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Cited by 48Diabetes Treatment and ManagementChronic Disease Management StrategiesDiabetes Management and Research

Predicting 5- and 10-year mortality risk in older adults with diabetes

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Griffith, Kevin N., Prentice, Julia C., Mohr, David C., Conlin, Paul R.·2020·Diabetes Care
DOI 10.2337/dc19-1870PMC PMC7372062
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Abstract

Objective Several diabetes clinical practice guidelines suggest that treatment goals may be modified in older adults on the basis of comorbidities, complications, and life expectancy. The long-term benefits of treatment intensification may not outweigh short-term risks for patients with limited life expectancy. Because of the uncertainty of determining life expectancy for individual patients, we sought to develop and validate prognostic indices for mortality in older adults with diabetes. Research design and methods We used a prevalence sample of veterans with diabetes who were aged ≥65 years on 1 January 2006 ( N = 275,190). Administrative data were queried for potential predictors that included patient demographics, comorbidities, procedure codes, laboratory values and anthropomorphic measurements, medication history, and previous health service utilization. Logistic least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regressions were used to identify variables independently associated with mortality. The resulting odds ratios were then weighted to create prognostic indices of mortality over 5 and 10 years. Results Thirty-seven predictors of mortality were identified: 4 demographic variables, prescriptions for insulin or sulfonylureas or blood pressure medications, 6 biomarkers, previous outpatient and inpatient utilization, and 22 comorbidities/procedures. The prognostic indices showed good discrimination, with C-statistics of 0.74 and 0.76 for 5- and 10-year mortality, respec…

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Crossref · 10.2337/dc19-1870

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  • Multiple prognostic tools for life expectancy for older adults are available.

    “Multiple prognostic tools for life expectancy for older adults are available (60,61).”

    From 13. Older Adults: Standards of Care in Diabetes—2026 (2026) · cites this paper as [61]

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Authors
Griffith, K. N., Prentice, J. C., Mohr, D. C., & Conlin, P. R.
Affiliations
  • Boston University (US)
  • Harvard University (US)
Corresponding author
Griffith, Kevin N.
ORCID
Venue
Diabetes Care
Publisher
American Diabetes Association
Published
2020-06-19
Volume
43
Issue
8
Pages
1724-1731
ISSN
  • 0149-5992 (ISSN-L)
  • 1935-5548
DOI
10.2337/dc19-1870
PMC
PMC7372062
OpenAlex
W3035880398
Cited by
48
References
10
Citations by year
2026: 5 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 1
FWCI
5.66
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
www.diabetesjournals.org/content/license (vor, 31 d)
Locations
  • Diabetes Care (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
Health Services Research and Development (IIR 15-116)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Treatment and Management
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Chronic Disease Management Strategies
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
Keywords
diabetes mellitus, older adults, mortality prediction, prognostic score, life expectancy, treatment intensification, comorbidities, insulin, sulfonylureas, blood pressure medication, biomarkers, health care utilization, individualized treatment goals
MeSH terms
Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Antihypertensive Agents, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Humans, Hypertension, Insulin, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Prognosis, Sulfonylurea Compounds, Time Factors, United States, Veterans, Comorbidity, Risk Assessment, Diabetes Complications

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