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A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility
Abstract
Altruistic parents choose fertility and consumption by maximizing a dynastic utility function. The maximization implies an arbitrage condition for consumption across generations, and equality between the benefit from an extra child and the child-rearing cost. These conditions imply that fertility in open economies depends positively on the world's long-term real interest rate, the degree of altruism, and the growth of child-survival probabilities; and negatively on the rate of technical progress and the growth rate of social security. The growth of per capita consumption across generations depends on changes in the child-rearing cost, but not on interest rates or time preference.
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Citations
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Self-citationChen, M. K. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.2.690 · Cited by 745
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Heckman, J. J., & Mosso, S. (2014) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-080213-040753 · Cited by 940
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BLOOM, D. E., & FINLAY, J. E. (2009) · Asian Economic Policy Review · doi:10.1111/j.1748-3131.2009.01106.x · Cited by 434
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The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999
Herzer, D., Strulik, H., & Vollmer, S. (2012) · Journal of Economic Growth · doi:10.1007/s10887-012-9085-6 · Cited by 170
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Clements, B., Dybczak, K., Gaspar, V., Gupta, S., & Soto, M. (2015) · Staff Discussion Notes · doi:10.5089/9781513544885.006 · Cited by 59
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Clarke, A. L., & Low, B. S. (2001) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00633.x · Cited by 53
A Re‐Appraisal of the Fertility Response to the Australian Baby Bonus
SINCLAIR, S., BOYMAL, J., & DE SILVA, A. (2012) · Economic Record · doi:10.1111/j.1475-4932.2012.00805.x · Cited by 25
Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?
Buckles, K., Hungerman, D., & Lugauer, S. (2018) · doi:10.3386/w24355 · Cited by 14
(2016) · Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging · doi:10.1016/bs.hespa.2016.05.001 · Cited by 7
Metadata
- Authors
- Becker, G. S., & Barro, R. J.
- Venue
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 1988-02
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2104095103
- Cited by
- 1,374
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 19.45
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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