Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest
Open accessAbstract
We examine the evidence for the possibility that 21st-century climate change may cause a large-scale “dieback” or degradation of Amazonian rainforest. We employ a new framework for evaluating the rainfall regime of tropical forests and from this deduce precipitation-based boundaries for current forest viability. We then examine climate simulations by 19 global climate models (GCMs) in this context and find that most tend to underestimate current rainfall. GCMs also vary greatly in their projections of future climate change in Amazonia. We attempt to take into account the differences between GCM-simulated and observed rainfall regimes in the 20th century. Our analysis suggests that dry-season water stress is likely to increase in E. Amazonia over the 21st century, but the region tends toward a climate more appropriate to seasonal forest than to savanna. These seasonal forests may be resilient to seasonal drought but are likely to face intensified water stress caused by higher temperatures and to be vulnerable to fires, which are at present naturally rare in much of Amazonia. The spread of fire ignition associated with advancing deforestation, logging, and fragmentation may act as nucleation points that trigger the transition of these seasonal forests into fire-dominated, low biomass forests. Conversely, deliberate limitation of deforestation and fire may be an effective intervention to maintain Amazonian forest resilience in the face of imposed 21st-century climate change. Such intervention may be enough to navigate E. Amazonia away from a possible “tipping point,” beyond which extensive rainforest would become unsustainable.
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Satellite observations suggest a critical threshold in rainfall seasonality intensity at −400 mm of the maximum cumulative water deficit.
“Satellite observations of tree cover distributions across tropical South America suggest a critical threshold in rainfall seasonality intensity at −400 mm of the maximum cumulative water deficit37,80 (MCWD).”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [80]
In “Hydrological Thresholds on Current Forest Extent” (page unavailable), the paper uses satellite-derived maps and reports that savannas predominate below −400 mm MCWD when annual precipitation is below 1,500 mm. It explicitly says there is no sharp vegetation threshold: the forest–savanna transition spans −400 to −200 mm MCWD. The claim omits both the precipitation condition and the broad transition. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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Cites
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Improved allometric models to estimate the aboveground biomass of tropical trees
Chave, J., Réjou‐Méchain, M., Búrquez, A., Chidumayo, E., Colgan, M. S., Delitti, W. B. C., Duque, A., Eid, T., Fearnside, P. M., Goodman, R. C., et al. (2014) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12629 · Cited by 3,131 · see citing works
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
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The Global Extent and Determinants of Savanna and Forest as Alternative Biome States
Staver, A. C., Archibald, S., & Levin, S. A. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1210465 · Cited by 1,353 · see citing works
Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0 · Cited by 607 · see citing works
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Forecasting Fire Season Severity in South America Using Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
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Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species
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Self-citationPotential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth
Zarnetske, P. L., Gurevitch, J., Franklin, J., Groffman, P. M., Harrison, C. S., Hellmann, J. J., Hoffman, F. M., Kothari, S., Robock, A., Tilmes, S., et al. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1921854118 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts
Longo, M., Knox, R. G., Levine, N. M., Alves, L. F., Bonal, D., Camargo, P. B., Fitzjarrald, D. R., Hayek, M. N., Restrepo‐Coupe, N., Saleska, S. R., et al. (2018) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.15185 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
A systematic comparison of deforestation drivers and policy effectiveness across the Amazon biome
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Predicting pan-tropical climate change induced forest stock gains and losses – implications for REDD
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Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models
Melnikova, I., Hajima, T., Shiogama, H., Hayashi, M., Ito, A., Nishina, K., Tachiiri, K., & Yokohata, T. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02606-5 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
- Authors
- Malhi, Y., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Galbraith, D., Huntingford, C., Fisher, R., Zelazowski, P., Sitch, S., McSweeney, C., & Meir, P.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
- University of Sheffield (GB)
- Met Office (GB)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2009-12-08
- Volume
- 106
- Issue
- 49
- Pages
- 20610-20615
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2791614
- OpenAlex
- W2120220555
- Cited by
- 925
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 28 · 2025: 46 · 2024: 43 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 46 · 2021: 96 · 2020: 53 · 2019: 47 · 2018: 55 · 2017: 46 · 2016: 52 · 2015: 59 · 2014: 50 · 2013: 73 · 2012: 70
- FWCI
- 49.76
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/F005806/1, CEH010023)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Keywords
- rainfall regime, seasonal forest, drought, fire vulnerability, deforestation, forest fragmentation, tipping points, climate model projections, forest resilience
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon Dioxide, Models, Biological, Rain, Temperature, Trees, Tropical Climate, Extinction, Biological, Droughts, Climate Change
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