Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992
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Human activities over the last three centuries have significantly transformed the Earth's environment, primarily through the conversion of natural ecosystems to agriculture. This study presents a simple approach to derive geographically explicit changes in global croplands from 1700 to 1992. By calibrating a remotely sensed land cover classification data set against cropland inventory data, we derived a global representation of permanent croplands in 1992, at 5 min spatial resolution [Ramankutty and Foley, 1998]. To reconstruct historical croplands, we first compile an extensive database of historical cropland inventory data, at the national and subnational level, from a variety of sources. Then we use our 1992 cropland data within a simple land cover change model, along with the historical inventory data, to reconstruct global 5 min resolution data on permanent cropland areas from 1992 back to 1700. The reconstructed changes in historical croplands are consistent with the history of human settlement and patterns of economic development. By overlaying our historical cropland data set over a newly derived potential vegetation data set, we analyze our results in terms of the extent to which different natural vegetation types have been converted for agriculture. We further examine the extent to which croplands have been abandoned in different parts of the world. Our data sets could be used within global climate models and global ecosystem models to understand the impacts of land cover change on climate and on the cycling of carbon and water. Such an analysis is a crucial aid to sharpen our thinking about a sustainable future.
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The data were analyzed using a Geographic Information System to estimate global areas and populations within a simplified set of terrestrial biomes and world regions.
“These data were analyzed using a Geographic Information System to estimate global areas and populations within a simplified set of terrestrial biomes (aggregated from the potential vegetation classes of ref. 28) and world regions (after ref. 1).”
From Used planet: a global history (2013) · cites this paper as [28]
For land conversion emissions, the study assumes that cropland expansion occurred in the same proportions by biome in the AW1 scenario as in the real world.
“For “land conversion” emissions, we assume that cropland expansion occurred in the same proportions by biome in the AW1 scenario as in the RW, calculated as in previous studies”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [26]
Most cropland abandonment occurred in eastern North America during the early 1900s but expanded to China, southern South America and Europe by mid-century.
“Most cropland abandonment occurred in eastern North America during the early 1900s but expanded to China, southern South America and Europe by mid-century.”
From Mapping the world's degraded lands (2015) · cites this paper as Ramankutty and Foley (1999)
Recent satellite advances have enabled new global scale datasets of agricultural land cover, which have been developed by merging satellite derived land cover maps with ground level agricultural inventory data sets.
“Recent satellite advances have enabled new global scale datasets of agricultural land cover, which have been developed by merging satellite derived land cover maps with ground level agricultural inventory data sets (Cardille, Foley, & Costa, 2002;Goldewijk, 2001;Ramankutty & Foley, 1999).”
From Mapping the world's degraded lands (2015) · cites this paper as Ramankutty & Foley, 1999
Toward the end of the last century, abandonment was limited to the eastern portion of the U.S., parts of the Amazon basin and southern South America.
“Toward the end of the last century, abandonment was limited to the eastern portion of the U.S., parts of the Amazon basin and southern South America.”
From Mapping the world's degraded lands (2015) · cites this paper as Ramankutty and Foley (1999)
The HYDE database also provides information on pastures not captured by Ramankutty and Foley (1999).
“The HYDE database also provides information on pastures not captured by Ramankutty and Foley (1999).”
From Mapping the world's degraded lands (2015) · cites this paper as Ramankutty and Foley (1999)
Ramankutty and Foley (1999) found that the extent of cropland abandonment increased greatly from roughly 65 million ha in the 1950s to 225 million ha in 1990, and the rate of abandonment increased as well.
“They found that the extent of cropland abandonment increased greatly from roughly 65 million ha in the 1950s to 225 million ha in 1990, and the rate of abandonment increased as well.”
From Mapping the world's degraded lands (2015) · cites this paper as Ramankutty and Foley (1999)
The two global agricultural databases are difficult to compare because Ramankutty and Foley (1999) do not consider abandonment of pastureland, which is part of the Campbell et al. (2009) estimate.
“The two global agricultural databases are also difficult to compare because Ramankutty and Foley (1999) do not consider abandonment of pastureland, which is part of the Campbell et al. (2009) estimate.”
From Mapping the world's degraded lands (2015) · cites this paper as Ramankutty and Foley (1999)
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Ramankutty, N., & Foley, J. A.
- ORCID
- Ramankutty, Navin
- Venue
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 1999-12
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 997-1027
- ISSN
- 0886-6236 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-9224
- OpenAlex
- W2106256460
- Cited by
- 2,074
- References
- 54
- Citations by year
- 2026: 41 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 77 · 2023: 83 · 2022: 79 · 2021: 110 · 2020: 128 · 2019: 103 · 2018: 110 · 2017: 113 · 2016: 124 · 2015: 129 · 2014: 88 · 2013: 101 · 2012: 84
- FWCI
- 15.82
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Remote Sensing in Agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Environmental Changes in China
- Keywords
- cropland expansion, historical land cover change, land use change, potential natural vegetation, agricultural abandonment, settlement history, economic development
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