A tale of two population crises in recent Chinese history
Open accessAbstract
The fall of the Ming dynasty in the first half of the 17th century and the Taiping Rebellion from 1851–1864 were two of the most chaotic periods in Chinese history, and each was accompanied by large-scale population collapses. The ‘ Kang-Qian Golden Age’ (also known as ‘High Qing’), during which population size expanded rapidly, falls in between the two. Scholars remain divided in their opinions concerning the above alternation of population growth and decline as to whether variations in population size or climate change should be identified as the root cause. In either case, the synergistic impact of population growth and climate change upon population growth dynamics is overlooked. In the present study, we utilized high-resolution empirical data, qualitative survey, statistical comparison and time-series analysis to investigate how the two factors worked synergistically to drive population cycles in 1600–1899. To facilitate our research, we posited a set of simplified pathways for population growth in historical agrarian China. Our results confirm that the interrelation between population growth, climate change and population crises in recent Chinese history basically followed our posited pathways. The recurrences of population crises were largely determined by the combination of population growth and climate change. Our results challenge classic Malthusian/post-Malthusian interpretations and historians’ views of historical Chinese population cycles.
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By the end of the Tang, cold weather and desertification had set in, forcing many to retreat.
“By the end of the Tang, cold weather and desertification had set in, forcing many to retreat.92”
From Climate change and Chinese history: a review of trends, topics, and methods (2015) · cites this paper as [92]
Section 2 (Theoretical framework; page unavailable) says the Sung dynasty had a cooler climate than the Tang, making double cropping of rice infeasible in much of Jiangnan. It does not say that cold weather and desertification had set in by the end of the Tang or that they forced people to retreat. (LLM, conf=0.82)
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- Authors
- Lee, H. F., & Zhang, D. D.
- Affiliations
- University of Hong Kong (HK)
- Guizhou Normal University (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Lee, Harry F.
- ORCID
- Lee, Harry F.
- Venue
- Climatic Change
- Published
- 2012-05-12
- Volume
- 116
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 285-308
- ISSN
- 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-1480
- OpenAlex
- W2102069765
- Cited by
- 62
- References
- 78
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 5
- FWCI
- 6.89
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Climatic Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- Northwestern University
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Historical Economic and Social Studies
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- Ming dynasty collapse, Taiping Rebellion, climate change, population growth dynamics, Malthusianism, population cycles
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