Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature
Abstract
Allan H. Murphy, Robert L. Winkler, Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), Vol. 26, No. 1 (1977), pp. 41-47
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Sharpness, now commonly called refinement loss and also known as resolution, is the loss due to predicting the same probability for instances from different classes.
“Sharpness, which is now commonly called refinement loss and was also known as resolution (Murphy & Winkler, 1977), is the loss due to predicting the same probability for instances from different classes.”
From Classifier calibration: a survey on how to assess and improve predicted class probabilities (2023) · cites this paper as Murphy & Winkler, 1977
Validity, later known as reliability, is now often called calibration loss.
“Validity, later known as reliability (Murphy & Winkler, 1977), is now often called calibration loss (Kull & Flach, 2015).”
From Classifier calibration: a survey on how to assess and improve predicted class probabilities (2023) · cites this paper as Murphy & Winkler, 1977
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- Authors
- Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Indiana University Bloomington (US)
- ORCID
- Winkler, Robert L.
- Venue
- Applied Statistics
- Publisher
- JSTOR
- Published
- 1977
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 41
- ISSN
- 0035-9254 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1213593253
- Cited by
- 386
- References
- 9
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 8
- FWCI
- 3.26
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics) (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- forecast reliability, precipitation forecasting, temperature prediction
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