Attribution of ground-level ozone to anthropogenic and natural sources of NO x and reactive carbon in a global chemical transport model
Open accessPreprint — published as 10.5194/acp-20-10707-2020
Abstract
Abstract. We perform a source attribution for tropospheric and ground-level ozone using a novel technique which accounts separately for the contributions of the two chemically distinct emitted precursors (reactive carbon and oxides of nitrogen) to the chemical production of ozone in the troposphere. By tagging anthropogenic emissions of these precursors according to the geographical region from which they are emitted, we determine source/receptor relationships for ground-level ozone. Our methodology reproduces earlier results obtained through other techniques for ozone source attribution, and also delivers additional information about the modelled processes responsible for intercontinental transport of ozone, which is especially strong during the spring months. The current generation of chemical transport models used to support international negotiations aimed at reducing the intercontinental transport of ozone show especially strong inter-model differences in simulated springtime ozone. Current models also simulate a large range of different responses of surface ozone to methane, one of the major precursors of ground-level ozone. Using our novel source attribution technique, we show that emissions of NOx from international shipping over the high seas play a disproportionately strong role in our model system to the hemispheric-scale response of surface ozone to changes in methane, as well as to the springtime maximum in intercontinental transport of ozone and its precursors. We recommend a renewed focus on improvement of the representation of the chemistry of ship NOx emissions in current-generation models. We demonstrate the utility of ozone source attribution as a powerful model diagnostic tool, and recommend that similar source attribution techniques become a standard part of future model inter-comparison studies.
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CH4 and NOx participate in a chain reaction that leads to the dissolution of CH4 and formation of O3.
“Moreover, CH4 and NO𝑋 participate in a chain reaction that leads to the dissolution of CH4 and formation of the O3 (Butler et al., 2020).”
From Decoding methane concentration in Alberta oil sands: A machine learning exploration (2025) · cites this paper as Butler et al., 2020
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The impact of short-lived climate pollutants on the human health
Mathew, N., Somanathan, A., Tirpude, A., & Arfin, T. (2024) · Environmental Pollution and Management · doi:10.1016/j.epm.2024.04.001 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Significant contribution of lightning NOx to summertime surface O3 on the Tibetan Plateau
Li, M., Mao, J., Chen, S., Bian, J., Bai, Z., Wang, X., Chen, W., & Yu, P. (2022) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154639 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Li, S., Yang, Y., Wang, H., Li, P., Li, K., Ren, L., Wang, P., Liao, H., Mao, Y., & Liao, H. (2023) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.119776 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Stockwell, C. E., Coggon, M. M., Schwantes, R. H., Harkins, C., Verreyken, B. W. D., Lyu, C., Zhu, Q., Xu, L., Gilman, J. B., Lamplugh, A., et al. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-1121-2025 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Source attribution of near-surface ozone trends in the United States during 1995–2019
Li, P., Yang, Y., Wang, H., Li, S., Li, K., Wang, P., Liao, H., & Liao, H. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-5403-2023 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Liu, S., Li, X., Wei, J., Shu, L., Jin, J., Fu, T., Yang, X., & Zhu, L. (2024) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.4c00339 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Lu, X. H., Liu, Y., Su, J., Weng, X., Ansari, T. U., Zhang, Y., He, G., Zhu, Y., Wang, H., Zeng, G., et al. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-7991-2025 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Self-citationImpacts of atmospheric particulate matter deposition on phytoplankton: A review
Thiagarajan, V., Nah, T., & Xin, X. (2024) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175280 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
von Schneidemesser, E., Sibiya, B., Caseiro, A., Butler, T. M., Lawrence, M. G., Leitão, J., Lupaşcu, A., & Salvador, P. (2021) · Atmospheric Environment X · doi:10.1016/j.aeaoa.2021.100122 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate and Tropospheric Oxidizing Capacity
Fiore, A. M., Mickley, L. J., Zhu, Q., & Baublitz, C. B. (2024) · Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences · doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-032320-090307 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
How Have Divergent Global Emission Trends Influenced Long‐Range Transported Ozone to North America?
Mathur, R., Kang, D., Napelenok, S. L., Xing, J., Hogrefe, C., Sarwar, G., Itahashi, S., & Henderson, B. H. (2022) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2022jd036926 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
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Nawaz, M. O., Henze, D. K., Harkins, C., Cao, H., Nault, B. A., Jo, D. S., Jimenez, J. L., Anenberg, S. C., Goldberg, D. L., & Qu, Z. (2021) · Elementa Science of the Anthropocene · doi:10.1525/elementa.2021.00043 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Future tropospheric ozone budget and distribution over east Asia under a net-zero scenario
Hou, X., Wild, O., Zhu, B., & Lee, J. D. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-15395-2023 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Guo, Y., Roychoudhury, C., Mirrezaei, M. A., Kumar, R., Sorooshian, A., & Arellano, A. F. (2024) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-17-4331-2024 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
National and transboundary contributions to surface ozone concentration across European countries
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Sustainable conversion of natural gas to hydrogen using transition metal carbides
Abdullah, M., & Sajjadi, B. (2024) · International Journal of Hydrogen Energy · doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2024.09.354 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Nalam, A., Lupaşcu, A., Ansari, T. U., & Butler, T. M. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-5287-2025 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Self-citationSources of surface O 3 in the UK: tagging O 3 within WRF-Chem
Romero‐Alvarez, J., Lupaşcu, A., Lowe, D., Badía, A., Archer‐Nicholls, S., Dorling, S. R., Reeves, C. E., & Butler, T. M. (2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-22-13797-2022 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Self-citationGhosh, A., & Manna, S. (2024) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-024-35755-9 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Decoding methane concentration in Alberta oil sands: A machine learning exploration
Sysoeva, L., Bouderbala, I., Kent, M. H., Saha, E., Zambrano-Luna, B. A., Milne, R., & Wang, H. (2025) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112835 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Ansari, T. U., Nalam, A., Lupaşcu, A., Hinz, C., Grasse, S., & Butler, T. M. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-16833-2025 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Self-citationResearch progress in ozone generation technology and applications: A review
Wei, L., Xu, S. L., Sun, S., & Zhang, Y. (2026) · Process Safety and Environmental Protection · doi:10.1016/j.psep.2026.108460 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
A New Index Developed for Fast Diagnosis of Meteorological Roles in Ground-Level Ozone Variations
Chen, W., Wang, W., Jia, S., Mao, J., Yan, F., Zheng, L., Wu, Y., Zhang, X., Dong, Y., Kong, L., et al. (2022) · Advances in Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1007/s00376-021-1257-x · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Balsini, S. S., Shiroudi, A., Hatamjafari, F., Zahedi, E., Pourshamsian, K., & Oliaey, A. R. (2023) · Physical Chemistry Chemical Physics · doi:10.1039/d3cp00161j · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Recent trends in ozone sensing technology
Iqbal, M. M., Muhammad, G., Hussain, M. A., Hanif, H., Raza, M. A., & Shafiq, Z. (2023) · Analytical Methods · doi:10.1039/d3ay00334e · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Underappreciated roles of soil nitrogen oxide emissions on global acute health burden
Liu, S., Wei, J., Li, X., Shu, L., Zhang, J., Fu, T., Yang, X., & Zhu, L. (2024) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2024.109087 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Liu, L., Gong, H., Wang, L., Chen, W., Wu, R., Tao, W., Dong, Z., & Liu, B. (2023) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106852 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Impact of Climate Variability and Change on the Surface Ozone Response to NOx Emissions Reductions
Roy, E. J. L., Wong, A. Y. H., Eastham, S. D., Fiore, A. M., & Selin, N. E. (2025) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.5c01347 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Guo, Y., Mirrezaei, M. A., Sorooshian, A., & Arellano, A. F. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-5591-2025 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Dynamic evaluation of modeled ozone concentrations in Germany with four chemistry transport models
Thürkow, M., Schaap, M., Kranenburg, R., Pfäfflin, F., Neunhäuserer, L., Wolke, R., Heinold, B., Stoll, J., Lupaşcu, A., Nordmann, S., et al. (2023) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167665 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationThürkow, M., Banzhaf, S., Butler, T. M., Pültz, J., & Schaap, M. (2022) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119412 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationSummertime tropospheric ozone source apportionment study in the Madrid region (Spain)
de la Paz, D., Borge, R., de Andrés, J. M., Tovar, L., Sarwar, G., & Napelenok, S. L. (2024) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-24-4949-2024 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Source attribution of near-surface ozone pollution in Jiangsu Province of China over 2013–2019
He, S., Yang, Y., Wang, H., Wang, P., & Liao, H. (2025) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121205 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Augustin, J., Gilge, S., Appel, H., Dauert, U., Endler, C., Heesen, R., Höflich, C., Kuttler, W., Schlünzen, K. H., Straff, W., et al. (2025) · Allergy · doi:10.1111/all.70159 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Secluding the vegetation of India in retaliation to tropospheric ozone: a mechanistic approach
Singh, H., Gupta, A., Yadav, D. S., Singh, P., Singh, P., Agrawal, S. B., & Agrawal, M. (2024) · Discover Agriculture · doi:10.1007/s44279-024-00042-1 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Ramírez-Aldaba, H., López‐Serrano, P. M., García-Montiel, E., Morones-Esquivel, M. M., Bocanegra-Salazar, M., Borrego-Núñez, C., & Loera-Sánchez, J. M. (2025) · Pollutants · doi:10.3390/pollutants5010003 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Air quality and related health impact in the UNECE region: source attribution and scenario analysis
Belis, C. A., & Dingenen, R. V. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-8225-2023 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Ozone source attribution in polluted European areas during summer 2017 as simulated with MECO(n)
Kilian, M., Grewe, V., Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Mertens, M., Zahn, A., & Ziereis, H. (2024) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-24-13503-2024 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Investigating ozone build-up in the east of England during the July 2015 heat wave
Romero‐Alvarez, J., Lupaşcu, A., Dorling, S. R., Reeves, C. E., & Butler, T. M. (2025) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179464 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationShort-Term Ozone Exposure and Daily Mortality in Suburban and Rural Areas of Southern Europe
Doronzo, M. Á., Fernández, J. C., Gómez‐Barroso, D., Alonso-Colón, M., Núñez-Corcuera, B., & Ramis, R. (2025) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos16050625 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Effects of different emission inventories on tropospheric ozone and methane lifetime
Acquah, C., Stecher, L., Mertens, M., & Jöckel, P. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-13665-2025 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Impact of Elevated Ozone on Cabbage
Ramakrishnan, S., Dhevagi, P., Poornima, R., Ramya, A., Kannan, B., Chandrakumar, K., Bhaskaran, J., & Boomiraj, K. (2023) · International Journal of Environment and Climate Change · doi:10.9734/ijecc/2023/v13i113157 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Temperature responses from methane mitigation approaches vary widely due to non-methane impacts
Abernethy, S., Buechler, R., Kessler, M., & Jackson, R. B. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad60e0 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Chapter 14 : Air Quality. Fifth National Climate Assessment
West, J. J., Nolte, C. G., Bell, M. L., Fiore, A. M., Georgopoulos, P. G., Hess, J. J., Mickley, L. J., O’Neill, S. M., Pierce, J. R., Pinder, R. W., et al. (2023) · doi:10.7930/nca5.2023.ch14 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Butler, T. M., & Wild, O. (2022) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-15-2527-8_12-1 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationGhosh, S., Cholakian, A., Mailler, S., & Menut, L. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-6273-2025 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Goto, D., Yashiro, H., Yamashita, Y., Takigawa, M., Sudo, K., Uchida, J., Yumimoto, K., & Takemura, T. (2026) · Progress in Earth and Planetary Science · doi:10.1186/s40645-025-00791-7 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Ice Sheet Melt and Ozone Hole Variations on Three Solar Cycles Possible Anthropogenic Interactions
Hagen, M., & Azevedo, A. (2022) · Atmospheric and Climate Sciences · doi:10.4236/acs.2022.123032 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Kadhum, S. A., Hussain, L., Azeez, O. S., Abed, S. A., & Jaafar, B. I. (2025) · Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology · doi:10.1007/s42865-024-00084-9 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Tao, W., Fu, T., Liu, J., Su, H., Cheng, Y., Ni, R., Zhang, A., Guo, Y., Jiang, T., Mo, J., et al. (2026) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-026-01379-8 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Korhale, N., Ansari, T. U., Butler, T. M., Ovadnevaitė, J., Chevassus, E., Čeburnis, D., Martin, D., O'Dowd, C. D., & Coleman, L. F. (2026) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-26-6557-2026 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationButler, T. M., & Wild, O. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-15-2760-9_12 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationCalori, G., Briganti, G., Uboldi, F., Pepe, N., D’Elia, I., Mircea, M., Marras, G. F., & Piersanti, A. (2024) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos15020191 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Revisiting the direct and indirect impacts of enteric methane using a One Health perspective
Pressman, E. M., & Kebreab, E. (2025) · Animal Frontiers · doi:10.1093/af/vfaf010 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Prediction of Tropospheric Ozone Levels from Temperature in the Urban Area of Durango, DgoPreprint
Loera-Sánchez, J. M., Montiel-Antuna, E., Morones-Esquivel, M. M., López‐Serrano, P. M., Briseño‐Reyes, J., García-Montiel, E., & Ramírez-Aldaba, H. (2023) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1819.v1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Envisioning an Integrated Assessment System and Observation Network for the North Atlantic Ocean
Coleman, L., Govern, F. M. M., Ovadnevaitė, J., Čeburnis, D., Baroni, T., Barrie, L. A., & O'Dowd, C. D. (2021) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos12080955
(2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-189-rc1
(2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-173-rc1
(2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-173-rc2
(2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-189-rc2
Lupascu, A. (2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-189-ac1
Self-citationRomero‐Alvarez, J. (2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-173-ac1
Romero‐Alvarez, J. (2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-173-ac3
Romero‐Alvarez, J. (2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-173-ac2
Romero‐Alvarez, J. (2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-173-ac4
(2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-776-rc2
(2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-776-rc1
Li, P. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-678-ac2
Belis, C. A. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-776-ac1
Mertens, M. (2024) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-528-ac2
Mertens, M. (2024) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-528-ac3
Mertens, M. (2024) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-528-ac1
Phytotoxic Effects of Tropospheric Ozone Altered by Elevated Levels of Co2 in Indian MustardPreprint
Jothi, G. J., Sharma, D., Bhatia, A., Boomiraj, K., Antille, D. L., Kumar, S., Prasad, M., raj, R. R. K., Suroshe, S. S., & Vijay, D. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4865417
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Sengupta, A., Ismail, F. N., & Amarasoma, S. (2025) · Methane · doi:10.3390/methane4040028
Role of Volatile Organic Compounds: Antioxidants or Plant Regulators
Mishra, A. K., Madheshiya, P., Gupta, S., Sahoo, A., Gupta, G. S., & Tiwari, S. (2026) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-03608-7_4
Innovations in ozone gas sensing
Chavda, V., Pokar, R., Hirpara, D., & Suthar, V. (2026) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-33839-7.00009-4
Role of ozone as one of the greenhouse effect gases
Kumar, P., Sharma, A., Singh, S., Tariq, M., Kumar, M., Yadav, V. K., & Kumar, R. C. (2026) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-33839-7.00013-6
Emerging ozone generation strategies: mechanistic insights and application-driven developments
Ali, F. A. A., alsmail, H. K., Kumar, T. N. R., Deepak, J. R., Hakami, Y. A., Padmanabhan, S., Assadi, A. A., Kumar, P. K. K., Fadhillah, F., Saravanan, P., et al. (2026) · RSC Advances · doi:10.1039/d6ra01992g
Meteorologically Driven Changes in Future Global Air Quality: Physical and Monetized Impacts
McDuffie, E. E., Murray, L. T., Eastham, S. D., Jackson, M., Sarofim, M. C., Raich, W., Burnett, R., Anderton, J., Roman, H. A., Neumann, J. E., et al. (2026) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.5c14713
Nalam, A., Mertens, M., Grewe, V., van Caspel, W. E., Jonson, J. E., & Butler, T. M. (2026) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122328
Self-citation
- Authors
- Butler, T., Lupascu, A., & Nalam, A.
- Affiliations
- Research Institute for Sustainability at GFZ (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Butler, Tim
- Venue
- Atmospheric chemistry and physics
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2020-05-20
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 17
- Pages
- 10707-10731
- ISSN
- 1680-7316 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3028207660
- Cited by
- 101
- References
- 80
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 6
- FWCI
- 3.69
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Atmospheric chemistry and physics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Refubium (Universitätsbibliothek der Freien Universität Berlin) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Publication Database IASS (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Universitätsbibliothek der FU Berlin Hochschulschriftenstelle u. Dokumentenserver (cc-by)
- Funders
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
- Brandenburger Staatsministerium für Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kultur
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Keywords
- surface ozone, nitrogen oxides, reactive carbon, source-receptor relationships, ship emissions, methane, tropospheric chemistry
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