Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature

Cited by (386)

Items 301–386 of 386

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4. Anomaly-based Assessment of Semantic Consistency: Design and Evaluation of a Novel Probability-based Metric in Cooperation with a German Car Manufacturer
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   Timothy Hudson Rainer, Peter Sollich A, T Piotrowski, A C C Coolen, Hon Wai Benjamin Cheng, Colin Alexander Graham · 2012 · Emergency Medicine Journal
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   Huong Dieu Dang · 2014 · Springer eBooks
9. Dynamic Reliable Voting in Ensemble Learning
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10. Measuring Uncertainty
    Peter Gerald Moore · 1980 · Teaching Statistics
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13. Diagnostic Verification of Atmospheric Water Cycle Predicted by Regional Mesoscale Models and Ensemble Systems
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14. Risk: Measurement, Perception, and Management
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15. Visualization for Machine Learning
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16. On the provision, reliability, and use of hurricane forecasts on various timescales
    Alexander S. Jarman · 2014 · London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science)
17. Eliciting Subjective Probabilities from Individuals and Reducing Biases
    Bethany H. Mihajlovits, Jason R. W. Merrick · 2011 · Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science
18. Non-probabilistic odds and forecasting with imperfect models
    Kevin T. Judd · 2015 · arXiv (Cornell University)
19. References
    Thomas D. Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
20. Assessing subjective probabilities
    Peter Gerald Moore · 1981 · Omega
21. The probability wheel is guaranteed to work
    R.J. Korsan · 2002 · Conference proceedings/Conference proceedings - IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics
22. Empirical Confidence Intervals for WASDE Forecasts of Corn, Soybean and Wheat Prices
    Isengildina, Olga, Scott H. Irwin, Darrel Good · 2006 · AgEcon Search (University of Minnesota, USA)
23. RATING HISTORY, TIME, AND THE DYNAMIC ESTIMATION OF RATING MIGRATION HAZARD
    Huong Dieu Dang · 2010 · The Sydney eScholarship Repository (The University of Sydney)
24. Expert Systems’ Front End: Expert Opinion
    Roger M. Cooke · 1988 · Springer eBooks
25. Are objectivism and subjectivism compatible concepts?
    Peter Gerald Moore · 1980 · Journal of the Institute of Actuaries
26. Competitive Schemes that Induce Truthful Prediction
    D. Marc Kilgour, Yigal Gerchak · 2001
27. The Dynamic Estimation of Rating Migration Hazard
    Huong Dieu Dang, Graham H. Partington · 2010 · SSRN Electronic Journal
28. Real-world decision making in the upstream oil and gas industry—prescriptions for improvement
    Steve Mackie, Steve Begg, Chris Smith, Matthew B. Welsh · 2008 · The APPEA Journal
29. When Less Is More: Counterfactual Thinking and Satisfaction among Olympic Medalists
    Victoria Husted Medvec, Scott F. Madey, Thomas D. Gilovich · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
30. Decompositions of Proper Scores
    Jochen Bröcker · 2008 · arXiv (Cornell University)
31. Well‐Calibrated Forecasts
    Shulamith T. Gross · 2017 · Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online
32. Elicitation
    Lara J. Wolfson, Nicolás Bousquet · 2016 · Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online
33. Probability Forecasting
    A. P. Dawid · 2014 · Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online
34. STATISTICAL AND ECONOMIC TESTS OF EFFICIENCY IN THE ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE SOCCER BETTING MARKET
    Jonathon Brycki · 2009 · The Sydney eScholarship Repository (The University of Sydney)
35. Behavioral Economics und das Entscheidungsverhalten des Wirtschaftsprüfers : ein Forschungsüberblick
    Christopher W. Koch · 2004 · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics
36. Poisson, Bayes, Futebol e DeFinetti
    Marcelo Leme de Arruda · 2000
37. Well‐Calibrated Forecasts
    Morris H. DeGroot · 2005 · Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences
38. Generating Probabilities From Numerical Weather Forecasts by Logistic Regression
    Jochen Bröcker · 2009 · arXiv (Cornell University)
39. Meteorology, Statistics in
    Joe Gani · 2014 · Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online
40. Overconfidence and Format Dependence in Subjective Probability Intervals: Naive Estimation and Constrained Sampling
    Patrik Hansson · 2005 · KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology)
41. Predicting Failures of Point Forecasts
    Sarah Hallerberg, Jochen Bröcker, Hölger Kantz, Laura Smith · 2011 · arXiv (Cornell University)
42. Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup
    Kriti Jain, J. Neil Bearden, Allan Filipowicz · 2011 · SSRN Electronic Journal
43. The relationship between overconfidence and Anchoring
    J. de Win · 2016
44. Perceptions of effort and risk assessment
    Lisa Vangsness · 2017 · K-State Research Exchange (Kansas State University)
45. Making More Valid Estimates of Treatment Effect using Observational Data in Uncommon Disease. The Warfarin in Scleroderma-associated Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Model.
    Sindhu R. Johnson · 2012 · TSpace (University of Toronto)
46. Can Investors Profit from Information Diversity?
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47. Check yourself before you wreck yourself: Assessing discrete choice models through predictive simulations
    Timothy Brathwaite · 2018 · arXiv (Cornell University)
48. Anomaly-Based Duplicate Detection: A Probabilistic Approach
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49. Self-Confidence Measures of a Decision Support System Based on Bayesian Networks
    Marcin Koźniewski · 2019 · D-Scholarship@Pitt (University of Pittsburgh)
50. Equity and Higher Education: Essays on Performance-based Financial Aid, Community College Degree Completion, and Dual Enrollment
    Takeshi Yanagiura · 2020
51. On the Evaluation of Probability Forecasts: An Application to Qualitative Choice Models
    Senarath Dharmasena, David A. Bessler, Oral Capps · 2016 · SSRN Electronic Journal
52. Appendix C: Topical Bibliography
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53. References
    Ian T. Jolliffe, David B. Stephenson · 2011 · Wiley eBooks
54. Análise preqüencial
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55. References
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56. Judgments under Uncertainty
    Robert L. Winkler · 2014 · Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online
57. Elicitation
    Lara J. Wolfson · 2014 · Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online
58. Elicitation
    Lara J. Wolfson · 2005 · Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences
59. Meteorology, Statistics in
    Joe Gani · 2005 · Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences
60. Well‐Calibrated Forecasts
    Morris H. DeGroot · 2014 · Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online
61. Elicitation
    Lara J. Wolfson · 2004 · Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences
62. Using reliability diagrams to interpret the ‘signal-to-noise paradox’ in seasonal forecasts of the winter North Atlantic Oscilation
    Kristian Strømmen, Molly Macrae, Hannah M. Christensen · 2023
63. Multiclass Segmentation of Breast Tissue and Suspicious Findings: A Simulation-Based Study for the Development of Self-Steering Tomosynthesis
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64. Comment on essd-2022-364
    2023 · Earth system science data
65. Comment on essd-2022-364
    2023 · Earth system science data
66. Reply on RC1
    Fabio Oriani · 2023 · Earth system science data
67. Reply on RC2
    Fabio Oriani · 2023 · Earth system science data
68. Authors answer to the reviewers, essd-2022-364
    Fabio Oriani · 2023 · Earth system science data
69. Modelling Failures in Smart Grids by a Bilinear Logistic Regression Approach
    Enrico De Santis, Antonello Rizzi · 2023 · SSRN Electronic Journal
70. References
    Roman Krzysztofowicz · 2024
71. Probabilistic Forecast of the Ancillary Services Market's Results in a Central Dispatching Model
    Guillaume Koechlin, Filippo Bovera, Piercesare Secchi · 2024 · SSRN Electronic Journal
72. Breaking the T^(2/3) Barrier for Sequential Calibration
    Yuval Dagan, Constantinos Daskalakis, Maxwell Fishelson, Noah Golowich, Robert Kleinberg, Princewill Okoroafor · 2025 · ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing (STOC)
73. Ramsey’s Reliabilism
    Weng Hong Tang · 2025 · Ergo an Open Access Journal of Philosophy
74. Power-controlled reliability tests for assessing probabilistic classifier calibration
    Hongjun Sim, Hyukjun Gweon, Yu Hao, Reg J. Kulperger · 2025 · Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation
75. Calzone: A Python package for measuring calibration of probabilistic models for classification
    Kwok Lung Fan, Gene A. Pennello, Qi Liu, Nicholas Petrick, Ravi K. Samala, F. W. Samuelson, Yee Lam Elim Thompson, Qian Cao · 2025 · The Journal of Open Source Software
76. To Trust or Not to Trust: On Calibration in ML-Based Resource Allocation for Wireless Networks
    Rashika Raina, Nidhi Simmons, David E. Simmons, Michel Daoud Yacoub, Trung Q. Duong · 2025 · IEEE Transactions on Network Science and Engineering
77. The Bayesian Bandwagon
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78. The Effects of Effort-Feedback on Time Spent for Information Processing in Multi-criteria Decision Making
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79. Risk: Measurement, Perception, and Management
    Peter S. Zweifel, Roland Eisen · 2011 · Springer texts in business and economics
80. Validating Physiologically‐Based Pharmacokinetic Models Using the Continuous Ranked Probability Score: Beyond Being Correct on Average
    Laurens Sluijterman, Marjolein D. van Borselen, Rick Greupink, Joanna IntHout · 2026 · CPT Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology
81. Reliability in ensemble learning and learning from crowds
    Agus Budi Raharjo · 2019 · theses.fr (ABES)
82. Classification par méthodes d'apprentissage supervisé et faiblement supervisé d'images multimodales pour l'aide au diagnostic du lentigo malin en dermatologie
    Romain Cendre · 2021 · theses.fr (ABES)
83. Examining potential behavioral and psychological consequences of unjustified confidence in knowledge and in forecasting
    Rowan Kemmerly, Andrew M. Parker, Annie H. Somerville, Eric R. Stone · 2026 · Judgment and Decision Making
84. When Data Augmentation Improves the Calibration and Accuracy of Deep Neural Networks
    Morgan May, Simon J. Caton, Pierpaolo Dondio · 2026 · IEEE Access
85. Calibration Results for Established Post-hoc Calibration Methods
    Wenjian Huang · 2025 · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
86. Can Subjective Exchange Rate Forecasts be Improved?
    Mary E. Wilkie, Andrew C. Pollock · 1993 · Contributions to management science