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Cited by 233Yersinia bacterium, plague, ectoparasites researchClimate Change and Health ImpactsZoonotic diseases and public health

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 25 of the 26 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Incidence of plague associated with increased winter-spring precipitation in New Mexico.

Parmenter, R R, Yadav, E P, Parmenter, C A, Ettestad, P, Gage, K L·1999·The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
DOI 10.4269/ajtmh.1999.61.814
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Abstract

Plague occurs episodically in many parts of the world, and some outbreaks appear to be related to increased abundance of rodents and other mammals that serve as hosts for vector fleas. Climate dynamics may influence the abundance of both fleas and mammals, thereby having an indirect effect on human plague incidence. An understanding of the relationship between climate and plague could be useful in predicting periods of increased risk of plague transmission. In this study, we used correlation analyses of 215 human cases of plague in relation to precipitation records from 1948 to 1996 in areas of New Mexico with history of human plague cases (38 cities, towns, and villages). We conducted analyses using 3 spatial scales: global (El Niño-Southern Oscillation Indices [SOI]); regional (pooled state-wide precipitation averages); and local (precipitation data from weather stations near plague case sites). We found that human plague cases in New Mexico occurred more frequently following winter-spring periods (October to May) with above-average precipitation (mean plague years = 113% of normal rain/ snowfall), resulting in 60% more cases of plague in humans following wet versus dry winter-spring periods. However, we obtained significant results at local level only; regional state-wide precipitation averages and SOI values exhibited no significant correlations to incidence of human plague cases. These results are consistent with our hypothesis of a trophic cascade in which increased winter-spring precipitation enhances small mammal food resource productivity (plants and insects), leading to an increase in the abundance of plague hosts. In addition, moister climate conditions may act to promote flea survival and reproduction, also enhancing plague transmission. Finally, the result that the number of human plague cases in New Mexico was positively associated with higher than normal winter-spring precipitation at a local scale can be used by physicians and public health personnel to identify and predict periods of increased risk of plague transmission to humans.

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Crossref · 10.4269/ajtmh.1999.61.814

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Metadata

Authors
Parmenter, R. R., Yadav, E. P., Parmenter, C. A., Ettestad, P., & Gage, K. L.
Affiliations
University of New Mexico (US)
ORCID
Parmenter, R R
Venue
The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
Publisher
American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Published
1999-11
Volume
61
Issue
5
Pages
814-821
ISSN
0002-9637 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.4269/ajtmh.1999.61.814
OpenAlex
W2103687284
Cited by
233
References
26
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 13
FWCI
1.58
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Yersinia bacterium, plague, ectoparasites research
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Zoonotic diseases and public health
Keywords
plague, Yersinia pestis, climate and disease, rodent hosts, flea vectors, trophic cascades, small mammal abundance, ENSO, New Mexico
MeSH terms
Animals, Siphonaptera, Humans, Insect Vectors, New Mexico, Plague, Rain, Regression Analysis, Rodentia, Seasons, Yersinia pestis, Incidence

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