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Cited by 735Atmospheric and Environmental Gas DynamicsAtmospheric chemistry and aerosolsMethane Hydrates and Related Phenomena

Very Strong Atmospheric Methane Growth in the 4 Years 2014–2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement

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Nisbet, E. G., Manning, M. R., Dlugokencky, E. J., Fisher, R. E., Lowry, D., Michel, S. E., Myhre, C. Lund, Platt, S. M. +15 more·2019·Global Biogeochemical Cycles
DOI 10.1029/2018gb006009
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Abstract

Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 ± 0.7 ppb/year), 2016 (7.0 ± 0.7 ppb/year), and 2017 (7.7 ± 0.7 ppb/year), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1,775 ppb in 2006 to 1,850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13 C/ 12 C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ 13 C CH4 ) has shifted, now trending negative for more than a decade. The causes of methane's recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and subtropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive. The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/year in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden. However, anthropogenic methane emissions are relatively very large and thus offer attractive targets for rapid reduction, which are essential if the Paris Agreement aims are to be attained.

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  • Approximately half of the rise in global CH4 emissions since 2007 comes from the increasing number of ruminant livestock.

    “Approximately half of the rise since 2007 comes from the increasing number of ruminant livestock, whereas the other half has uncertain origins.”

    From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [50]

    Section 6.1 says expanding tropical ruminant populations may have contributed to methane growth, and the discussion says cattle probably contribute alongside wetlands. Section 5 says the relative causes of the rise are not yet constrained. The paper does not assign approximately half of the rise since 2007 to livestock or identify the other half as having uncertain origins. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Global CH4 emissions have risen rapidly since 2007, with a further acceleration after 2014.

    “Global CH 4 emissions have risen rapidly since 2007, with a further acceleration after 2014 (50).”

    From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [50]

    The Results and Figure 3 discussion report that atmospheric methane growth resumed in 2007 and became stronger from 2014 (page numbers not supplied). But Section 5 says the causes remain uncertain and may involve changes in emissions, sinks, or both; the paper does not establish that global emissions themselves accelerated. (LLM, conf=0.90)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • The other half of the rise in global CH4 emissions since 2007 has uncertain origins.

    “Approximately half of the rise since 2007 comes from the increasing number of ruminant livestock, whereas the other half has uncertain origins.”

    From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [50]

    Section 5 says the causes of methane’s rise are not fully understood and that evidence is insufficient to determine the relative contributions of sources and sinks. Section 6.1 discusses expanding ruminant populations as one possible contributor, but the paper does not establish that ruminants account for half the rise or define a remaining half of uncertain origin. The uncertainty is supported; the numerical split is not. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

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Authors
Nisbet, E. G., Manning, M. R., Dlugokencky, E. J., Fisher, R. E., Lowry, D., Michel, S. E., Myhre, C. L., Platt, S. M., Allen, G., Bousquet, P., Brownlow, R., Cain, M., France, J. L., Hermansen, O., Hossaini, R., Jones, A. E., Levin, I., Manning, A. C., Myhre, G., Pyle, J. A., Vaughn, B. H., Warwick, N. J., & White, J. W. C.
Affiliations
  • Royal Holloway University of London (GB)
  • Victoria University of Wellington (NZ)
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
  • Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (US)
  • NILU (NO)
  • University of Manchester (GB)
  • Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR)
  • University of Groningen (NL)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • British Antarctic Survey (GB)
  • Lancaster University (GB)
  • Heidelberg University (DE)
  • University of East Anglia (GB)
  • CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO)
  • University of Cambridge (GB)
Corresponding author
  • Nisbet, E. G.
  • Manning, M. R.
  • Dlugokencky, E. J.
ORCID
Venue
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published
2019-03
Volume
33
Issue
3
Pages
318-342
ISSN
  • 0886-6236 (ISSN-L)
  • 1944-9224
DOI
10.1029/2018gb006009
OpenAlex
W2912377319
Cited by
735
References
3
Citations by year
2026: 64 · 2025: 74 · 2024: 101 · 2023: 121 · 2022: 104 · 2021: 155 · 2020: 79 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 1 · 2016: 2
FWCI
47.87
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Global Biogeochemical Cycles (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (acceptedVersion)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
  • Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (submittedVersion)
  • NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
  • Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nd)
  • University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
  • Natural Environment Research Council (NE/I028874/1, NE/K006045/1, NE/I014683/1, NE/M001768/1, NE/P019641/1, NE/N016238/1, NE/S00159X/1)
  • Norges Forskningsråd
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Chemistry › Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
Keywords
atmospheric methane, methane growth rate, methane emissions, biogenic methane, thermogenic methane, methane sinks, Paris Agreement, global warming, greenhouse gas emissions reduction

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