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Cited by 69Global trade and economicsCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsCOVID-19 epidemiological studies

Globalization and Pandemics

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Antràs, Pol, Redding, Stephen, Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban·2020·National Bureau of Economic Research
DOI 10.3386/w27840
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Abstract

We propose a theory of the relationship between globalization and pandemics.We start by documenting the importance of international trade for the diffusion of infections in several pandemics throughout history and by showing that trade and travel are closely intertwined.Motivated by this evidence, we build a framework in which business travel facilitates trade according to a constant elasticity gravity equation mediated by mobility frictions.In turn, travel leads to human interactions that transmit disease, as in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model.We highlight three novel interactions between these two mechanisms.First, trademotivated travel generates an epidemiological externality across countries.Therefore, reductions in international frictions affect the evolution of the epidemic in each country, and the condition for a pandemic to occur.Second, if infections lead to deaths, or reduce individual labor supply, we establish a general equilibrium social distancing effect, whereby increases in relative prices in unhealthy countries reduce travel to those countries.Third, if agents internalize the threat of infection, we show that their behavioral responses lead to a reduction in travel that is larger for higher-trade-cost locations, and hence leads to an initial fall in the ratio of trade to GDP in the early stages of the epidemic, before a subsequent recovery.

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  • Globalisation and pandemics are closely intertwined.

    “As we have emphasized in Antràs, Redding and Rossi -Hansberg (2020), globalisation and pandemics are closely intertwined.”

    From De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age (2020) · cites this paper as Antràs, Redding and Rossi -Hansberg (2020)

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6 of the 82 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 11

  1. Anderson, James E. (1979), "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, 69(1), pp.106-116.
  2. Antràs, Pol, Teresa C. Fort and Felix Tintelnot (2017) "The Margins of Global Sourcing: Theory and Evidence from US Firms," American Economic Review, 107(9), 2514-64.
  3. Arkolakis, Costas (2010), "Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in Interna- tional Trade," Journal of Political Economy 118, no. 6, pp: 1151-1199.
  4. Chaney, Thomas (2008), "Distorted Gravity: the Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review 98, no. 4: 1707-21.
  5. Costinot, Arnaud, and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare (2015), "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantify- ing the Consequences of Globalization" in Handbook of International Economics, vol. 4: pp. 197-261.
  6. Head, Keith, and Philippe Mayer (2014), "Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cook- book," Ch. 3 in Handbook of International Economics, Gopinath, Gita, Elhanan Helpman and Kenneth Rogoff (Eds), Vol. 4.
  7. Helpman, Elhanan, Marc Melitz, and Yona Rubinstein (2008), "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," Quarterly Journal of Economics 123, no. 2: 441-487.
  8. Hovhannisyan, Nune and Wolfgang Keller (2015), "International Business Travel: An Engine of Innovation?, Journal of Economic Growth, 20:75-104.
  9. Kermack, William Ogilvy and A. G. McKendrick, (1927), "A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics, Part I," Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, 115 (772), pp. 700-721.
  10. Melitz, Marc J., and Stephen J Redding (2014), "Missing Gains from Trade?" American Economic Review 104 (5): pp. 317-21.
  11. Ossa, Ralph (2015), "Why Trade Matters After All," Journal of International Economics 97(2): pp. 266-277.

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Authors
Antràs, P., Redding, S., & Rossi-Hansberg, E.
Affiliations
University of Southern California (US)
ORCID
Redding, Stephen
Venue
National Bureau of Economic Research
Publisher
National Bureau of Economic Research
Published
2020-09
DOI
10.3386/w27840
OpenAlex
W3087281845
Cited by
69
References
82
Citations by year
2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 24 · 2020: 15
Type
report
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
  • London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
  • London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
Economic and Social Research Council
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
Keywords
globalization, pandemic, international trade, business travel, disease transmission, gravity model, SIR model, social distancing, trade costs, trade to GDP ratio

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