 9.6
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ The very most important thing about climate changeThere is a Pareto superior state that is efficient, with no other state Pareto superior to it.
“Moreover, there is a Pareto superior state that is efficient, which means no other state is Pareto superior to it.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.
Interpretationnone given§ ConclusionWe cannot just assume the small chance of catastrophe is the most important thing about climate change; we must work out how bad the catastrophe would be.
“We have learnt, first, that we cannot just assume the small chance of catastrophe is the most important thing about climate change.It may or may not be.To know which, we must work out just how bad the catastrophe would be.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ The very most important thing about climate changeIf we reduce emissions and transfer resources correctly, future generations will end up better off on balance, and present people will be no worse off.
“We know from the elementary economic theory that, if we do the transfer correctly, future generations will end up better off on balance, and we shall be no worse off.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ Absences and the intuition of neutralityLikely climate change will also cause absences, and the expected number may be as great as the expected number associated with extinction.
“The expected numbers of these absences may well be as great as the expected number associated with extinction.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
Premisereasoning§ The very most important thing about climate changeClimate change is an externality.
“Climate change is what economists call an externality.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ The very most important thing about climate changeThe Stern Review compares outcome C with outcome A and finds C much better than A, recommending C.
“The Stern Review in effect compares C with A by means of a costbenefit analysis, and finds that C is much better than A. It recommends us to choose C.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Stern 2007
May combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ Ethics and climate changeEthics is relevant to public policy on climate change; economists such as Weitzman need ethics because their judgements about how governments ought to behave are ethical.
“Among the protagonists in the debate about public policy in response to climate change, many think ethics is irrelevant.Most of the protagonists are scientists and economists, and they think they need no contribution from moral philosophy.They are wrong.”
- Also stated in: § Ethics and climate change · plain
“Weitzman needs ethics.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Also stated in: § Ethics and climate change · plain
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
Interpretationreasoning§ The very most important thing about climate changeIt would be better to reduce emissions and not compensate ourselves than to reduce emissions and compensate ourselves.
“But it would be even better if we reduced our emissions and did not compensate ourselves for doing so.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationreasoning§ Ethics and climate changeWeitzman's judgement that the discount rate governments use should be derived from people's preferences about private savings is an ethical judgement.
“This judgement of Weitzman's is an ethical one, because it is about how governments ought to behave towards future generations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Weitzman (2007) source
May combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ The very most important thing about climate changeBecause climate change is an externality, there is a Pareto superior state we could move to, involving emitting less greenhouse gas.
“Because climate change is an externality, there is a Pareto superior state we could move to.It will involve emitting less greenhouse gas.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Externalities cause inefficiency.
The paper relies on this without support.
A 10°C warming is likely to melt Antarctica and raise the seas by 70 metres.
“A 10ºC warming is likely to melt Antarctica, and that will raise the seas by 70 metres.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
There is a neutral level of lifetime well-being such that if B's extra person lives at that level, neither A nor B is better than the other.
“I assume there is indeed such a level of well-being, and I call it the 'neutral level'.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The weak version of the intuition of neutrality is false.
“Still, in this chapter I shall take it for granted that the weak version is also false.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Externalities cause inefficiency.
“Elementary economics tells us that externalities cause inefficiency.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Achieving a Pareto superior state will often require resources to be transferred from some people to others.
“The theory of externalities tells us that achieving a Pareto superior state will often require resources to be transferred from some people to others.”
The paper relies on this without support.
If there is extreme warming, the earth will not be able to sustain anything approaching our present population; population would have to shrink by billions.
“One thing is sure: if there is extreme warming, the earth will not be able to sustain anything approaching our present population.Our population would have to shrink by billions.”
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- Authors
- Broome, J.
- Corresponding author
- Broome, John
- ORCID
- Broome, John
- Venue
- Public Policy: Why ethics matters
- Publisher
- ANU Press
- Published
- 2010-10
- OpenAlex
- W889953352
- Semantic Scholar
- b3b2cc85febeddf262613695145c4708efb8999d
- Cited by
- 65
- References
- 19
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- FWCI
- 8.59
- Type
- book chapter
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- ANU Press eBooks (publishedVersion)
- Oxford University Research Archive (ORA) (University of Oxford) (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Keywords
- climate change
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-11.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-11.
Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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