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Shortcuts Versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections
Abstract
Voters in mass elections are notorious for their apparent lack of information about relevant political matters. While some scholars argue that an electorate of well-informed voters is necessary for the production of responsive electoral outcomes, others argue that apparently ignorant voters will suffice because they can adapt their behavior to the complexity of electoral choice. To evaluate the validity of these arguments, I develop and analyze a survey of California voters who faced five complicated insurance reform ballot initiatives. I find that access to a particular class of widely available information shortcuts allowed badly informed voters to emulate the behavior of relatively well informed voters. This finding is suggestive of the conditions under which voters who lack encyclopedic information about the content of electoral debates can nevertheless use information shortcuts to vote as though they were well informed.
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“In reality, most citizens know relatively little about many criminal justice institutions, yet public judgments of policy interventions often emerge from limited, context-specific information (34, 35).”
From Does civilian oversight impact police legitimacy? (2025) · cites this paper as [34]
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BackgroundCitizen Support for Hospital Privatization: A Hierarchical Cross-National Analysis
Battaglio, R. P., & Legge, J. S. (2008) · Public Organization Review · doi:10.1007/s11115-007-0045-0 · Cited by 14
“In essence, citizens often rely on “information shortcuts” when they do not possess the relevant information about the policy issue ( Lupia 1994 ).”
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Gastil, J., Braman, D., Kahan, D. M., & Slovic, P. (2005) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.834264 · Cited by 14
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Benesch, C., Heim, R., Schelker, M., & Schmid, L. (2022) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/723020 · Cited by 13
“In order to reduce information costs, party labels provide cues and information shortcuts (Lupia 1992, 1994).”
BackgroundChiefs’ Endorsements and Voter Behavior
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Chapter 5 Strategic Politicians, Emotional Citizens, and the Rhetoric of Prediction
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Missing Effect of Party Cues in Japan: Evidence from a Survey Experiment
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“For voters with bounded rationality to emulate the formation of policy preferences under full information, party cues provide effective heuristics (Mondak, 1993; Lupia, 1994; Lupia and McCubbins, 1998; Schaffner and Streb, 2002; Levendusky, 2010; Bullock, 2011).”
BackgroundShared Stigma: The Effect of LGBT Status on Attitudes About the Opioid Epidemic
Haeder, S. F., Sylvester, S. M., & Callaghan, T. (2021) · World Medical & Health Policy · doi:10.1002/wmh3.391 · Cited by 13
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“Citizens may maintain the capacity to overcome this relative ignorance through the employment of core values and principles (Alvarez & Brehm, 1995, 2002) or heuristics (Lau & Redlawsk, 2001; Lupia, 1994; Lupia & McCubbins, 1998; Popkin, 1991), but their usage relies heavily on the citizen’s level of ambivalence toward…”
BackgroundMisleading ballot position cue: Party voting in Korea's nonpartisan local elections
Song, B. K. (2019) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2019.01.002 · Cited by 13
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Müller, S., & Jankowski, M. (2018) · Journal of Elections Public Opinion and Parties · doi:10.1080/17457289.2018.1515211 · Cited by 13
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InfluentialRethinking American Electoral Democracy
Streb, M. J. (2008) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780203931080 · Cited by 13
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Goodman, C., & Murray, G. R. (2007) · American Politics Research · doi:10.1177/1532673x07303755 · Cited by 13
“…have been found to take cues from racial or ethnic identification (Lineberry & Fowler, 1967; Pomper, 1966; Squire & Smith, 1988), name recognition or incumbency (Jacobson, 2004; Jewell & Breaux, 1988; Lineberry & Fowler, 1967; Schaffner, Streb, & Wright, 2001), and group endorsements (Lupia, 1994).”
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Kriesi, H. (2005) · Acta Politica · doi:10.1057/palgrave.ap.5500114 · Cited by 13
Mobilizing Interests: Group Participation and Competition in Direct Democracy Elections
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“Not only do groups qualify measures for the ballot, but they also wage the campaigns for and against their passage (Garrett and Gerber 2001; Gerber 1996) and provide cues to voters (Bowler and Donovan 1998; Lupia 1994; Nicholson 2011).”
BackgroundBoehmke, F., Branton, R., Dillingham, G., & Witmer, R. (2012) · Journal of Politics · doi:10.1017/s0022381612000321 · Cited by 13
Evidence on voter preferences from unrestricted choice referendums
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“Voters may take cues from positions taken by teachers, community leaders, and friends to select a preferred millage rate (see Lupia, 1994 ).”
BackgroundBeyond Expectations: Effects of Early Elections in U.S. Presidential Nomination Contests
Donovan, T., & Hunsaker, R. (2009) · PS Political Science & Politics · doi:10.1017/s1049096509090040 · Cited by 13
“In this regard, presidential nomination elections may be seen as a relatively low-information multi-candidate choice setting where voters must rely upon readily available cues1 when making decisions (e.g., Lupia 1994; McDermott 1997; 1998).”
BackgroundDemocratic valuation (DV): Using majority voting principles to value public services
Schläpfer, F. (2015) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.11.022 · Cited by 13
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“…of being informed and going to the polls [Frey, 1994] and may induce voters to cast votes as if their vote was decisive [Shapiro and Deacon, 1996; Mueller, 2003] and as if they were well informed about the personal consequences of the proposed policies [Lupia, 1994; Lupia and Matsusaka, 2004].”
BackgroundPolicy Design and Domestic Support for International BailoutsPreprint
Bechtel, M. M., Hainmueller, J., & Margalit, Y. M. (2012) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2163594 · Cited by 13
Beautiful PoliticiansPreprint
King, A., & Leigh, A. (2007) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.961138 · Cited by 13
“Since these cards feature the same photo of the candidate that we use in our empirical analysis, we can be sure that our measure of beauty matches that of the voter.”
Influence from Abroad: Foreign Voices, the Media, and U.S. Public Opinion
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Exposure to English as a determinant of support for Quebec independence in the 2018 Quebec elections
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Shulman, H. C., Sweitzer, M. D., Bullock, O. M., Coronel, J. C., Bond, R. M., & Poulsen, S. (2022) · Political Communication · doi:10.1080/10584609.2022.2092920 · Cited by 12
How usability of policy transparency promotes citizen compliance: evidence from a survey experiment
Liu, B., He, S., Lin, S., Zhang, J., & Xue, B. (2023) · Journal of Chinese Governance · doi:10.1080/23812346.2023.2166568 · Cited by 12
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Aldashev, G. (2010) · Quarterly Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1561/100.00009009 · Cited by 12
Colombo, C. (2017) · Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0032321717723486 · Cited by 15
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From the Folk Theory to Symbolic Politics: Toward a More Realistic Understanding of Voter Behavior
Mendelberg, T. (2018) · Critical Review · doi:10.1080/08913811.2018.1448515 · Cited by 12
Bargain Shopping: How Candidate Sex Lowers the Cost of Voting
Ondercin, H. L., & Fulton, S. A. (2019) · Politics & Gender · doi:10.1017/s1743923x19000254 · Cited by 12
“The ability of voters to use heuristics effectively is highly debated by scholars (Achen and Bartels 2017; Kuklinski and Quirk 2000; Lau and Redlawsk 2001; Lupia 1994).”
BackgroundEconomic Voting in Direct Democracy: A Case Study of the 2016 Italian Constitutional Referendum
Leininger, A. (2019) · Politics and Governance · doi:10.17645/pag.v7i2.1917 · Cited by 12
“One of the main findings in this line of research is that low-information voters can mimic informed voters’ choices by relying on cues from governments, parties and interest groups (Christin, Hug, & Sciarini, 2002; Clarke, Elliott, & Stewart, 2017; Lupia, 1994).”
BackgroundThe Colombian Anti-Corruption Referendum: Why It Failed?
Haman, M. (2019) · Colombia Internacional · doi:10.7440/colombiaint100.2019.08 · Cited by 12
Roy, J., Singh, S. P., & Fournier, P. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108877428 · Cited by 16
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“Research has shown that voters who know little about the details of ballot propositions can use shortcuts to make decisions that emulate those of well-informed voters (e.g., Lupia, 1994).”
BackgroundChristian Right Horticulture: Grassroots Support in a Republican Primary Campaign
Djupe, P. A., & Neiheisel, J. R. (2008) · Politics and Religion · doi:10.1017/s1755048308000047 · Cited by 12
Information Heterogeneity, Complexity and the Vote Calculus
Roy, J. (2011) · Journal of Elections Public Opinion and Parties · doi:10.1080/17457289.2010.537342 · Cited by 12
“The arguments presented above are echoed in the literature pertaining to the use of voting heuristics (see Althaus, 1998; Bartels, 1996; Cutler, 2002a; Gidengil et al., 2004; Lau & Redlawsk, 2001, 2006; Lupia, 1994; Lupia & McCubbins, 1998; Popkin, 1991; Sniderman et al., 1991a; Zaller, 1991).”
BackgroundCan Voters Be Equal? A Cross-national Analysis
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“10 Cf. especially Lau and Redlawsk (1997); Lupia (1994); McKelvey and Ordeshook (1986, 1990).”
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Bowler, S. (2015) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.02.002 · Cited by 12
Crampton, E., Grove, W. A., & Somin, I. (2015) · Cited by 12
Reality Bites: The Limits of Framing Effects for Salient and Contested Policy IssuesPreprint
Bechtel, M. M., Hainmueller, J., Hangartner, D., & Helbling, M. (2012) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2025552 · Cited by 12
Personality Traits and Cognitive Ability in Political SelectionPreprint
Jokela, M. M., Meriläinen, J., Tukiainen, J., & von Schoultz, Å. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4166034 · Cited by 12
Religious Mobilization and the Selection of Political Elites: Evidence from Postwar Italy
Pulejo, M. (2023) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12820 · Cited by 11
Kershaw, J. C., Nolden, A., Brown, A. R. C., Hites, T., & Jefferies, L. (2023) · Food Quality and Preference · doi:10.1016/j.foodqual.2023.105039 · Cited by 10
Analogical Framing: How Policy Comparisons Alter Political Support for Health Care Reform
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“…by providing cues about which evaluative criteria citizens should prioritize when they utilize informational shortcuts, or heuristics, to approximate well-reasoned choices (e.g., Amira et al., 2018; Cosmides & Tooby, 1994; Gigerenzer, 2008; Jensen & Petersen, 2017; Lupia, 1994; Lupia et al., 1998).”
BackgroundGrewenig, E., Lergetporer, P., Werner, K., & Woessmann, L. (2020) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2020.09.006 · Cited by 10
Turgeon, M., & Rennó, L. (2010) · Opinião Pública · doi:10.1590/s0104-62762010000100006 · Cited by 11
One voter and two choices: The impact of electoral context on the 2011 UK referendum
Stevens, D. P., & BANDUCCI, S. A. (2012) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2012.10.005 · Cited by 11
Political deliberation and the challenge of bounded rationality
Smith, A. F. (2013) · Politics Philosophy & Economics · doi:10.1177/1470594x13488355 · Cited by 13
“For helpful discussions of the utilization of biases in political situations, see Lupia (1994) and Popkin (1991).”
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“As a result of this dynamic, the general public is presented with two dominant themes, or cues, which they can use as cognitive shortcuts in the decision-making process (Downs, 1957; Lupia, 1994; Popkin, 1991; Sniderman, Brody, & Tetlock, 1991).”
BackgroundBallot Titles and Voter Decision Making on Ballot Questions
Hastings, J., & Cann, D. M. (2014) · State and Local Government Review · doi:10.1177/0160323x14535410 · Cited by 11
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“Lupia analyzed an exit poll of California voters in 1988 [69], and found that citizens consulted the preferences and opinions of friends and coworkers to understand political events, rather than collecting and analyzing lengthy reports on their own.”
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“To be sure, some experiential work investigates how mass opinion is formed and altered by the competing political messages sent by the president and Congress (Chong and Druckman 2010; Howell and Kriner 2013; Lupia 1994).”
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“For direct democracy, Lupia (1994) is the first to offer empirical support showing that voters can use information shortcuts to approximate a fully informed vote on ballot measures.”
BackgroundResultInfluentialGubernatorial Endorsements and Ballot Measure Approval
Burnett, C. M., & Parry, J. A. (2014) · State Politics & Policy Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1532440014529290 · Cited by 11
Goodin, R. E. (2003) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/0199256179.003.0008 · Cited by 11
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Dasgupta, S., & Williams, K. C. (2002) · Journal of Theoretical Politics · doi:10.1177/095162902774006813 · Cited by 11
Correct Voting and Post-Election Regret
Blais, A., & Kilibarda, A. (2016) · PS Political Science & Politics · doi:10.1017/s1049096516001372 · Cited by 11
“Citizens can also cast reasonable votes by taking into account the positions of groups whose views or interests they share or oppose (Lupia 1994 ).”
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The politics of requesting: Strategic behavior and public utility regulation
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Can Inaccurate Beliefs About Incumbents be Changed? And Can Reframing Change Votes?Preprint
Rogers, T., & Nickerson, D. W. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2271654 · Cited by 11
“Because He Is Gay”: How Race, Gender, and Sexuality Shape Perceptions of Judicial Fairness
Bracic, A., Israel‐Trummel, M., Johnson, T., & Tipler, K. (2023) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/723996 · Cited by 12
Political elite cues and attitude formation in post-conflict contexts
Garbiras-Díaz, N., García-Sánchez, M., & Matanock, A. M. (2023) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/00223433231168189 · Cited by 12
“Citizens are likely to use cognitive shortcuts when they are distracted, when they must put cognitive effort elsewhere, and when the decisions are complex (Lupia, 1994).”
Çakar, T. E., & Filiz, G. (2023) · Frontiers in Human Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnhum.2023.1293173 · Cited by 13
“Political decision-making is often guided by the application of heuristics or cognitive shortcuts, as postulated by established scholarship (Popkin, 1991; Sniderman et al., 1993; Lupia, 1994).”
MethodA Fair Process Matters: The Relationship between Public Participation and Constitutional Legitimacy
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“…participation, despite research that has suggested that individuals can make reasonably accurate assessments of their interests in referenda (Lupia 1994), Jeffrey Lenowitz (2021) has argued that the inability of voters to fully understand the constitution undercuts any claim that they have…”
How Do People Perceive Immigrants? Relating Perceptions to Numbers
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Citizens, Interest Groups, and Local Ballot Initiatives
Adams, B. E. (2012) · Politics & Policy · doi:10.1111/j.1747-1346.2011.00336.x · Cited by 10
O’Mahen, P. N. (2015) · European Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s175577391500003x · Cited by 10
Philpot, T. S. (2017) · Cited by 10
Conspiracy Theories in U.S. History
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Determinants of the opinion gap between the elites and the public in the United States*
Park, H. M., & Hawley, G. (2019) · The Social Science Journal · doi:10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.008 · Cited by 10
“More recent research indicates that, in spite of low levels of knowledge, voters are nonetheless able to use heuristics to compensate (Canes-Wrone, Brady, & Cogan, 2004; Lupia, 1994; Popkin, 1991).”
BackgroundRhee, I. (2019) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1065912919888017 · Cited by 10
“Although one may not require encyclopedic knowledge (Lupia 1994; Popkin 1991), this can still be a very complicated process, as reliance on heuristics can also produce significant mistakes (Healy and Malhotra 2013).”
BackgroundVoters Use Campaign Finance Transparency and Compliance Information
Wood, A. K. (2022) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-022-09776-4 · Cited by 10
“For example, Lupia (1994) shows voters use campaign finance information as a heuristic.”
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BackgroundDow, J. K. (2011) · Journal of Elections Public Opinion and Parties · doi:10.1080/17457289.2011.592191 · Cited by 10
“Further, votes determined by retrospective, heuristic, and gut reasoning may indeed approximate their more informed cousins (Fiorina, 1981; McKelvey & Ordeshook, 1986; Sniderman et al., 1991; Page & Shapiro, 1992; Lupia, 1994a; Popkin, 1994; Wittman, 1995; for a review, see Lupia & McCubbins, 1998).”
BackgroundVoting for direct democratic participation: evidence from an initiative election
Arnold, F., Freier, R., Pallauf, M., & Stadelmann, D. (2016) · International Tax and Public Finance · doi:10.1007/s10797-016-9398-z · Cited by 10
“As in any political process, particular groups may try to influence referendum decisions through campaigning (Lupia 1994).”
BackgroundSocial Influences on Online Political Information Search and Evaluation
Pierce, D. R., Redlawsk, D. P., & Cohen, W. W. (2016) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-016-9374-4 · Cited by 12
Arnold, G., Farrer, B. D., & Holahan, R. (2017) · Review of Policy Research · doi:10.1111/ropr.12276 · Cited by 10
Lewandowsky, S. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0010 · Cited by 12
Stutzer, A., Baltensperger, M., & Meier, A. N. (2019) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2019.05.008 · Cited by 10
“Individual voters learn to inform themselves about politics and they build up political human capital.6 Thereby voters do not have to become political “encylopedias” (Lupia, 1994) but can rely on their experiences and information shortcuts (see Cramer and Toff 2017 for a review of the arguments).”
Ideological Orientations, LGBT Contact, and Formation of LGBT Policy Position*
Huett, B., Tumlison, C., & Song, G. (2018) · Social Science Quarterly · doi:10.1111/ssqu.12579 · Cited by 10
Sleepy Joe? Recalling and Considering Donald Trump’s Strategic Use of Nicknames
Johnson, T. (2021) · Journal of Political Marketing · doi:10.1080/15377857.2021.1939572 · Cited by 10
“Scholars have illustrated how individuals look for heuristics, or shortcuts, to simplify complex decisions in the political sphere (Lupia 1994; Lupia and McCubbins 1998; Popkin 1991).”
BackgroundAnti-Americanism and the Rise of World Opinion: Consequences for the US National Interest
Datta, M. N. (2014) · Cited by 10
Neddenriep, G., & Nownes, A. J. (2012) · Party Politics · doi:10.1177/1354068811436067 · Cited by 10
“…and Kolodny, 2009; Asher et al., 2001; Clark and Masters, 2001; Delaney et al., 1990; Hojnacki and Baum, 1992; Juravich and Shergold, 1988; Lupia, 1994; McDermott, 2006; Rapoport et al., 1991) and theoretical studies (Brady and Sniderman, 1985; Sniderman et al., 1991; Wlezien and Miller,…”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialWhy do Publics Support Minority Governments? Three Tests
Dufresne, Y., & Nevitte, N. H. (2012) · Parliamentary Affairs · doi:10.1093/pa/gss092 · Cited by 10
The Role of Political Sophistication in the Decision-Making Processes of Voters
Lawrence, C. N. (2003) · Cited by 10
Metadata
- Authors
- Lupia, A.
- Affiliations
- University of California San Diego (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lupia, Arthur
- ORCID
- Lupia, Arthur
- Venue
- American Political Science Review
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 1994-03
- Volume
- 88
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 63-76
- ISSN
- 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5943
- OpenAlex
- W2012728340
- Cited by
- 1,850
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 53 · 2025: 63 · 2024: 49 · 2023: 79 · 2022: 99 · 2021: 82 · 2020: 119 · 2019: 67 · 2018: 118 · 2017: 65 · 2016: 73 · 2015: 72 · 2014: 60 · 2013: 81 · 2012: 69
- FWCI
- 57.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Media Influence and Politics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Game Theory and Voting Systems
- Keywords
- voter information, encyclopedic knowledge, voting behavior, ballot initiatives, insurance reform, California elections
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