The DOI matches its Crossref record; 54 of the 54 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?
Open accessAbstract
A popular view is that the surge in the real price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by economic fundamentals, but was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in turn allowed speculation to become a major determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation has been driving policy efforts to tighten the regulation of oil derivatives markets. This survey reviews the evidence supporting this view. We identify six strands in the literature and discuss to what extent each sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead, there is strong evidence that the co-movement between spot and futures prices reflects common economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets.
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In the citing paper
“the evidence in Figure 2 suggests that the distinction between normal speculation and speculation that is excessive is moot, for if there is no speculation in the physical market at all there cannot have been excessive speculation either under any definition.”
From THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL (2014) · cites this paper as Fattouh et al. (2013)
In the citing paper
“This implication is fully consistent with other, more direct evidence on the potential impact of financial investors on oil futures prices (seeFattouh et al., 2013).”
From THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL (2014) · cites this paper as Fattouh et al., 2013
Citations
Cites
Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market
Kilian, L. (2009) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.99.3.1053 · Cited by 4,708
Self-citationTHE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL
Kilian, L., & Murphy, D. P. (2014) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.2322 · Cited by 1,472 · cited 13×
“This possibility is not likely to be a concern for structural models such Kilian and Murphy (2013), which leave the formation of expectations unspecified, but it affects the construction of theoretical models of the formation of oil prices.”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationIndex Investment and the Financialization of Commodities
Tang, K., & Xiong, W. A. (2012) · Financial Analysts Journal · doi:10.2469/faj.v68.n6.5 · Cited by 1,305
Understanding Crude Oil Prices
Hamilton, J. D. (2008) · The Energy Journal · doi:10.3386/w14492 · Cited by 1,271
Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08
Hamilton, J. D. (2009) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.1353/eca.0.0047 · Cited by 1,102
What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?
Alquist, R., & Kilian, L. (2010) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.1159 · Cited by 744
Self-citationSign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review
Fry-McKibbin, R. A., & Pagan, A. (2011) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.49.4.938 · Cited by 691
Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
Hughes, J. E., Knittel, C. R., & Sperling, D. (2008) · The Energy Journal · doi:10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol29-no1-9 · Cited by 668
Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics
Silvennoinen, A., & Thorp, S. (2013) · Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money · doi:10.1016/j.intfin.2012.11.007 · Cited by 650
Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages
Büyükşahin, B., & Robe, M. A. (2013) · Journal of International Money and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.08.004 · Cited by 618
Research works printed but not linked: 8
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- Kilian Lutz, 2009, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, Spring, 2009, 267
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL
Kilian, L., & Murphy, D. P. (2014) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.2322 · Cited by 1,472
Self-citationFinancialization of commodity markets
Cheng, I.-H., & Xiong, W. (2014) · Annual Review of Financial Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-financial-110613-034432 · Cited by 810
A model of financialization of commodities
BASAK, S., & PAVLOVA, A. (2016) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.12408 · Cited by 595
Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us
Baumeister, C. J. S., & Kilian, L. (2016) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.30.1.139 · Cited by 558
Self-citationOil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences
Kilian, L. (2014) · Annual Review of Resource Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-resource-083013-114701 · Cited by 354
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Fattouh, B., Kilian, L., & Mahadeva, L.
- Affiliations
- SOAS University of London (GB)
- University of Michigan (US)
- Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 57 Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6FA, UK..
- Venue
- The Energy Journal
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2013-07
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 7-33
- ISSN
- 0195-6574 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-9089
- OpenAlex
- W2118985681
- Cited by
- 491
- References
- 54
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 36 · 2019: 32 · 2018: 48 · 2017: 39 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 44 · 2014: 38 · 2013: 40
- FWCI
- 126.06
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- papers.ssrn.com
- Locations
- The Energy Journal (publishedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Keywords
- oil speculation, oil futures market, financialization, oil prices, economic fundamentals
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