CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 492Market Dynamics and VolatilityEconomics of Agriculture and Food MarketsFinancial Markets and Investment Strategies

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 54 of the 54 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?

Open access
Fattouh, Bassam, Kilian, Lutz, Mahadeva, Lavan·2013·The Energy Journal
DOI 10.5547/01956574.34.3.2
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

A popular view is that the surge in the real price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by economic fundamentals, but was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in turn allowed speculation to become a major determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation has been driving policy efforts to tighten the regulation of oil derivatives markets. This survey reviews the evidence supporting this view. We identify six strands in the literature and discuss to what extent each sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead, there is strong evidence that the co-movement between spot and futures prices reflects common economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets.

Overview

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.5547/01956574.34.3.2

Cites

54 of 54 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

We couldn’t retrieve this paper’s full text, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 8

  1. 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-No2-9 · DOI
  2. Kilian Lutz, 2009, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, Spring, 2009, 267
  3. Peck Anne E., 1985, Futures Markets: Their Economic Role, 1
  4. Pirrong Craig S., 1994, Regulation, 17, 52
  5. Ripple Ronald (2008). “Futures Trading: What is Excessive?” Oil and Gas Journal, June 9.
  6. Stoll Hans R., 2010, Journal of Applied Finance, 20, 7
  7. Working Holbrook, 1960, Stanford University Food Research Institute Studies, 1, 185
  8. Yergin Daniel, 1992, The Prize

Cited by

Sorted by citations

See all 492

Related

See all

Metadata

Authors
Fattouh, B., Kilian, L., & Mahadeva, L.
Affiliations
  • SOAS University of London (GB)
  • University of Michigan (US)
  • Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 57 Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6FA, UK..
ORCID
Venue
The Energy Journal
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Published
2013-07
Volume
34
Issue
3
Pages
7-33
ISSN
  • 0195-6574 (ISSN-L)
  • 1944-9089
DOI
10.5547/01956574.34.3.2
OpenAlex
W2118985681
Cited by
491
References
54
Citations by year
2026: 10 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 36 · 2019: 32 · 2018: 48 · 2017: 39 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 44 · 2014: 38 · 2013: 40
FWCI
126.06
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
Locations
  • The Energy Journal (publishedVersion)
  • SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Keywords
oil speculation, oil futures market, financialization, oil prices, economic fundamentals

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review