Cited by 386Meteorological Phenomena and SimulationsForecasting Techniques and ApplicationsClimate variability and models

Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature

Murphy, Allan H., Winkler, Robert L.·1977·Applied Statistics

Abstract

Allan H. Murphy, Robert L. Winkler, Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), Vol. 26, No. 1 (1977), pp. 41-47

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Crossref · 10.2307/2346866

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  • Sharpness, now commonly called refinement loss and also known as resolution, is the loss due to predicting the same probability for instances from different classes.

    “Sharpness, which is now commonly called refinement loss and was also known as resolution (Murphy & Winkler, 1977), is the loss due to predicting the same probability for instances from different classes.”
  • Validity, later known as reliability, is now often called calibration loss.

    “Validity, later known as reliability (Murphy & Winkler, 1977), is now often called calibration loss (Kull & Flach, 2015).”

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Authors
Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L.
Affiliations
  • NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
  • Indiana University Bloomington (US)
Venue
Applied Statistics
Publisher
JSTOR
Published
1977
Volume
26
Issue
1
Pages
41
ISSN
0035-9254 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W1213593253
Cited by
386
References
9
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 8
FWCI
3.26
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics) (publishedVersion)
Funders
National Science Foundation
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Keywords
forecast reliability, precipitation forecasting, temperature prediction

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