Passenger Wait Time Perceptions at Bus Stops: Empirical Results and Impact on Evaluating Real - Time Bus Arrival Information
Open accessAbstract
This study quantifies the relationship between perceived and actual waiting times experienced by passengers awaiting the arrival of a bus at a bus stop. Understanding such a relationship would be useful in quantifying the value of providing realtime information to passengers on the time until the next bus is expected to arrive at a bus stop. Data on perceived and actual passenger waiting times, along with socioeconomic characteristics, were collected at bus stops where no real-time bus arrival information is provided, and relationships between perceived and actual waiting times are estimated. The results indicate that passengers do perceive time to be greater than the actual amount of time waited. However, the hypothesis that the rate of change of perceived time does not vary with respect to the actual waiting time could not be rejected (over a range of 3 to 15 minutes). Assuming that a passenger’s perceived waiting time is equal to the actual time when presented with accurate real-time bus arrival information, the value of the eliminated additional time is assessed in the form of reduced vehicle hours per day resulting from a longer headway that produces the same mean passenger waiting time. The eliminated additional time is also assessed in the form of uncertainty in the headway resulting in the same extra waiting time. Naturally, such benefits of passenger information can only be confirmed when the actual effect of information on the perception of waiting time is quantified.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This pilot study quantifies how bus passengers’ perceived waiting times differ from actual waiting times when no real-time arrival information is provided. It finds that passengers overestimate waiting time by 0.84 minutes on average, and translates that overestimate into potential operating and service-quality benefits of real-time information.
Key findings
- Passengers perceived waiting time as greater than actual: mean perceived waiting time was 6.6 minutes versus mean actual waiting time of 5.77 minutes, a difference of 0.84 minutes.
- In an OLS model with 83 observations, perceived waiting time increased with actual waiting time, but the slope was not statistically different from 1; the intercept was significantly greater than 0, and a joint test rejected perceived time equaling actual time. The data did not show that the additional perceived time varied with actual waiting time over the 3-to-15-minute range.
- In a model adding socioeconomic variables, walking time to the destination and presence of a time constraint had explanatory value: longer walking time was associated with greater exaggeration of perceived waiting time, while a time constraint brought perceived waiting time closer to actual time. Other socioeconomic variables were not significant at the 0.05 level.
- Eliminating the 0.84-minute overestimate via real-time information was equivalent to a reduction of 7.77 vehicle-hours per day, or a 4.4% saving, for a route with 30-minute running time, 10-minute headway, and 8 hours of weekday service. For a 10-minute headway, the equivalent headway coefficient of variation was 0.40, corresponding to a headway standard deviation of 4.0 minutes.
Methods
- Three students surveyed 83 passengers waiting for Campus Area Bus Service buses at five stops on three routes over approximately one year, with a response rate close to 100%. Data included perceived waiting time, actual waiting time, and socioeconomic characteristics.
- The main analysis estimated an OLS regression of perceived waiting time on actual waiting time, tested whether the slope equaled 1 and the intercept equaled 0, and jointly tested perceived time equaling actual time. A second model added walking time to destination and a time-constraint dummy variable.
- The estimated 0.84-minute mean difference was then converted into equivalent vehicle-hours per day saved and an equivalent headway coefficient of variation, assuming deterministic headways and random passenger arrivals.
Limitations
- The paper states this was a pilot study on a university campus-based transit system; it calls for larger transit systems, longer routes, more heterogeneous traveling populations, a wider range of actual waiting times, larger data sets, and more complete socioeconomic variables. Some socioeconomic variables had as few as 46 observations because data were not collected for every passenger due to survey time constraints.
- The paper states that the key assumption—that accurate real-time information makes perceived waiting time equal actual waiting time—requires further validation, ideally through before-and-after surveys.
- Evident from the text: the sample is small (83 passengers), the observed actual waiting times are limited to 3–15 minutes, and the study does not directly test the effect of real-time information on perceptions.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
0 of 2 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
The intercept in the linear regression of perceived on actual waiting time is significantly greater than 0.
“with a t-statistic of .77, the estimate of .33 is significantly different from 0 at the 0.0 level.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
The presence of a time constraint is associated with perceived waiting time closer to actual waiting time.
“the presence of a time constraint brings the perceived waiting time closer to the actual time”
- Also stated in: § Socioeconomic Variables · hedged
“The negative value of the parameter estimate corresponding to the time constraint dummy variable supports the dominance of the former effect.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Socioeconomic Variables · hedged
- Findingreasoning
A longer walking time to the destination is associated with a greater exaggeration in perceived waiting time.
“A longer walking time produces a greater exaggeration in the perceived waiting time”
- Also stated in: § Socioeconomic Variables · plain
“the positive parameter value of the walking time to destination variable”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Socioeconomic Variables · plain
- Findingown data
Walking time to the destination from the bus stop and presence of a time constraint exhibit explanatory value for perceived waiting time.
“the walking time to the destination from the bus stop at which the passenger is waiting and the presence of a time constraint do exhibit some explanatory value.”
- Also stated in: § Socioeconomic Variables · boosted
“The t-statistics of the estimates of the intercept and the parameters of the two additional variables reflect values significantly different from 0 at the 0.0 level.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Socioeconomic Variables · boosted
- Findingown data
The mean difference between perceived and actual waiting time is 0.84 minutes.
“In light of the quantified difference of 0.84 minutes”
- Also stated in: § Summary and Future Research · plain
“The mean difference between the perceived waiting time by passengers and the actual time is 0.84 minutes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Summary and Future Research · plain
- Findingown data
None of the socioeconomic variables investigated had parameter estimates significantly different from 0 at the 0.05 level.
“Investigating the socioeconomic variables listed above, none are found to have parameter estimates significantly different from 0 at the 0.05 level.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Elimination of increased perceived waiting times on a bus route with deterministic headway could conceptually be traded off against increased variability in headways.
“Elimination of increased perceived waiting times on a bus route that does not exhibit any variability in its headway could conceptually be traded off against increased variability in headways.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: When accurate real-time bus arrival information is provided, passengers will perceive their waiting time to be equal to the actual waiting time.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Passengers arrive at bus stops in a totally random manner (arrivals follow the Poisson process).
- Interpretationreasoning
The percent reduction Z in vehicle hours per day required for service provision is given by Z = 1.68/(h+1.68).
“As a result, the percent reduction Z in the vehicle hours per day required for service provision is given by the following: Z = .68(h+.68) -(3)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: When accurate real-time bus arrival information is provided, passengers will perceive their waiting time to be equal to the actual waiting time.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The headway is deterministic (headway variance is 0) for the vehicle-hours analysis.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Passengers arrive at bus stops in a totally random manner (arrivals follow the Poisson process).
- Interpretationreasoning
Real-time passenger information systems could potentially reduce the perceived waiting time for buses when providing accurate information.
“Because passengers perceive waiting times to be greater than actual waiting times at a bus stop, real-time passenger information systems could potentially reduce the perceived waiting time for buses when providing accurate information.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: When accurate real-time bus arrival information is provided, passengers will perceive their waiting time to be equal to the actual waiting time.
- Interpretationown data
There is good evidence that a difference between perceived and actual waiting times exists to motivate a more comprehensive data collection and modeling effort.
“Based on this pilot study, there is good evidence that a difference between perceived and actual waiting times does exist to motivate a more comprehensive data collection and modeling effort.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation
The difference of 0.84 minutes is equivalent to a headway coefficient of variation given by CV[h] = sqrt(1.96/E[h] - 1) for a given expected headway.
“the result depends on the value of E[h], and is given by the following: CV[h] = .96E[h] -/ (5”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Larson and Odoni 1981
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Passengers arrive at bus stops in a totally random manner (arrivals follow the Poisson process).
- Interpretationown data
The finding that perceived waiting times are statistically greater than actual waiting times within the range of the data identifies one possible contributor to the well-established conclusion that out-of-vehicle travel time is more onerous than in-vehicle travel time.
“Finally, it is worth pointing out that the finding that perceived waiting times are statistically greater than actual waiting times within the range of the data identifies one possible contributor to the well-established conclusion that out of vehicle travel time (of which waiting time at a bus stop is a possible component) is more onerous to travelers than in-vehicle travel time (Ben Akiva and L”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Ben Akiva and Lerman 1985
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- The quote only partly states this claim. 4
- May combine two claims. 4
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 6
The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataPassengers waiting for buses without real-time arrival information perceive waiting time to be greater than actual waiting time, within actual waits of 3 to 15 minutes.
“The results indicate that passengers do perceive time to be greater than the actual amount of time waited.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataThe rate of change of perceived waiting time with respect to actual waiting time is not statistically different from 1 over actual waits of 3 to 15 minutes.
“However, the hypothesis that the rate of change of perceived time does not vary with respect to the actual waiting time could not be rejected (over a range of 3 to 15 minutes).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe mean perceived waiting time of surveyed passengers is 6.6 minutes, while their mean actual waiting time is 5.77 minutes.
“Empirically, the mean perceived waiting time of the passengers surveyed is 6.6 minutes, while their mean actual waiting time is 5.77 minutes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
FindingreasoningThe equivalent coefficient of variation varies between 0.580 and 0.37 for mean headways ranging from 5 to 30 minutes.
“The equivalent coefficient of variation is seen to vary between 0.580 and 0.37.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Passengers arrive at bus stops in a totally random manner (arrivals follow the Poisson process).
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenUnder deterministic headways and running times, the vehicle-hours per day required for service provision is the ratio of the running time to the headway multiplied by the total hours of service provided per day.
“Furthermore, under deterministic headways and running times, the vehicle-hours per day required for service provision is the ratio of the running time to the headway multiplied by the total hours of service provided per day.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The headway is deterministic (headway variance is 0) for the vehicle-hours analysis.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
Interpretationnone givenThe study demonstrated the feasibility of examining the questions of interest.
“This study demonstrated the feasibility of examining the questions of interest and points to several directions regarding future research.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
InterpretationreasoningIf real-time passenger information eliminates exaggerated perceptions of waiting time, the transit agency can maintain the same mean perceived passenger waiting time with a longer headway, reducing vehicle-hours per day.
“If the exaggeration in the perceptions of waiting time is eliminated by providing real-time passenger information, the quantified difference of 0.84 minutes will be reduced to 0. Under such a condition, the transit agency can achieve the same level of service, as measured by the mean passenger waiting time, by employing fewer vehicle-hours per day.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: When accurate real-time bus arrival information is provided, passengers will perceive their waiting time to be equal to the actual waiting time.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
InterpretationreasoningThe equivalent coefficient of variation of headway is a measure of bus service quality as perceived by passengers.
“The equivalent coefficient of variation of headway is a measure of the bus service quality as perceived by passengers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenUnder deterministic headways and random passenger arrivals, the mean actual passenger waiting time is equal to half the deterministic headway.
“Assuming that the headway is deterministic (i.e., the headway variance is 0) and passengers arrive in a totally random manner (i.e., arrivals follow the Poisson process), the mean actual passenger waiting time is equal to half the deterministic headway.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The headway is deterministic (headway variance is 0) for the vehicle-hours analysis.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Passengers arrive at bus stops in a totally random manner (arrivals follow the Poisson process).
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Interpretationnone givenThe transit service used in this pilot study is small enough to be manageable, yet large enough to reflect situations pertinent to more extensive transit services in urban areas.
“The transit service used in this pilot study is small enough to be manageable, yet large enough to reflect situations pertinent to more extensive transit services in urban areas.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe reduction in perceived waiting times could potentially be translated into reduced operating costs or increased passenger satisfaction and, ultimately, into increased ridership for public transit.
“The reduction in perceived waiting times could potentially be translated into reduced operating costs or increased passenger satisfaction and, ultimately, into increased ridership for public transit, depending on the policies adopted by the transit agency in conjunction with the introduction of real-time passenger information systems.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: When accurate real-time bus arrival information is provided, passengers will perceive their waiting time to be equal to the actual waiting time.
The authors state this as an assumption.
When accurate real-time bus arrival information is provided, passengers will perceive their waiting time to be equal to the actual waiting time.
“When accurate bus arrival information is provided, it is assumed that passengers will perceive their waiting time to be equal to the actual waiting time.”
“it is assumed that real-time passenger information will eliminate exaggerated perceptions of waiting time.”
“the assumption that such information will produce accurate perceived waiting times.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The headway is deterministic (headway variance is 0) for the vehicle-hours analysis.
“Assuming that the headway is deterministic (i.e., the headway variance is 0)”
“assuming a deterministic headway”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Passengers arrive at bus stops in a totally random manner (arrivals follow the Poisson process).
“passengers arrive in a totally random manner (i.e., arrivals follow the Poisson process)”
“Assuming that passengers arrive in a totally random manner”
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- Authors
- Mishalani, R., McCord, M., & Wirtz, J.
- Affiliations
- The Ohio State University (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Public Transportation
- Published
- 2006-05
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 89-106
- ISSN
- 1077-291X (ISSN-L)
- 2375-0901
- OpenAlex
- W2022832686
- Semantic Scholar
- 37448ef48b3e6c5f728a43816df7f89f2e103b73
- Cited by
- 154
- References
- 8
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 15 · 2017: 14 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 7
- FWCI
- 5.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Public Transportation (publishedVersion)
- Digital Commons - University of South Florida (University of South Florida) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Ohio State University
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Transportation Planning and Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Transportation and Mobility Innovations
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Civil and Structural Engineering › Urban Transport Systems Analysis
- Keywords
- perceived waiting time, bus stops, passenger information, headway, value of information, public transport
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-11-06.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-11-06.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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