Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature
Murphy, Allan H., Winkler, Robert L.·1977·Applied Statistics
DOI 10.2307/2346866
Cited by (386)
Items 101–200 of 386
- Fall Risk Assessment Tools for Elderly Living in the Community: Can We Do Better?Pierpaolo Palumbo, Luca Palmerini, Stefania Bandinelli, Lorenzo Chiari · 2015 · PLoS ONE
- Local Temperature Scaling for Probability CalibrationZhipeng Ding, Xu Han, Peirong Liu, Marc Niethammer · 2021 · IEEE/CVF International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV)
- Do Analysts Overreact?Werner F. M. De Bondt, Richard H. Thaler · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- A valid and reliable belief elicitation method for Bayesian priorsSindhu R. Johnson, GEORGE A. TOMLINSON, GILLIAN A. HAWKER, John Thomas Granton, Haddas A. Grosbein, Brian Michael Feldman · 2009 · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
- Expertise in Decision MakingRichard P. Larrick, D. Feiler · 2015 · Wiley eBooks
- The Expected Value of Information and the Probability of SurpriseJames K. Hammitt, Alexander Shlyakhter · 1999 · Risk Analysis
- Reliability, Sufficiency, and the Decomposition of Proper ScoresJochen Bröcker · 2008 · MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society)
- Assessment, criticism and improvement of imprecise subjective probabilities for a medical expert systemDavid J. Spiegelhalter, Rodney C. G. Franklin, Kate Bull · 1990 · Machine intelligence and pattern recognition
- Reliability Theories of Justified CredenceWeng Hong Tang · 2016 · Mind
- Evaluating Quantile AssessmentsVictor Richmond Jose, R. Winkler · 2009 · Operational Research
- Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of expert predictions under uncertainty: predicting the outcomes of ecological researchM. McBride, F. Fidler, M. Burgman · 2012 · Diversity and Distributions
- A multiple crop model ensemble for improving broad-scale yield prediction using Bayesian model averagingXiao Huang, Guorui Huang, Chaoqing Yu, Shaoqiang Ni, Le Yu · 2017 · Field Crops Research
- Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They “Should”Boaz Keysar, Dale J. Barr · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- Durability Bias in Affective ForecastingDaniel T. Gilbert, Elizabeth C. Pinel, Timothy D. Wilson, Stephen J. Blumberg, Thalia P. Wheatley · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- Adult age differences in the realism of confidence judgments: Overconfidence, format dependence, and cognitive predictors.Patrik Hansson, Michael Rönnlund, Peter Juslin, Lars‐Göran Nilsson · 2008 · Psychology and Aging
- The Improvement of Probability JudgementsD. V. Lindley · 1982 · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (General)
- Media Bias and ReputationMatthew Aaron Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro · 2005 · SSRN Electronic Journal
- Eliciting prior information to enhance the predictive performance of bayesian graphical modelsMadigan, David, Gavrin, Jonathan, Raftery, Adrian E. · 1995 · Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods
- Assessing Probability Assessors: Calibration and Refinement.Morris H. DeGroot, Stephen E. Fienberg · 1981 · Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC)
- Unpacking the Future: A Nudge Toward Wider Subjective Confidence IntervalsKriti Jain, Kanchan Mukherjee, J. Neil Bearden, Anil Gaba · 2013 · Management Science
- Elicitation of Probabilities Using Competitive Scoring RulesD. Marc Kilgour, Yigal Gerchak · 2004 · Decision Analysis
- Probability Judgment across CulturesJ. Frank Yates, Ju‐Whei Lee, Winston R. Sieck, Incheol Choi, Paul C. Price · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- Uncertainty Quantification and Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models: A SurveyLiu, Xiaoou, Chen, Tiejin, Da, Longchao, Chen, Chacha, Lin, Zhen, Wei, Hua · 2025 · Proceedings of the 31st ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining V.2
- Improving the Consistency of Conditional Probability Assessments for Forecasting and Decision MakingHerbert Moskowitz, Rakesh Kumar Sarin · 1983 · Management Science
- Heuristics and Biases in ApplicationBaruch Fischhoff · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- Clinical versus Actuarial JudgmentRobyn M. Dawes, David Faust, Paul E. Meehl · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment HeuristicNicholas Epley, Thomas D. Gilovich · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- MAKING BUSINESS PREDICTIONS BY COMBINING HUMAN AND MACHINE INTELLIGENCE IN PREDICTION MARKETSYiftach Nagar, Thomas W. Malone · 2011 · Journal of the Association for Information Systems
- Probabilistic runoff volume forecasting in risk-based optimization for RTC of urban drainage systemsRoland Löwe, Luca Vezzaro, Peter Steen Mikkelsen, Morten Grum, Henrik Madsen · 2016 · Environmental Modelling & Software
- Calibration and the Expert ProblemSimon French · 1986 · Management Science
- Artificial Intelligence-Enabled End-To-End Detection and Assessment of Alzheimer’s Disease Using VoiceAgbavor, Felix, Liang, Hualou · 2022 · Brain Sciences
- A Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Approach to Seasonal PredictionYoung‐Mi Min, Vladimir N. Kryjov, Chung-Kyu Park · 2008 · Weather and Forecasting
- Reliability and Validity in Expert JudgmentFergus Bolger, George Wright · 2007 · Springer eBooks
- Like Goes with Like: The Role of Representativeness in Erroneous and Pseudo-Scientific BeliefsThomas D. Gilovich, Kenneth Savitsky · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease: The Mediating Effect of Ease of ImagerySteven J. Sherman, Robert B. Cialdini, Donna F. Schwartzman, Kim D. Reynolds · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- Use of expert judgment in exposure assessment: Part 2. Calibration of expert judgments about personal exposures to benzeneK. Walker, P. Catalano, J. Hammitt, J. Evans · 2003 · Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology
- Remarks on Support Theory: Recent Advances and Future DirectionsLyle A. Brenner, Derek J. Koehler, Yuval Rottenstreich · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy‐driven jetThomas Frame, Maarten H. P. Ambaum, Suzanne L. Gray, John A. Methven · 2011 · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
- Models of human behaviour and confidence in judgement: A reviewMarcus J. O’Connor · 1989 · International Journal of Forecasting
- Understanding Calibration of Deep Neural Networks for Medical Image ClassificationA. Sambyal, Usma Niyaz, N. C. Krishnan, Deepti R. Bathula · 2023 · Comput. Methods Programs Biomed.
- Detecting inappropriate access to electronic health records using collaborative filteringAditya Krishna Menon, Xiaoqian Jiang, Jihoon Kim, Jaideep S. Vaidya, Lucila Ohno-machado A · 2013 · Machine Learning
- Uncertainty modelling and analysis : theory and applicationsBilal M. Ayyub, Madan M. Gupta · 1994 · Elsevier eBooks
- Human Cognitive Capabilities, Representativeness, and Ground Rules for ResearchWard Edwards · 1983 · Advances in psychology
- The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random SequencesThomas D. Gilovich, Robert P. Vallone, Amos Tversky · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- MODEL SELECTION AND ACCOUNTING FOR MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN LINEAR REGRESSION MODELSAdrian E. Raftery, David Madigan, Jennifer A. Hoeting · 2007
- A cautionary note on modeling growth trends in longitudinal data.Goran Kuljanin, Michael T. Braun, Richard P. DeShon · 2011 · Psychological Methods
- Rethinking the training of intelligence analystsWelton Chang, P. Tetlock · 2016 · Intelligence & National Security
- Probabilistic Verification of Storm Prediction Center Convective OutlooksGregory R. Herman, Erik R. Nielsen, Russ S. Schumacher · 2017 · Weather and Forecasting
- The value of climate information: A decision‐analytic approachRobert L. Winkler, Allan H. Murphy, Richard W. Katz · 1983 · Journal of Climatology
- A New Paradigm for Medium-Range Severe Weather Forecasts: Probabilistic Random Forest–Based PredictionsAaron J. Hill, Russ S. Schumacher, Israel L. Jirak · 2022 · Weather and Forecasting
- Overweighting of Small ProbabilitiesZach Burns, Andrew Chiu, G. Y. Wu · 2011 · Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science
- Deep Learning for Postprocessing Global Probabilistic Forecasts on Subseasonal Time ScalesNina Horat, Sebastian Lerch · 2024 · Monthly Weather Review
- Managers' Perceptual Errors Revisited: the Role of Knowledge CalibrationKishore Gopalakrishna Pillai · 2009 · British Journal of Management
- Enforcing calibration in ensemble postprocessingDaniel S. Wilks · 2017 · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
- Assessment of the long‐lead probabilistic prediction for the Asian summer monsoon precipitation (1983–2011) based on the APCC multimodel system and a statistical modelSoo‐Jin Sohn, Young‐Mi Min, June‐Yi Lee, Chi‐Yung Tam, In‐Sik Kang, Bin Wang, Joong‐Bae Ahn, Toshio Yamagata · 2011 · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
- On optimal sequential prediction for general processesAndrew B. Nobel · 2003 · IEEE Transactions on Information Theory
- Stated Beliefs and Play in Normal Form GamesMiguel Costa-Gomes, Georg Weizsäcker · 2008 · SSRN Electronic Journal
- An expert judgment model to predict early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United StatesThomas McAndrew, Nicholas G Reich · 2022 · PLoS Computational Biology
- Cognitive Biases in the Petroleum Industry: Impact and RemediationMatthew B. Welsh, Reidar B. Bratvold, Steve Begg · 2005 · SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition
- Some Remarks on the Reliability of Categorical Probability ForecastsJochen Bröcker · 2008 · Monthly Weather Review
- Expert Judgment in Software Estimation During the Bid Phase of a Project -- An Exploratory SurveyPedro Faria, Eduardo Miranda · 2012 · Joint Conference of the International Workshop on Software Measurement and the International Conference on Software Process and Product Measurement (IWSM-MENSURA)
- Empirical Evaluation of Prior Beliefs About Frequencies: Methodology and a Case Study in Congenital Heart DiseaseDavid J. Spiegelhalter, Nomi L. Harris, Kate Bull, Rodney C. G. Franklin · 1994 · Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Innovations in the Science and Practice of Decision Analysis: The Role ofManagement ScienceJames S. Dyer, James E. Smith · 2020 · Management Science
- Calibrating Deep Neural Networks by Pairwise ConstraintsJiacheng Cheng, Nuno M. Vasconcelos · 2022 · IEEE Computer Society Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition/Proceedings - IEEE Computer Society Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition/Proceedings
- Crystal Balls and Black Boxes: What Makes a Good Forecast?Carole Turley Voulgaris · 2019 · Journal of Planning Literature
- The added value of convection‐permitting ensemble forecasts of sea breeze compared to a Bayesian forecast driven by the global ensembleCarlo Cafaro, Thomas Frame, John A. Methven, Nigel M. Roberts, Jochen Bröcker · 2019 · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
- On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecastsJochen Bröcker · 2008 · Nonlinear processes in geophysics
- Expert judgments of political riskinessJeryl L. Mumpower, Steven G. Livingston, Thomas J. Lee · 1987 · Journal of Forecasting
- A signal detection framework for the evaluation of probabilistic forecastsKeith R. Levi · 1985 · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
- Pan-Arctic sea ice concentration from SAR and passive microwaveTore Wulf, Jørgen Buus-Hinkler, Suman Singha, Hoyeon Shi, Matilde Brandt Kreiner · 2024 · The Cryosphere
- How Good Are Fast and Frugal Heuristics?Gerd Gigerenzer, Jean Czerlinski, Laura F. Martignon · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- An elicitation method for multiple linear regression modelsPaul H. Garthwaite, James Dickey · 1991 · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
- Judgments under UncertaintyRobert L. Winkler · 2005 · Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences
- Metaknowledge of Experts Versus Nonexperts: Do Experts Know Better What They Do and Do Not Know?Yuyan Han, David Alan Dunning · 2024 · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
- Resistance of Personal Risk Perceptions to Debiasing InterventionsNeil D. Weinstein, William M. P. Klein · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- Calibrate: Interactive Analysis of Probabilistic Model OutputPeter Xenopoulos, João Rulff, Luís Gustavo Nonato, Brian Barr, Claudio T. Silva · 2022 · IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics
- Credible uses of the distributed interactive simulation (DIS) systemJames Dewar, James S. Hodges, Desmond Saunders‐Newton, Steven C. Bankes, Thomas W. Lucas, Patrick Vye · 1996
- Prequential analysis of stock market returnsDavid A. Bessler, Robert Ruffley · 2004 · Applied Economics
- Calibration and Expert TestingWojciech Olszewski · 2014 · Handbook of game theory and economic applications
- The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of ConfidenceDale Griffin, Amos Tversky · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- Calibrated Prediction with Covariate Shift via Unsupervised Domain AdaptationSangdon Park, Osbert Bastani, James Weimer, Insup Lee · 2020 · International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics
- Probability ForecastingA. P. Dawid · 2005 · Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences
- The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future DirectionsSarah C. Jones, Patrick A. Harr, Jim Abraham, Lance F. Bosart, Peter J. Bowyer, Jenni L. Evans, Deborah E. Hanley, Barry N. Hanstrum, Robert E. Hart, François Lalaurette et al. · 2003 · Weather and Forecasting
- Theory-Driven Reasoning about Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World PoliticsPhilip E. Tetlock · 2002 · Cambridge University Press eBooks
- Quality Control for Scientific Research: Addressing Reproducibility, Responsiveness, and RelevanceDouglas Hubbard, A. Carriquiry · 2019 · American Statistician
- Empirical confidence intervals for USDA commodity price forecastsOlga Isengildina‐Massa, Scott H. Irwin, Darrel Good, Luca L. Massa · 2010 · Applied Economics
- Judgmental forecasting of univariate time seriesNigel Harvey · 1988 · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
- Combining human and machine intelligence for making predictionsYiftach Nagar · 2013 · DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
- Understanding Predictability of Daily Southeast U.S. Precipitation Using Explainable Machine LearningPegion, Kathy, Becker, Emily J., Kirtman, Ben P. · 2022 · Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems
- Number Preference, Precision and Implicit ConfidenceMatthew B. Welsh, Danielle Navarro, Steve Begg · 2011 · eScholarship (California Digital Library)
- Evaluating probabilistic classifiers: The triptychTimo Dimitriadis, Tilmann Gneiting, Alexander I. Jordan, Peter Vogel · 2023 · International Journal of Forecasting
- Reliability of Regression-Corrected Climate ForecastsMichael K. Tippett, Timothy DelSole, Anthony G. Barnston · 2014 · Journal of Climate
- Diagnostic systems by model selection: a case studyLauritzen, S. L., Thiesson, B., Spiegelhalter, D. J. · 1994 · Lecture Notes in Statistics
- Forecast sufficiency characteristic: Construction and applicationRoman Krzysztofowicz, Dou Long · 1991 · International Journal of Forecasting
- Are experts overconfident?: An interdisciplinary reviewCarmen Julia Sanchez, David Alan Dunning · 2023 · Research in Organizational Behavior
- Confidence Calibration: An Introduction With Application to Quality ImprovementBehrang Amini, Roland L. Bassett, Tamara Miner Haygood, Kevin W. McEnery, Michael L. Richardson · 2020 · Journal of the American College of Radiology
- A Predictive Approach to Selecting the Size of a Clinical Trial, Based on Subjective Clinical OpinionDavid J. Spiegelhalter, Laurence S. Freedman · 1988 · Recent results in cancer research/Recent Results in Cancer Research
- Weathering Risk: Uncertainty, Weather Forecasting, and ExpertisePhaedra Daipha · 2012 · Sociology Compass
- Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation ForecastsJ. Eric Bickel, Seong Dae Kim · 2008 · Monthly Weather Review
- Extraneous expert informationRobert T. Clemen · 1985 · Journal of Forecasting