Galaxy Merger Rates up to z ∼ 3 Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Model: A Major-merger Classifier Using IllustrisTNG Simulation Data
Open accessAbstract
Merging is potentially the dominant process in galaxy formation, yet there is still debate about its history over cosmic time. To address this, we classify major mergers and measure galaxy merger rates up to z ∼ 3 in all five CANDELS fields (UDS, EGS, GOODS-S, GOODS-N, COSMOS) using deep learning convolutional neural networks trained with simulated galaxies from the IllustrisTNG cosmological simulation. The deep learning architecture used is objectively selected by a Bayesian optimization process over the range of possible hyperparameters. We show that our model can achieve 90% accuracy when classifying mergers from the simulation and has the additional feature of separating mergers before the infall of stellar masses from post-mergers. We compare our machine-learning classifications on CANDELS galaxies and compare with visual merger classifications from Kartaltepe et al., and show that they are broadly consistent. We finish by demonstrating that our model is capable of measuring galaxy merger rates, , that are consistent with results found for CANDELS galaxies using close pairs statistics, with . This is the first general agreement between major mergers measured using pairs and structure at z < 3.
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Ferreira et al. (2020) showed that the CNNs can distinguish mergers from non-mergers based on multi-wavelength imaging with an accuracy of ~90%.
“They showed that the CNNs can distinguish mergers from non-mergers based on multi-wavelength imaging with an accuracy of ∼ 90%.”
From The Dawes Review 10: The impact of deep learning for the analysis of galaxy surveys (2023) · cites this paper as Ferreira et al. (2020)
When applied to data from the CANDELS survey, Ferreira et al. (2020) results reconcile measurements of the merger rate performed with pair counts and photometry.
“When applied to data from the CANDELS survey, their results reconcile measurements of the merger rate performed with pair counts and photometry (see Figure 27).”
From The Dawes Review 10: The impact of deep learning for the analysis of galaxy surveys (2023) · cites this paper as Ferreira et al. (2020)
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“Ferreira et al. (2020) followed up on this idea and used deep learning for the first time to compute the merger rate up to z ∼ 3.”
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Shibuya, T., Miura, N., IWADATE, K., Fujimoto, S., Harikane, Y., Toba, Y., Umayahara, T., & Ito, Y. (2021) · Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan · doi:10.1093/pasj/psab111 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Roberts, H., Darling, J., & Baker, A. J. (2021) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/abe944 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
The observability of galaxy merger signatures in nearby gas-rich spirals
McElroy, R., Bottrell, C., Hani, M. H., Moreno, J., Croom, S. M., Hayward, C. C., Twum, A., Feldmann, R., Hopkins, P. F., Hernquist, L., et al. (2022) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stac1715 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Galaxy merger challenge: A comparison study between machine learning-based detection methods
Margalef-Bentabol, B., Wang, L., Marca, A. L., Blanco-Prieto, C., Chudy, D., Sánchez, H. D., Goulding, A. D., Guzmán-Ortega, A., Martin, G., Pearson, W., et al. (2024) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202348239 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Self-citationMarca, A. L., Margalef-Bentabol, B., Wang, L., Gao, F., Goulding, A. D., Martin, G., Rodríguez-Gómez, V., Trager, S. C., Yang, G., Davé, R., et al. (2024) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202348188 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Ferreira, L., Conselice, C. J., Kuchner, U., & Tohill, C.-B. (2022) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ac66ea · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationDo galaxy mergers prefer under-dense environments?
Sureshkumar, U., Durkalec, A., Pollo, A., Pearson, W., Farrow, D. J., Narayanan, A., Loveday, J., Taylor, E. N., & Suelves, L. E. (2024) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202347705 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Wilkinson, S., Ellison, S. L., Bottrell, C., Bickley, R. W., Byrne-Mamahit, S., Ferreira, L., & Patton, D. R. (2024) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stae287 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Self-citationDeep learning for nano-photonic materials – The solution to everything!?
Wiecha, P. R. (2023) · Current Opinion in Solid State and Materials Science · doi:10.1016/j.cossms.2023.101129 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
GA-NIFS: witnessing the complex assembly of a star-forming system at z = 5.7
Jones, G. C., Bunker, A. J., Telikova, K., Arribas, S., Carniani, S., Charlot, S., D’Eugenio, F., Maiolino, R., Perna, M., Pino, B. R. D., et al. (2025) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/staf899 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Angeloudi, E., Falcón‐Barroso, J., Sarmiento, R., Pillepich, A., Walo-Martín, D., & Eisert, L. (2023) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stad1669 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
De-noising of galaxy optical spectra with autoencoders
Scourfield, M., Saintonge, A., de Mijolla, D., & Viti, S. (2023) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stad2709 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Cheng, T.-Y., Sánchez, H. D., Vega-Ferrero, J., Conselice, C. J., Siudek, M., Aragón‐Salamanca, A., Bernardi, M., Cooke, R., Ferreira, L., Krywult, J., et al. (2022) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stac3228 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationA Comparison of Star-forming Clumps and Tidal Tails in Local Mergers and High-redshift Galaxies
Elmegreen, D. M., Elmegreen, B. G., Whitmore, B. C., Chandar, R., Calzetti, D., Lee, J. C., White, R. L., Cook, D., Ubeda, L., Mok, A., et al. (2021) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/abd541 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Uncovering tidal treasures: automated classification of faint tidal features in DECaLS data
Gordon, A. J., Ferguson, A. M. N., & Mann, R. G. (2024) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stae2169 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Mock galaxy surveys for HST and JWST from the IllustrisTNG simulations
Snyder, G. F., Peña, T., Yung, L. Y. A., Rose, C., Kartaltepe, J. S., & Ferguson, H. C. (2022) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stac3397 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Yoon, Y., Kim, J.-W., & Ko, J. (2023) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/acfed5 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Evaluation metrics for galaxy image generators
Hackstein, S., Kinakh, V., Bailer, C., & Melchior, M. (2023) · Astronomy and Computing · doi:10.1016/j.ascom.2022.100685 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Teimoorinia, H., Shishehchi, S., Tazwar, A., Lin, P., Archinuk, F., Gwyn, S., & Kavelaars, J. J. (2021) · The Astronomical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-3881/abea7e · Cited by 9 · see citing works
SDSS-IV MaNGA: Unveiling Galaxy Interaction by Merger Stages with Machine Learning
Chang, Y.-Y., Lin, L., Pan, H.-A., Lin, C.-A., Hsieh, B.-C., Bottrell, C., & Wang, P. W. (2022) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ac8c27 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Merger identification through photometric bands, colours, and their errors
Suelves, L. E., Pearson, W., & Pollo, A. (2022) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202244509 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
The effect of image quality on galaxy merger identification with deep learning
Bickley, R. W., Wilkinson, S., Ferreira, L., Ellison, S. L., Bottrell, C., & Jyoti, D. (2024) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stae2246 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationInferring redshift and galaxy properties via a multi-task neural net with probabilistic outputs
Ginolfi, M., Mannucci, F., Belfiore, F., MARCONI, A., Boardman, N., Pozzetti, L., Bolzonella, M., Teodoro, E. M. D., Cresci, G., Wild, V., et al. (2024) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202452799 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Determining the time before or after a galaxy merger event
Pearson, W., Rodríguez-Gómez, V., Kruk, S., & Margalef-Bentabol, B. (2024) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202449532 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Galaxy Zoo JWST: up to 75 per cent of discs are featureless at 3 < z < 7
Smethurst, R. J., Simmons, B. D., Géron, T., Dickinson, H. J., Fortson, L., Garland, I. L., Kruk, S., Jewell, S. M., Lintott, C. J., Makechemu, J. S., et al. (2025) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/staf506 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Critical Stellar Central Densities Drive Galaxy Quenching in the Nearby Universe
Xu, B., & Peng, Y. (2021) · The Astrophysical Journal Letters · doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ac3a01 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Astraeus VII: the environmental-dependent assembly of galaxies in the Epoch of Reionization
Legrand, L., Dayal, P., Hutter, A., Gottlöber, S., Yepes, G., & Trebitsch, M. (2022) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stac3760 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
DeepGalaxy: Deducing the Properties of Galaxy Mergers from Images Using Deep Neural Networks
Cai, M. X., Bédorf, J., Saletore, V. A., Codreanu, V., Podareanu, D., Chaibi, A., & Qian, P. X. (2020) · IEEE/ACM Workshop on Deep Learning on Supercomputers (DLS) · doi:10.1109/dls51937.2020.00012 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Galaxy Morphological Classification with Zernike Moments and Machine Learning Approaches
Ghaderi, H., Alipour, N., & Safari, H. (2025) · The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series · doi:10.3847/1538-4365/ada8ab · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Reste, A. L., Jaskot, A. E., Brazie, J., Scarlata, C. M., Flury, S. R., Mantha, K. B., Henry, A., Hayes, M., Östlin, G., Saldana-Lopez, A., et al. (2026) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ae2ad8 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Rose, C., Kartaltepe, J. S., Snyder, G. F., Yung, L. Y. A., Haro, P. A., Bagley, M. B., Bisigello, L., Calabrò, A., Cleri, N. J., Dickinson, M., et al. (2024) · The Astrophysical Journal Letters · doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ad8dd4 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Enhanced active galactic nucleus activity in overdense galactic environments at 2 < z < 4
Shah, E. A., Lemaux, B. C., Forrest, B., Hathi, N. P., Shen, L., Cucciati, O., Hung, D., Giddings, F., Sikorski, D., Lubin, L. M., et al. (2025) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202452055 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
The spatially resolved effect of mergers on the stellar mass assembly of MaNGA galaxies
Angeloudi, E., Falcón‐Barroso, J., Perreault-Levasseur, L., Adam, A., & Boecker, A. (2025) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202556260 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
GalaxyGenius: Mock galaxy image generator for various telescopes from hydrodynamical simulations
Zhou, X., Yang, H., Li, N., Xiong, Q., Deng, F., Meng, X., Ye, R., Shen, S., Wei, P., Cui, Q., et al. (2025) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202554287 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
D’Onofrio, V. R., Spilker, J. S., Bezanson, R., Feldmann, R., Goulding, A. D., Greene, J. E., Kriek, M., Luo, Y., Narayanan, D., Setton, D. J., et al. (2025) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/adf5bd · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Margalef-Bentabol, B., Wang, L., Pandolfo, N., Marca, A. L., Rodríguez-Gómez, V., Fu, Y., & Chen, M. (2025) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202554157 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Classifying merger stages with adaptive deep learning and cosmological hydrodynamical simulations
de Graaff, R., Margalef-Bentabol, B., Wang, L., Marca, A. L., Pearson, W., Rodríguez-Gómez, V., & Walmsley, M. (2025) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202452659 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
The major merger–active galactic nucleus connection up to cosmic noon
Marca, A. L., Margalef-Bentabol, B., Wang, L., Trager, S. C., Rodríguez-Gómez, V., & Martin, G. (2026) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202555185 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Xu, K., & Jing, Y. (2025) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/add5f6 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Harvesting the Ly α forest with convolutional neural networks
Cheng, T.-Y., Cooke, R., & Rudie, G. C. (2022) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stac2631 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationMachine-learning enhanced photometric analysis of the extremely bright GRB 210822A
Angulo-Valdez, C., Becerra, R. L., Pereyra, M., Garcia-Cifuentes, K., Vargas, F., Watson, A. M., Colle, F. D., Fraija, N. I., Butler, N., Dainotti, M. G., et al. (2023) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stad3624 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Bayesian and convolutional networks for hierarchical morphological classification of galaxies
Serrano-Pérez, J., Hernández, R. D., & Sucar, L. E. (2024) · Experimental Astronomy · doi:10.1007/s10686-024-09950-y · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Retrieving Internal Kinematics of Galaxies with Deep Learning Using Single-band Optical Images
Hansen, S., Conselice, C. J., Fraser-McKelvie, A., & Ferreira, L. (2020) · Research Notes of the AAS · doi:10.3847/2515-5172/abc1db · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationParameter measurement based on photometric images
Cai, J., Li, N., Yang, H., Wang, L., Zheng, A.-Y., Hao, J., Zhao, X., & Xun, Y. (2025) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202452813 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Automatic purification of skylight spectrum based on an autoencoder
Ding, Z., Tu, L., Yang, H., Jiang, B., Li, X., Yang, Y., Zhang, H., & Li, J. (2024) · Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan · doi:10.1093/pasj/psae058 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Recent Research Progress on Galaxy Pairs and Mergers with JWST Observations
Yi-lu, T., & Yu, D. J. (2025) · Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1016/j.chinastron.2025.09.008 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Galaxy mergers in UNIONS – II. Predicting time-scales in the post-merger regime
Ferreira, L., Ellison, S. L., Patton, D. R., Byrne-Mamahit, S., Wilkinson, S., & Bickley, R. W. (2026) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stag178 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationInvertible Neural Networks in Astrophysics
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Zhu, S., Fang, G., Zhou, C.-C., Song, J., Lin, Z., Dai, Y., & Kong, X. (2025) · The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series · doi:10.3847/1538-4365/add0b8 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Omori, K. C. (2024) · Springer theses · doi:10.1007/978-981-97-8735-7_1
The Effect of Environment in Galaxy Merger Incidence
Omori, K. C. (2024) · Springer theses · doi:10.1007/978-981-97-8735-7_3
Lee, Y., Song, H., Shin, J., Hong, S., Lee, J., & Chun, K. (2026) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ae371a
Galaxy Mergers Classification Using CNNs Trained on Sérsic Models, Residuals, and Raw Images
Chudy, D. M., Pearson, W., Suelves, L. E., Margalef-Bentabol, B., Pollo, A., Wang, L., Rodríguez-Gómez, V., & Marca, A. L. (2026) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ae41b8
Molecular Gas Excitation in z ∼ 0.7 Gas-rich Poststarburst Galaxies from SQuIGG L → E
D’Onofrio, V. R., Spilker, J. S., Bezanson, R., Feldmann, R., Goulding, A. D., Greene, J. E., Kriek, M., Kumar, A., Luo, Y., Narayanan, D., et al. (2026) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ae64e7
Eisert, L., Bottrell, C., Pillepich, A., Nelson, D., Shimakawa, R., & Klessen, R. S. (2026) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stag1057
- Authors
- Ferreira, L., Conselice, C. J., Duncan, K., Cheng, T.-Y., Griffiths, A., & Whitney, A.
- Affiliations
- University of Nottingham (GB)
- Leiden University (NL)
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Publisher
- American Astronomical Society
- Published
- 2020-06-01
- Volume
- 895
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 115
- ISSN
- 0004-637X (ISSN-L)
- 1538-4357
- OpenAlex
- W3022194331
- Cited by
- 92
- References
- 45
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 17 · 2020: 3
- FWCI
- 5.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- The Astrophysical Journal (publishedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- Leiden Repository (Leiden University) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
- Science and Technology Facilities Council
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Galaxies: Formation, Evolution, Phenomena
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Astrophysics and Star Formation Studies
- Keywords
- galaxy mergers, merger rate, high-redshift galaxies, CANDELS fields, IllustrisTNG simulations, convolutional neural networks, Bayesian optimization, hyperparameter optimization, post-merger galaxies, galaxy pairs, galaxy formation
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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