Expo 86: An Escalation Prototype

Abstract

The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of the librarians at Simon Fraser University, the University of British Columbia, the Vancouver Public Library, and the archivist at the Expo 86 offices. The authors would also like to express appreciation to Nick Steadman, Ian Mulgrew, Mark Wexler, several Expo 86 staff members who preferred not to be cited by name, and ASO's associate editor and anonymous reviewers. This paper examines British Columbia's decision to host a world's fair (Expo 86) in Vancouver. Despite rapidly increasing deficit projections (from a $6-million projected loss in 1978 to over a $300-million projected loss in 1985), the provincial government remained steadfast in its plans to hold Expo. Expo is therefore a visible and prototypical example of the escalation of commitment, a phenomenon subject to extensive laboratory research in recent years. By examining the Expo case in some detail, this study provides field grounding for previous investigations of escalation. The case not only illustrates the frequently studied processes of self-justification and biased information processing but also highlights the potential importance of institutional explanations of escalation. New theory is proposed that integrates determinants of escalation from several levels of analysis over time. It is proposed that escalation starts with project and psychological forces but can evolve over time into a more structurally determined phenomenon.*