Long-term relationship between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China
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We investigated the relationship between a 2000-year history of nomadic migration and climate change in historical China.By using updated data and statistical methods, the study solved several unanswered questions from past research about the relationship between climate change and the nomadic migration, especially over the long term and on a large spatial scale.The study used correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis to quantitatively verify the following causal pathway: climate change → nomadic migration → conflicts between pastoralists and agriculturalists.In the long term, precipitation was a statistically more influential factor on nomadic migration than temperature in historical China.How climate change affects the migration of nomadic minorities in the long term is theoretically explained based on the Push-Pull model as well as statistical evidence.
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During the period from the end of the Eastern Han dynasty to the Southern and Northern dynasties, severe cold displaced northern groups toward the south, which is one of the factors that led to uprising of the five barbarian tribes.
“Furthermore, during a period that stretched from the end of the Eastern Han dynasty (25-220) to the Southern and Northern dynasties (420-581), severe cold again displaced northern groups toward south, which is one of the factors that led to uprising of the five barbarian tribes.33”
From Climate change and Chinese history: a review of trends, topics, and methods (2015) · cites this paper as [33]
The “Nomadic migration and conflicts between pastoralists and agriculturalists” section links climate-related migration to conflicts and identifies AD 300–450 as the Five Barbarian Chaos. But it associates that period’s migration peak with drought, not severe cold; “Methods and Results” finds precipitation, but not temperature, to be a significant predictor of migration in its causal analysis. The paper therefore supports the broader migration-and-conflict link, not the specific claim that severe cold drove this uprising. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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Self-citationPei, Q., Li, G., Winterhalder, B. P., & Lowman, M. D. (2019) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.13040 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Self-citationJaffe, Y. Y. (2020) · World Archaeology · doi:10.1080/00438243.2019.1741437 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
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Su, Y., He, J., Fang, X., & Teng, J. (2018) · The Holocene · doi:10.1177/0959683618782600 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Historical climate-war nexus in the eyes of geographers
Lee, H. F. (2020) · Asian Geographer · doi:10.1080/10225706.2020.1768571 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Migration and Climate in World History
Mauelshagen, F. (2018) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1057/978-1-137-43020-5_31 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Measuring the effect of climate change on wars in history
Lee, H. F. (2018) · Asian Geographer · doi:10.1080/10225706.2018.1504807 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Climate Change and the Pattern of the Hot Spots of War in Ancient China
Zhang, S., Zhang, D. D., & Li, J. (2020) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos11040378 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Self-citationTang, F., Shi, Z., Tian, Q., Du, X., & Zhang, Y. (2024) · Science China Earth Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11430-023-1296-9 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Zhang, Y., Han, L., Shao, X., Yang, Q., & Yin, Z. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03225-7 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
He, J., Su, Y., & Fang, X. (2020) · Journal of Quaternary Science · doi:10.1002/jqs.3183 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Ethnic Minorities, Traditional Livelihoods and Climate Change in China
Nursey‐Bray, M., Palmer, R., Chischilly, A. M., Rist, P., & Yin, L. (2022) · SpringerBriefs in climate studies · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-97826-6_5 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Rapid wet-dry climatic oscillations and large-scale social unrest in ancient China
Meng, X., Zhang, C., Li, G. K., Cheng, J., Cai, J., Liu, Y., Huo, L., Ni, Z., & Zhang, E. (2023) · 中国科学通报：英文版 · doi:10.1016/j.scib.2023.12.010 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Nomads and international relations: post-sedentarist dialogues
Heiskanen, J., MacKay, J., Neumann, İ. B., Wigen, E., Eskild, I., Hall, M. R., Engelhard, A., Owens, H., Levin, J., & Kappes, F. (2024) · Cambridge Review of International Affairs · doi:10.1080/09557571.2024.2426782 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
New evidence on the economics of climate and conflict
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Migration as a Response to Climate Disasters in Coastal Areas: Insights from Kerala, India
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Impacts of seismic activity and climatic change on Chinese history in the recent millennium
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Location of Cities, Ruggedness of Terrain, and the Social Trust of Residents: Evidence from China
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Human settlements in the Ordos Plateau since the Neolithic Age
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Li, A., & Chen, S. (2021) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1002/eap.2450 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Modeling Climate Change Impact on Health and Population Migration: A Systematic Review
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Beyond Boom and Bust: Climate in the History of Medieval Steppe Empires (C. 550-1350 CE)
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Rethinking Asia: the genealogy of critical thinking in East Asia
Bai, H., & Pan, H.-L. W. (2023) · Multicultural Education Review · doi:10.1080/2005615x.2023.2193928 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Gatdet, C., Adino, K., & Petros, T. (2024) · Cogent Social Sciences · doi:10.1080/23311886.2024.2354967 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Cost of resilience to climate change: migration, conflicts, and epidemics in imperial China
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Self-citationClimate Change in Historical Perspective: Violence, Conflict, and Migration
Pei, Q., Long, Y., & Lin, X. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-57365-6_389-1 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationLost in Luxury: Climate Change and Silk Consumption in Mid-Qing China (1735–1840 CE)
Qiu, M., Pei, Q., Lo, A. Y. H., & Fei, J. (2024) · The Professional Geographer · doi:10.1080/00330124.2024.2345883 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationTian, F., Su, Y., Chen, X., & Le, T. (2025) · Natural hazards and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Pei, Q. (2020) · Professional Geographer · doi:10.1080/00330124.2019.1653775 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Self-citationTime-scale effects in human-nature interactions, regionally and globally
Li, Y., Gao, M., Zhang, Z., Zhang, Y., & Peng, S. (2023) · Journal of Geographical Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11442-023-2143-5 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Climate change and world history: Evidence from the site of Sym-Ota 1 in the Aral Sea Basin
Brite, E. B., Торениязов, А. Ж., Hunter, S. A., Ammerman, S., Бекбаулиев, А., KHOZHALIPESOV, I., & Marston, J. M. (2026) · Quaternary Science Advances · doi:10.1016/j.qsa.2025.100313 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Mengjie, C., Shang, X., Yan, D., & Yan-feng, L. (2024) · Journal of Archaeological Science Reports · doi:10.1016/j.jasrep.2024.104523 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Influence of rainfall changes from 4.6 to 3.0 ka BP on ceramic pipes
Wang, S., Zhu, X., & Tian, Y. (2024) · Heritage Science · doi:10.1186/s40494-024-01337-8 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Li, B., Ma, J., Chen, H., Guo, M., Li, J., Ren, M., Yan, H., Xiao, Y., & Festa, M. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-79638-y · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Jiang, C., & Lee, H. F. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/add608 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
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Self-citationThe Mongol Conquests of China and Korea and Invasion of Japan
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The Climate and Environment of the Mongol Conquest
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Self-citationCatastrophe’s long reach: How historical natural disasters shape modern entrepreneurship?
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The Way to Know the Chinese Past According to the Climate-Related Records
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Self-citationClimate Change and the Agrarian Economy: The Case of China
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Self-citationA New Approach to an Old Question: A Methodological Basis
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Self-citationHooper, P. L. (2021) · Cliodynamics The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution · doi:10.21237/c7clio12054304 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
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Cain and Abel in the Heaven of Water Cooperation
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Climate Change, Climatic Extremes, and Human Societies in the Past
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¿Qué debería ser un migrante climático para el derecho internacional?
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Mexican Immigration and the Decline of Transnationalism: A 30‐Year Retrospective
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Climate and migration in historical perspective
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Climate change and migration across the Yellow River of China during the Little Ice Age
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- Authors
- Pei, Q., & Zhang, D. D.
- Affiliations
- University of Hong Kong (HK)
- ORCID
- Pei, Qing
- Venue
- Ecology and Society
- Publisher
- Resilience Alliance, Inc.
- Published
- 2014
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 2
- ISSN
- 1708-3087 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2322344339
- Cited by
- 95
- References
- 77
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 5 · 2014: 2
- FWCI
- 10.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Ecology and Society (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Digital Library Of The Commons Repository (Indiana University) (submittedVersion)
- The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Fudan University
- University of Hong Kong
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Environmental Changes in China
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- climate change, nomadic migration, pastoralists, precipitation, temperature, push-pull theory, historical China
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