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An Inter-Comparison of the Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Beach) and the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) to Explain Canadian Tourism Arrivals to the Caribbean
Open accessAbstract
Through an empirical investigation of the historical relationship between the destination climate and tourist arrivals in the Caribbean, this study presents the first revealed preference evaluation of a climate index informed by tourists’ stated climatic preferences for coastal-beach tourism (i.e., a sun-sand-surf or 3S travel market). The goal of this multi-organization collaboration was to examine the potential application of a newly designed climate index—the Holiday Climate Index (HCI):Beach—for three Caribbean destinations (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Lucia). This paper provides an overview of the evolution of climate indices, including the development of the (HCI):Beach. To test the validity of climate indices for a beach travel market, daily climate ratings based on outputs from the Tourism Climate Index and the HCI were correlated with monthly arrivals data from Canada (a key source market) at an island destination scale. The results underscore the strength of the new index, with each destination scoring consistently higher using the HCI:Beach, including a stronger relationship (R2) between index scores and tourist arrivals. These findings demonstrate the value of combining stated and revealed preference methodologies to predict tourism demand and highlight opportunities for future research.
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“Like the broader tourism climatology literature (e.g. Rutty et al. 2020), thermal stress studies have primary focused on acceptable conditions for tourism, not conditions that could pose imminent health and safety risks from heat exposure.”
From Forecasting thermal stress for sports tourists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup (2024) · cites this paper as Rutty et al. 2020
In the citing paper
“Unlike other variably weighted tourism index equations (e.g., Holiday Climate Index-Beach and -Urban, Rutty et al. 2020), WBGT assesses weather risks, not weather favourability.”
From Forecasting thermal stress for sports tourists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup (2024) · cites this paper as Rutty et al. 2020
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Metadata
- Authors
- Rutty, M., Scott, D., Matthews, L., Burrowes, R., Trotman, A., Mahon, R., & Charles, A.
- Affiliations
- University of Waterloo (CA)
- ESSA Technologies, Vancouver, BC V6H 3H4, Canada
- Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (BB)
- Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), Bridgetown BB 22026, Barbados
- Corresponding author
- Rutty, Michelle
- Scott, Daniel
- Venue
- Atmosphere
- Publisher
- MDPI AG
- Published
- 2020-04-20
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 412
- ISSN
- 2073-4433 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3017360646
- Cited by
- 132
- References
- 51
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 11
- FWCI
- 22.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- dx.doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Atmosphere (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Mitacs
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management › Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic and Environmental Valuation
- Social Sciences › Demography › Migration, Aging, and Tourism Studies
- Keywords
- tourism climate index, climate indices, beach tourism, coastal tourism, tourist arrivals, Canadian tourists, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Lucia, revealed preference, stated preference, climate preferences, tourism demand prediction
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