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Cited by 69Climate variability and modelsPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsEcosystem dynamics and resilience

Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models

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Parry, Isobel M., Ritchie, Paul D. L., Cox, Peter M.·2022·Earth System Dynamics
DOI 10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022

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Abstract

Amazon forest dieback is seen as a potential tipping point under climate change. These concerns are partly based on an early coupled climate–carbon cycle simulation that produced unusually strong drying and warming in Amazonia. In contrast, the fifth-generation Earth system models (Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP5) produced few examples of Amazon dieback under climate change. Here we examine results from seven sixth-generation models (Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6), which include interactive vegetation carbon and in some cases interactive forest fires. Although these models typically project increases in area-mean forest carbon across Amazonia under CO 2 -induced climate change, five of the seven models also produce abrupt reductions in vegetation carbon, which indicate localised dieback events. The northern South America (NSA) region, which contains most of the rainforest, is especially vulnerable in the models. These dieback events, some of which are mediated by fire, are preceded by an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in near-surface temperature, which is consistent with more extreme dry seasons. Based on the ensemble mean of the detected dieback events we estimate that 7±5 % of the NSA region will experience abrupt downward shifts in vegetation carbon for every degree of global warming past 1.5 ∘ C.

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  • Large parts of the Amazon forest are projected to experience mass mortality events due to climatic and land use-related disturbances in the coming decades, potentially accelerating climate change through carbon emissions and feedbacks with the climate system.

    “Large parts of the Amazon forest, however, are projected to experience mass mortality events due to climatic and land use-related disturbances in the coming decades5,6, potentially accelerating climate change through carbon emissions and feedbacks with the climate system2,3.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [6]

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Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Parry, I. M., Ritchie, P. D. L., & Cox, P. M.
Affiliations
University of Exeter (GB)
Corresponding author
  • Ritchie, Paul D. L.
  • Cox, Peter M.
ORCID
Venue
Earth System Dynamics
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Published
2022-11-24
Volume
13
Issue
4
Pages
1667-1675
ISSN
  • 2190-4979 (ISSN-L)
  • 2190-4987
DOI
10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022
OpenAlex
W4309874207
Cited by
69
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 16 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 4
FWCI
5.28
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Earth System Dynamics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (cc-by)
Funders
  • HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council
  • Horizon 2020
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
Keywords
tipping points, CMIP6, vegetation carbon, forest fires, climate change, northern South America, carbon-climate feedback

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