Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the 'Great Recession'

“This, in turn, stems from Becker‟s microeconomic model of fertility (Becker, 1960; Becker, 1991).”

“Strongly related to this is Giddens‟ sociological conception of „Risk‟ and Ulrich Beck‟s (1992) notion of the „Risk Society‟ – that „one of the major consequences of modernisation has been a tremendous intensification of real and perceived or socially mediated risk‟ (Hall 2002: 175).”

“2.1 Period fertility rates and the ‘Great Recession’ During the 1990s, pTFRs across much of Europe fell to very low levels (Kohler, Billari, and Ortega 2002).”

“A development of this would be the „demand‟ theory of fertility which posits that childbearing, as a process of consumption of psychological, financial, and time resources which could be spent by parents elsewhere, can be foregone or delayed in straightened economic times (Brewster and Rindfuss 2000).”

“5 As Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philipov (2010) observe, „the impact of uncertainty in the developed countries has been addressed in relatively few empirical studies‟ meaning that „the wealth of theoretical arguments has not yet been properly tested‟ (p.18).”

“The ongoing low fertility rates found in Southern Europe have been partly attributed to persistently high levels of unemployment and job instability (Adsera 2004; Adsera 2005a; Billari and Kohler 2004).”

“When asked to estimate their future complete family size, individuals tend to overestimate the number of children they will have in their whole reproductive career; nevertheless, their lifetime fertility intentions are a strong predictor of their actual fertility (Bongaarts 2001; Quesnel-Vallée and Morgan 2003; Schoen…”

“When asked to estimate their future complete family size, individuals tend to overestimate the number of children they will have in their whole reproductive career; nevertheless, their lifetime fertility intentions are a strong predictor of their actual fertility (Bongaarts 2001; Quesnel-Vallée and Morgan 2003; Schoen…”

“The parity specificity of fertility intentions has been largely emphasised in previous research (Ajzen and Klobas 2013).”

“Furthermore, in the context of a free international labour market within the European Union, international migration can be a further particular response to economic uncertainty which, in turn, can create an ever greater pool of „outsiders‟ in fragile employment (Emmenegger et al. 2012b).”

“As Figure 1 demonstrates, most countries generally saw an upturn in pTFR in the 2000s, largely as a result of the tempo effect of postponement of births to later ages (Sobotka 2004).”

“…complete family size, individuals tend to overestimate the number of children they will have in their whole reproductive career; nevertheless, their lifetime fertility intentions are a strong predictor of their actual fertility (Bongaarts 2001; Quesnel-Vallée and Morgan 2003; Schoen et al. 1999).”

“The ongoing low fertility rates found in Southern Europe have been partly attributed to persistently high levels of unemployment and job instability (Adsera 2004; Adsera 2005a; Billari and Kohler 2004).”

“8 Similarly, we could not find support for the fact that the effect of unemployment on fertility intentions is gendered (Rindfuss et al. 1988).”

“Empirically, this has been found to be the case in both long time series (Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philipov 2011; Rindfuss, Morgan, and Swicegood 1988) and individual country data (e.g., Adsera 2011; Kravdal 2002; Macunovich 1996).”

“A third distinction is made between childbearing intentions and the degree of certainty about those plans, which has been found to act as a strong predictor of future fertility behaviour (Schoen et al.1999; Westoff and Ryder 1977).”

“Increased levels of stress and anxiety (Dooley, Fielding, and Levi 1996; Fenwick and Tausig 1994) associated with anomie can result in depression and poor health (Schneiderman, Ironson, and Siegel 2005) while, again in the context of a „Risk Society‟, heightened levels of anomie may make people averse to additional ri…”

“The models were run separately for the childless sub-sample and individuals with one child, following the approach suggested by the rational choice theories (Yamaguchi and Ferguson 1995) and a conditional-sequential fertility decisionmaking (Namboodiri 1972).”

“The models were run separately for the childless sub-sample and individuals with one child, following the approach suggested by the rational choice theories (Yamaguchi and Ferguson 1995) and a conditional-sequential fertility decisionmaking (Namboodiri 1972).”

“In Finland, for example, the economic shock of the early 1990s was met with a continuing upward trend in births at parity two and above while first-order births were postponed (Vikat 2002; Vikat 2004) – a feature which suggests the possible role of strong welfare states in mitigating the impact of economic crisis upon…”

“Empirically, this has been found to be the case in both long time series (Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philipov 2011; Rindfuss, Morgan, and Swicegood 1988) and individual country data (e.g., Adsera 2011; Kravdal 2002; Macunovich 1996).”

“…that this is a restriction in the scope of the analysis, we are also reassured by the fact that young people, who are presumably at the beginning of their reproductive careers, are also the group most severely exposed to the negative consequences of the economic downturn (Kravdal 1999; Neels 2010).”

“Increased levels of stress and anxiety (Dooley, Fielding, and Levi 1996; Fenwick and Tausig 1994) associated with anomie can result in depression and poor health (Schneiderman, Ironson, and Siegel 2005) while, again in the context of a „Risk Society‟, heightened levels of anomie may make people averse to additional ri…”

“Other studies have identified the importance of unemployment in determining timing of fertility – especially the transition to first birth (Meron and Widmer 2002).”

“As Emmenegger et al. (2012a) and others have observed, the changing nature of the European labour market over the past five decades has led to increased fragmentation and „dualisation‟ between „insiders‟ who are characterised by protected „jobs for life‟ and „outsiders‟ whose employment is precarious and vulnerable.”

“org 697 showing the fertility responses to changes in consumer confidence (Fokkema et al. 2008).”

“A negative relationship between unemployment and fertility has been found in a wide array of studies across Europe, North America, and East Asia (see Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philipov 2011 for a complete review), with many of these studies disaggregating by gender effects (Örsal and Goldstein 2010) and by individual and…”

“org 691 fertility in this period did, in fact, remain largely pro-cyclical (Macunovich 1995).”

“We know that uncertainty/certainty in fertility intentions plays an important role in defining and shaping fertility outcomes (e.g., Bernardi, Cavalli, and Mynarska 2010; Morgan 1981), but again the relationship between economic shocks, unemployment and uncertainty in fertility intentions has been very little explored…”

“One of the most important values of reproductive intentions lies in the fact that they are informative about directional trends: actual and intended fertility show similar trends despite the fact that they are at different levels (Goldstein, Lutz, and Testa 2003; Hin et al. 2011).”

“Researchers agree that uncertainty adversely affects fertility, highlighting the negative correlation between unemployment and family formation and reproduction, as Testa and Basten (2014) recently confirmed in their examination of fertility intentions.”

“Our results are thus in line with Testa and Basten (2014) who also found little evidence of country-level effects on fertility intentions among childless persons.”

“…Quesnel-Vallée and Morgan 2004; Spéder and Kapitány 2015; Thomson 1997; Thomson and Hoem 1998; Vignoli et al. 2013) or across countries (e.g., Balbo and Mills 2011; Kapitány and Spéder 2013; Philipov et al. 2006; Puur et al. 2008; Régnier-Loilier et al. 2011; Testa 2007; Testa and Basten 2014).”

“Testa and Gietel-Basten (2014) found that while the Great Recession did not affect childless individuals’ ideal family size, it did influence the certainty of their fertility intentions.”

“…exist emphasising the role of individuallevel fertility preferences (Axinn, Clarkberg, & Thornton, 1994; Courgeau, 2002; Liefbroer, 2009; Testa & Basten, 2014), the culture around the family (Barban & Dalla-Zuanna, 2010; Dalla Zuanna, 2001; Lauster, 2010), and institutional…”

“Relatively little research, however, has been carried out on the ways in which economic recessions affect fertility intentions (Testa and Basten 2014), and even less attention has been paid to understanding the reasons behind intentions not to have a(nother) child.”

“Various studies have used perceptions of financial security as a measure of general economic uncertainty (Kreyenfeld, 2005, 2010, 2016; Testa & Basten, 2014).”

“This concurs with the broader literature on this relationship (see reviews in [62,63]).”

“, [18]), in fact, perceptions and expectations even more than the actual impact of the recession on individuals’ current occupational and financial conditions can shape fertility plans.”

“The dependent variable is women’s intention to have a second child within the following 3 years, a more accurate measure than long-term intentions (Schoen et al., 1999; Testa & Basten, 2014).”

“Thus, intentions have to be asked within a specific and sufficiently short time horizon (Philipov, 2009; Schoen et al., 1999; Testa & Basten, 2014).”

“Persistent economic uncertainty can depress fertility and fertility intentions (Testa and Gietel-Basten 2014; Comolli 2017; Gaddy: TFR declines ‒ no relationship between development and sub-replacement fertility rebounds 134 https://www.demographic-research.org Fahlén and Oláh 2018; Seltzer 2019).”

“As economic insecurity in course of the financial crisis could have triggered postponement (Sobotka, Skirbekk and Philipov 2011; Testa and Basten 2014), this difference might not be as pronounced as expected.”

“…with fertility decision making, with more precarious employment and earnings tied to lower fertility (Alderotti et al. 2021; Hofmann, Kreyenfeld, and Uhlendorff 2017; Kreyenfeld 2015; Mills and Blossfeld 2013; Raymo and Shibata 2017; Testa and Basten 2014; Vignoli, Mencarini, and Alderotti 2020b).”

“In common with other social and economic shocks in the recent past (Schneider, 2015; Sobotka et al., 2011; Testa & Basten, 2014), the disruption in both daily life and the economy brought by the pandemic may have negatively impacted fertility rates (Aassve et al., 2020).”

“Using cross-sectional data across European countries, Testa and Gietel-Basten (2014) show that the perceived economic downturn following the Great Recession was not associated with individuals’ fertility intentions but was associated with their certainty of meeting positive intentions.”

“Control variables To reduce the interference of confounding variables on model estimation, we include 6 control variables that have been identified in the literature as being related to fertility intention, including age, residence type, hukou type, education level, employment status, and monthly income level [9, 40].”

“…groups the effect of the pre-/post-2008 indicator indicates a sensitivity to external economic circumstances, and slowing of fertility rates compared with more advantaged groups, exacerbated by enhanced temporal uncertainty beyond the effect of control variables (Testa & Basten, 2014).”

“…or a threat of an income loss, holding an unstable job or losing it, are the main factors associated with reduced fertility intentions during recession periods (Fiori et al., 2018; Kreyenfeld et al., 2012; Mills & Blossfeld, 2013; Novelli et al., 2021; Testa & Basten, 2014; Vignoli et al., 2019).”

“Additionally, the empirical data cited in the literature on average number of children desired across affluent societies are somewhat dated (being based mainly on Eurobarometer 2011 and GGS 2011; e.g. Testa 2012; Sobotka and Beaujouan 2014; Testa and Basten 2014).”

“…Recession of 2008 in Europe is in line with such findings, with many studies reporting a strong correlation between, for instance, increasing unemployment rates and fertility decline (Sobotka et al., 2011; Goldstein et al., 2013; Testa and Basten, 2014; Bellido and Marcén, 2016; Comolli, 2017).”

“Testa and Basten (2014) showed that how people ’ s fi nancial circumstances a ff ect their lifetime fertility intentions depends on parity and that having a challenging fi nancial situation a ff ects people ’ s fertility intentions unless they are childless.”

“Testa and Basten (2014) demonstrate that the perceived worsening in a household‟s financial situation during the crisis increased fertility uncertainty for childless people and reduced the number of additionally intended children among those with one child.”

“At the micro-level, labor market uncertainty is significantly related to fertility intentions in Europe (Comolli, 2023; Fahlén & Oláh, 2018; Lappegård et al., 2022; Novelli et al., 2021; Testa & Basten, 2014) and in the US (Brauner-Otto & Geist, 2018).”

“…fertility intentions (Billari et al., 2009; Busetta et al., 2019; Dommermuth et al., 2011; Fiori et al., 2017; Iacovou & Tavares, 2011; Testa, 2014; Testa & Basten, 2014; Vignoli et al., 2020), no research has yet systemati - cally examined how these conditions affect the perceived relevance of…”

“For example, they’ve found that unstable employment conditions influence decisions about both initiating a family and expanding it with additional children (Fiori et al., 2013; Novelli et al., 2021; Testa & Basten, 2014).”

“The economic crisis of 2008 had a negative effect on total fertility rates (Sobotka et al., 2011; Testa & Basten, 2014) and the Brexit referendum was a major political event in the following decade with vast social and economic implications.”

“For example, the higher the social background of the parents, the more income there is, and the more children there are (Freedman & Coombs, 1966; Lan, 2021; Moberg, 1950; Testa & Basten, 2014).”

“This is particularly likely to be the case in countries that have been severely affected by economic crises, and thus have high unemployment rates (Goldstein et al. 2013), increasingly precarious employment arrangements, and financial challenges (Testa and Basten 2014).”

“…well‐being is often more strongly associated with fertility intentions than objective income since it captures how the financial capacity of individuals is related to their expectations of the costs of raising additional children (Philipov, 2009; Testa & Basten, 2014; Vignoli et al., 2020).”

“For example, being actively religious and living with a partner are associated with a higher desire for parenthood, whereas a negative financial situation has been related to greater fertility uncertainty (Craig et al. 2014; Dommermuth et al. 2011; Testa and Basten 2014).”

“Or economic downturn could influence women who already have children deciding not to have another, resulting in declines at higher parities (Testa & Basten, 2014).”

“Therefore, when unemployment increases uncertainty about the income leads to a negative shift in fertility rates and family formation [19].”

“…the research on fertility intentions is growing up (Ajzen and Klobas, 2013; Dibaba, 2008; Loilier and Vignoli, 2011), and lots of researches tried to link social or economic uncertainty and fertility intentions (Fahlén and Oláh, 2015; Kreyenfeld, 2005; Modena et al., 2012; Testa and Basten, 2014).”

“Pregnancy decision-making is likely to be affected by the macro-economic situation (Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philipov 2011; Testa and Basten 2014).”

“Various studies have use perceptions of financial security as a measure of general economic uncertainty (Kreyenfeld, 2005, 2016; Testa & Basten, 2014).”

“Migration must therefore be considered as a possible response to the economic recession, along with postponing partnership and/or births, or revising fertility intentions downwards (Testa and Gietel-Basten 2014).”

“We can predict that in today ’ s highly contraceptive society, improved fertility intentions will increase the number of children (Testa & Basten, 2014).”

“Testa [7] presents an interest examining how Europeans, who planned at that time to have a child in the next years, assessed the likelihood of implementing these plans, based on the pan-European research “Eurobarometer” (wave 2011, covering 27 European countries).”