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An Inter-Comparison of the Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Beach) and the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) to Explain Canadian Tourism Arrivals to the Caribbean

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Rutty, Michelle, Scott, Daniel, Matthews, Lindsay, Burrowes, Ravidya, Trotman, Adrian, Mahon, Roché, Charles, Amanda·2020·Atmosphere

DOI 10.3390/atmos11040412

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Abstract

Through an empirical investigation of the historical relationship between the destination climate and tourist arrivals in the Caribbean, this study presents the first revealed preference evaluation of a climate index informed by tourists’ stated climatic preferences for coastal-beach tourism (i.e., a sun-sand-surf or 3S travel market). The goal of this multi-organization collaboration was to examine the potential application of a newly designed climate index—the Holiday Climate Index (HCI):Beach—for three Caribbean destinations (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Lucia). This paper provides an overview of the evolution of climate indices, including the development of the (HCI):Beach. To test the validity of climate indices for a beach travel market, daily climate ratings based on outputs from the Tourism Climate Index and the HCI were correlated with monthly arrivals data from Canada (a key source market) at an island destination scale. The results underscore the strength of the new index, with each destination scoring consistently higher using the HCI:Beach, including a stronger relationship (R2) between index scores and tourist arrivals. These findings demonstrate the value of combining stated and revealed preference methodologies to predict tourism demand and highlight opportunities for future research.

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Authors: Rutty, M., Scott, D., Matthews, L., Burrowes, R., Trotman, A., Mahon, R., & Charles, A.
Affiliations: University of Waterloo (CA)
ESSA Technologies, Vancouver, BC V6H 3H4, Canada
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (BB)
Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), Bridgetown BB 22026, Barbados
Corresponding author: Rutty, Michelle
Scott, Daniel
ORCID: Rutty, Michelle
Scott, Daniel
Matthews, Lindsay
Trotman, Adrian
Mahon, Roché
Venue: Atmosphere
Publisher: MDPI AG
Published: 2020-04-20
Volume: 11
Issue: 4
Pages: 412
ISSN: 2073-4433 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.3390/atmos11040412
OpenAlex: W3017360646
Cited by: 132
References: 51
Citations by year: 2026: 16 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 11
FWCI: 22.07
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
dx.doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Atmosphere (publishedVersion, cc-by)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders: European Commission
Mitacs
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Topics: Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management › Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic and Environmental Valuation
Social Sciences › Demography › Migration, Aging, and Tourism Studies
Keywords: tourism climate index, climate indices, beach tourism, coastal tourism, tourist arrivals, Canadian tourists, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Lucia, revealed preference, stated preference, climate preferences, tourism demand prediction

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An Inter-Comparison of the Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Beach) and the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) to Explain Canadian Tourism Arrivals to the Caribbean

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