Urban heat vulnerability: A dynamic assessment using multi-source data in coastal metropolis of Southeast China
Open accessAbstract
Extreme heat caused by global climate change has become a serious threat to the sustainable development of urban areas. Scientific assessment of the impacts of extreme heat on urban areas and in-depth knowledge of the cross-scale mechanisms of heat vulnerability forming in urban systems are expected to support policymakers and stakeholders in developing effective policies to mitigate the economic, social, and health risks. Based on the perspective of the human-environment system, this study constructed a conceptual framework and index system of “exposure-susceptibility-adaptive capacity” for urban heat vulnerability (UHV) and proposed its assessment methods. Taking Xiamen City, a coastal metropolis, as an example, spatial analysis and Geodetector were used to explore the spatial and temporal changes, spatial characteristics, and patterns of UHV under multiple external disturbances from natural to anthropological factors, and to reveal the main factors influencing UHV forming and spatial differentiation. Results showed that the exposure, susceptibility, adaptive capacity, and UHV in Xiamen City had a spatial structure of “coastal-offshore-inland”. On the hot day, both the exposure and UHV showed a temporal pattern of “rising and then falling, peaking at 14:00” and a spatial pattern of “monsoonal-like” movement between coast and inland. Coastal zoning with favorable socioeconomic conditions had less magnitude of changes in UHV, where the stability of the urban system was more likely to be maintained. During the hot months, the high UHV areas were mainly distributed in the inland, while coastal areas showed low UHV levels. Further, coastal UHV was mainly dominated by “heat exposure”, offshore by “comprehensive factors”, and inland in the northern mountainous areas by “lack of adaptive capacity”. Multi-scale urban adaptive capacity was confirmed to alter spatial distribution of exposure and reshape the spatial pattern of UHV. This study promotes the application of multi-scale vulnerability framework to disaster impact assessment, enriches the scientific knowledge of the urban system vulnerability, and provides scientific references for local targeted cooling policy development and extreme heat resilience building programs.
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In climate- and urban heat-risk assessment, the most critical areas are those in which a strong thermal hazard co-occurs with high exposure and increased vulnerability.
“This follows the general idea of climate- and urban heat-risk assessment, where the most critical areas are those in which a strong thermal hazard co-occurs with high exposure and increased vulnerability [32, 33].”
From GPU-Accelerated Deep Learning for Heatwave Prediction and Urban Heat Risk Assessment (2026) · cites this paper as [33]
Normalizing predicted fields to a common interval such as [0,1] is a standard step when combining heterogeneous indicators with different units and scales.
“For integration with the remaining components of the framework, the predicted field can be normalized to a common interval such as [0 , 1], which is a standard step when combining heterogeneous indicators with different units and scales [32, 33].”
From GPU-Accelerated Deep Learning for Heatwave Prediction and Urban Heat Risk Assessment (2026) · cites this paper as [33]
The simplified multiplicative risk formulation is sufficient to show how next-day thermal forecasting can be extended towards interpretable urban heat risk assessment products.
“Although this formulation is simplified, it is sufficient to show how next-day thermal forecasting can be extended towards interpretable urban heat risk assessment products [30, 33].”
From GPU-Accelerated Deep Learning for Heatwave Prediction and Urban Heat Risk Assessment (2026) · cites this paper as [33]
In urban heat research, vulnerability is commonly associated with environmental, demographic, social, and urban-form characteristics that increase sensitivity or reduce coping capacity under hot conditions.
“In urban heat research, vulnerability is commonly associated with environmental, demographic, social, and urban-form characteristics that increase sensitivity or reduce coping capacity under hot conditions [33-35].”
From GPU-Accelerated Deep Learning for Heatwave Prediction and Urban Heat Risk Assessment (2026) · cites this paper as [33]
Multiplicative and similar composite formulations based on normalized indicators are often used in heat-vulnerability and heat-risk studies because they emphasize the joint effects of multiple factors, rather than relying solely on temperature.
“Multiplicative and similar composite formulations based on normalized indicators are often used in heatvulnerability and heat-risk studies because they emphasize the joint effects of multiple factors, rather than relying solely on temperature [32, 33].”
From GPU-Accelerated Deep Learning for Heatwave Prediction and Urban Heat Risk Assessment (2026) · cites this paper as [33]
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GPU-Accelerated Deep Learning for Heatwave Prediction and Urban Heat Risk Assessment
Alihodžić, A. (2026) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.16435
- Authors
- Wu, C., Shui, W., Huang, Z., Wang, C., Wu, Y., Wu, Y., Xue, C., Huang, Y., Zhang, Y., & Zheng, D.
- Affiliations
- Fudan University (CN)
- Fuzhou University (CN)
- China Meteorological Administration (CN)
- McGill University (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Shui, Wei
- Venue
- Frontiers in Public Health
- Publisher
- Frontiers Media SA
- Published
- 2022-10-20
- Volume
- 10
- Pages
- 989963-989963
- ISSN
- 2296-2565 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC9632749
- OpenAlex
- W4306941897
- Cited by
- 37
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 4
- FWCI
- 1.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Frontiers in Public Health (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFC0502905)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- urban heat vulnerability, extreme heat, Xiamen, spatiotemporal variation, heat exposure, heat resilience, socioeconomic factors
- MeSH terms
- China, Cities, Hot Temperature, Humans, Climate Change
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