GEOGRAPHIC AND ECOLOGIC DISTRIBUTIONS OF THE ANOPHELES GAMBIAE COMPLEX PREDICTED USING A GENETIC ALGORITHM
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The distribution of the Anopheles gambiae complex of malaria vectors in Africa is uncertain due to under-sampling of vast regions. We use ecologic niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of three members of the complex (A. gambiae, A. arabiensis, and A. quadriannulatus) and demonstrate the statistical significance of the models. Predictions correspond well to previous estimates, but provide detail regarding spatial discontinuities in the distribution of A. gambiae s.s. that are consistent with population genetic studies. Our predictions also identify large areas of Africa where the presence of A. arabiensis is predicted, but few specimens have been obtained, suggesting under-sampling of the species. Finally, we project models developed from African distribution data for the late 1900s into the past and to South America to determine retrospectively whether the deadly 1929 introduction of A. gambiae sensu lato into Brazil was more likely that of A. gambiae sensu stricto or A. arabiensis.
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GARP models have predictive value for mosquitoes that is statistically significant by intrinsic and extrinsic tests.
“GARP models have been shown to have predictive value for mosquitoes that is statistically significant by both stringent intrinsic tests performed on a subset of the data during development and by extrinsic tests of models using data not included in model development (Peterson 2001, Levine et al. 2004).”
From Spread of The Tiger: Global Risk of Invasion by The Mosquito <i>Aedes albopictus</i> (2007) · cites this paper as Levine et al. 2004
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- Authors
- LEVINE, R. S., PETERSON, A. T., & BENEDICT, M. Q.
- Affiliations
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- Venue
- The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
- Published
- 2004-02
- Volume
- 70
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 105-109
- ISSN
- 0002-9637 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2113237317
- Cited by
- 117
- References
- 21
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 8.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- other-oa
- Locations
- American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- KU ScholarWorks (The University of Kansas) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Keywords
- Anopheles gambiae s.l., Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles quadriannulatus, malaria vectors, species distribution prediction, genetic algorithm, geographic distribution, undersampling, population structure, South America, Africa
- MeSH terms
- Africa, Algorithms, Animals, Anopheles, Insect Vectors, Models, Biological, South America, Ecosystem
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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