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Cited by 1,451Family Dynamics and RelationshipsDemographic Trends and Gender PreferencesReproductive Health and Contraception

The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s

Kohler, Hans‐Peter, Billari, Francesco C., Ortega, José Antonio·2002·Population and Development Review
DOI 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2002.00641.x
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Abstract

Lowest‐low fertility, defined as a period total fertility rate at or below 1.3, has rapidly spread in Europe during the 1990s. This article traces the emergence of this new phenomenon to the interaction of five factors. First, tempo and compositional distortions reduce the total fertility rate below the associated level of cohort fertility. Second, socioeconomic changes—including increased returns to human capital and high economic uncertainty in early adulthood—have made late childbearing a rational response for individuals and couples. Third, social interaction effects reinforce this behavioral adjustment and contribute to large and persistent postponement in the mean age at birth. Fourth, institutional settings favor an overall low quantum of fertility. Fifth, postponement–quantum interactions amplify the consequences of this institutional setting when combined with ongoing delays of child‐bearing. The article concludes with speculations about future trends in current and prospective lowest‐low‐fertility countries.

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Crossref · 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2002.00641.x

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  • A rapid postponement transition has been taking place in South Korea since the early 1980s, with marriages and first births being shifted to ever higher ages.

    “In parallel with a fast-paced fertility decline, a rapid “postponement transition” (Kohler, Billari, and Ortega 2002) has been taking place since the early 1980s, with marriages and first births being shifted to ever higher ages.”

    From Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect (2018) · cites this paper as Kohler, Billari, and Ortega 2002

  • The subsequent decline in Italian emigration, linked with a significant fertility decline that made Italy a lowest-low fertility forerunner, led to minimum PTR levels of about 21-22 per 1000 between 1987 and 1995, with MST below 10 percent.

    “The subsequent decline in emigration, linked with the significant fertility decline that eventually turned Italy into a “lowest‐low fertility” forerunner (Kohler, Billari, and Ortega 2002), leads to minimum levels of PTR, which reaches about 21–22 per 1000 between 1987 and 1995 (with MST lower than 10 percent).”

    From Demography: Fast and Slow (2022) · cites this paper as Kohler, Billari, and Ortega 2002

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Authors
Kohler, H., Billari, F. C., & Ortega, J. A.
Affiliations
  • University of Pennsylvania (US)
  • Bocconi University (IT)
  • Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (ES)
ORCID
Venue
Population and Development Review
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2002-12
Volume
28
Issue
4
Pages
641-680
ISSN
  • 0098-7921 (ISSN-L)
  • 1728-4457
DOI
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2002.00641.x
OpenAlex
W2006490730
Cited by
1,451
References
2
Citations by year
2026: 33 · 2025: 37 · 2024: 70 · 2023: 53 · 2022: 64 · 2021: 104 · 2020: 79 · 2019: 48 · 2018: 54 · 2017: 57 · 2016: 76 · 2015: 64 · 2014: 71 · 2013: 71 · 2012: 65
FWCI
102.44
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 422 d)
Locations
  • Population and Development Review (publishedVersion)
  • Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
  • Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Reproductive Health and Contraception
Keywords
fertility decline, age at first birth, postponement of childbearing, cohort fertility, returns to human capital, economic uncertainty, social interaction effects

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