Student or educator? Sign up with your school email and get 6 months of Pro free.
CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 196

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 48 of the 48 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population

Jones, Charles I.·2022·American Economic Review
DOI 10.1257/aer.20201605
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

In many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas. These models typically assume either a constant or growing population. However, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average. It is a distinct possibility that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. In standard models, this has profound implications: rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate for a population that vanishes. Moreover, even the optimal allocation can get trapped in this outcome if there are delays in implementing optimal policy. (JEL I12, J11, J13, O41)

Overview

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1257/aer.20201605

Cites

48 of 48 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Citations

Cites

Show all 48 references

Research works printed but not linked: 6

  1. Christiaans Thomas, 2011, Economics Bulletin, 31, 2667
  2. Grossman, Gene M., and Elhanan Helpman. 1991. Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  3. Jones, Charles I. 2003. "Population and Ideas: A Theory of Endogenous Growth." In Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics: In Honor of Edmund S. Phelps, edited by Philippe Aghion, Roman Frydman, Joseph Stiglitz and Michael Woodford, 498-521. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  4. Jones, Charles I. 2022b. "Replication Data for: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population." American Economic Association [publisher], Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]. https://doi.org/10.3886/E176683V1. · DOI
  5. 10.1016/j.red.2009.12.002 · DOI
  6. Segerstrom Paul, 1998, American Economic Review, 88, 1290

Cited by

See all 196

Metadata

Authors
Jones, C. I.
Affiliations
Stanford University, Graduate School of Business and NBER (email: )
Venue
American Economic Review
Publisher
American Economic Association
Published
2022-11-01
Volume
112
Issue
11
Pages
3489-3527
ISSN
0002-8282
DOI
10.1257/aer.20201605
Cited by
196
References
48
Language
en

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

How to cite

Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.

This page
CoChat. (2026). Citation check: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1257/aer.20201605
The paper
Jones, C. I. (2022). The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population. American Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20201605

Data sources

Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.