Excess deaths during influenza and coronavirus disease and infection-fatality rate for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the netherlands
Open accessAbstract
Since the 2009 influenza pandemic, the Netherlands has used a weekly death monitoring system to estimate deaths in excess of expectations. We present estimates of excess deaths during the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic and 10 previous influenza epidemics. Excess deaths per influenza epidemic averaged 4,000. The estimated 9,554 excess deaths (41% in excess) during the COVID-19 epidemic weeks 12-19 of 2020 appeared comparable to the 9,373 excess deaths (18%) during the severe influenza epidemic of 2017-18. However, these deaths occurred in a shorter time, had a higher peak, and were mitigated by nonpharmaceutical control measures. Excess deaths were 1.8-fold higher than reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths (5,449). Based on excess deaths and preliminary results from seroepidemiologic studies, we estimated the infection-fatality rate to be 1%. Monitoring of excess deaths is crucial for timely estimates of disease burden for influenza and COVID-19. Our data complement laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 death reports and enable comparisons between epidemics.
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A study of all-cause excess mortality in the Netherlands reports a substantially higher IFR (1%).
“A study of all-cause excess mortality in the Netherlands reports a substantially higher IFR (1%) (Asten et al., 2021); however, all-cause mortality is not specific to COVID-19 (our estimate based on all-cause mortality is higher at 0.86% (0.72 – 0.99)).”
From Direct and indirect mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, March 1, 2020 to January 1, 2022 (2023) · cites this paper as Asten et al., 2021
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- Authors
- van Asten, L., Harmsen, C. N., Stoeldraijer, L., Klinkenberg, D., Teirlinck, A. C., de Lange, M. M. A., Meijer, A., van de Kassteele, J., van Gageldonk-Lafeber, A. B., van den Hof, S., & van der Hoek, W.
- Affiliations
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (NL)
- Venue
- Emerging infectious diseases
- Published
- 2021-02
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 411-420
- ISSN
- 1080-6040 (ISSN-L)
- 1080-6059
- PMC
- PMC7853586
- OpenAlex
- W3118478780
- Cited by
- 20
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 6
- FWCI
- 1.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Emerging infectious diseases (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Rivm Repository (Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion)
- Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion)
- Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Keywords
- excess mortality, COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, influenza epidemic, infection fatality rate, non-pharmaceutical interventions, disease burden estimation, 2017-2018 influenza season, 2009 H1N1 pandemic, seroepidemiology, Netherlands
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Humans, Influenza, Human, Mortality, Netherlands, Orthomyxoviridae, Seasons, Epidemics
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