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The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions
Abstract
This paper develops a tractable econometric model of optimal migration, focusing on expected income as the main economic influence on migration. The model improves on previous work in two respects: it covers optimal sequences of location decisions (rather than a single once-for-all choice) and it allows for many alternative location choices. The model is estimated using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth on white males with a high-school education. Our main conclusion is that interstate migration decisions are influenced to a substantial extent by income prospects. The results suggest that the link between income and migration decisions is driven both by geographic differences in mean wages and by a tendency to move in search of a better locational match when the income realization in the current location is unfavorable.
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Cited by
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Caliendo, L., Dvorkin, M., & Parro, F. (2019) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta13758 · Cited by 632
Adda, J., Dustmann, C., & Stevens, K. (2017) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/690952 · Cited by 467
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Monte, F., Redding, S. J., & Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2018) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20151507 · Cited by 435
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Baum-Snow, N., & Pavan, R. (2012) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdr022 · Cited by 355
Looking for Local Labor Market Effects of NAFTA
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The Economics of Internal Migration: Advances and Policy Questions
Jia, N., Molloy, R., Smith, C., & Wozniak, A. (2023) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.20211623 · Cited by 77
Antràs, P., Redding, S., & Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2020) · doi:10.3386/w27840 · Cited by 69
How Americans Respond to Idiosyncratic and Exogenous Changes in Household Wealth and Unearned Income
Golosov, M., Graber, M., Mogstad, M., & Novgorodsky, D. (2024) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjad053 · Cited by 69
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Martinez, S.-K., Meier, S., & Sprenger, C. (2023) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvac067 · Cited by 17
Metadata
- Venue
- Econometrica
- Publisher
- The Econometric Society
- Published
- 2011
- Volume
- 79
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 211-251
- ISSN
- 0012-9682 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1488676600
- Cited by
- 702
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 95.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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