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Cited by 1,581Climate Change and Environmental ImpactClimate variability and modelsClimate Change Policy and Economics

IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

Open access
Calvin, Katherine, Dasgupta, Dipak, Krinner, Gerhard, Mukherji, Aditi, Thorne, Peter W., Trisos, Christopher, Romero, José, Aldunce, Paulina +77 more·2023·IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
DOI 10.59327/ipcc/ar6-9789291691647.001
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Abstract

The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Synthesis Report (SYR) of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a component of the SYR which provides a policy-relevant but policy-neutral summary of the SYR. It is consistent with the Sections of the SYR and is approved line by line by the Governments at a plenary session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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Crossref · 10.59327/ipcc/ar6-9789291691647.001

Cites

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Claims the paper makes

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  • Findingcitation

    Global surface temperature was 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20]°C higher in 2011-2020 than 1850-1900.

    “Global surface temperature was 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20]°C 5 higher in 2011-2020 than 1850-1900 6 , with larger increases over land (1.59 [1.34 to 1.83]°C) than over the ocean (0.88 [0.68 to 1.01]°C).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.1, Figure 2.1}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Findingcitation

    In all regions increases in extreme heat events have resulted in human mortality and morbidity (very high confidence).

    “In all regions increases in extreme heat events have resulted in human mortality and morbidity (very high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.2, Figure 2.3}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Findingown data

    Global mean sea level increased by 0.20 [0.15 to 0.25] m between 1901 and 2018.

    “Global mean sea level increased by 0.20 [0.15 to 0.25] m between 1901 and 2018.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.2,Table 2.1, Figure 2.3, Figure 3.4}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Findingnone given

    In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations (410 parts per million) were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years (high confidence).

    “In 2019, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (410 parts per million) were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years (high confidence), and concentrations of methane (1866 parts per billion) and nitrous oxide (332 parts per billion) were higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years (very high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.1, Figure 2.1}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Findingown data

    Emissions reductions in CO2-FFI due to improvements in energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy have been less than emissions increases from rising global activity levels in industry, energy supply, transport, agriculture and buildings (high confidence).

    “Emissions reductions in CO 2 -FFI due to improvements in energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy, have been less than emissions increases from rising global activity levels in industry, energy supply, transport, agriculture and buildings.(high confidence) {2.1.1}”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.1}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims. 75
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 5

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The average rate of sea level rise was 1.3 [0.6 to 2.1] mm yr-1 between 1901 and 1971, increasing to 1.9 [0.8 to 2.9] mm yr-1 between 1971 and 2006, and further increasing to 3.7 [3.2 to 4.2] mm yr-1 between 2006 and 2018 (high confidence).

    “The average rate of sea level rise was 1.3 [0.6 to 2.1] mm yr -1 between 1901 and 1971, increasing to 1.9 [0.8 to 2.9] mm yr -1 between 1971 and 2006, and further increasing to 3.7 [3.2 to 4.2] mm yr -1 between 2006 and 2018 (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.2,Table 2.1, Figure 2.3, Figure 3.4}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Historical cumulative net CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2019 were 2400 ± 240 GtCO2, of which more than half (58%) occurred between 1850 and 1989, and about 42% occurred between 1990 and 2019 (high confidence).

    “Historical cumulative net CO 2 emissions from 1850 to 2019 were 2400 ± 240 GtCO 2 of which more than half (58%) occurred between 1850 and 1989, and about 42% occurred between 1990 and 2019 (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.1, Figure 2.1}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The 10% of households with the highest per capita emissions contribute 34-45% of global consumption-based household GHG emissions, while the bottom 50% contribute 13-15% (high confidence).

    “The 10% of households with the highest per capita emissions contribute 34-45% of global consumption-based household GHG emissions, while the bottom 50% contribute 13-15%.(high confidence) {2.1.1,Figure 2.2}”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.1,Figure 2.2}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The negative impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity have been mainly in mid- and low latitude regions but positive impacts in some high latitude regions (high confidence).

    “Although overall agricultural productivity has increased, climate change has slowed this growth over the past 50 years globally (medium confidence), with related negative impacts mainly in midand low latitude regions but positive impacts in some high latitude regions (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.2,

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Human influence has likely increased the chance of compound extreme events since the 1950s, including increases in the frequency of concurrent heatwaves and droughts (high confidence).

    “Human influence has likely increased the chance of compound extreme events since the 1950s, including increases in the frequency of concurrent heatwaves and droughts (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.2,Table 2.1, Figure 2.3, Figure 3.4}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Historical contributions of CO2 emissions vary substantially across regions in terms of total magnitude, and in terms of contributions to CO2-FFI and net CO2 emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry (CO2-LULUCF).

    “Historical contributions of CO 2 emissions vary substantially across regions in terms of total magnitude, but also in terms of contributions to CO 2 -FFI and net CO 2 emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry (CO 2 -LULUCF).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.1,Figure 2.2}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    In 2019, approximately 79% of global GHG emissions came from the sectors of energy, industry, transport, and buildings together and 22% from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU).

    “In 2019, approximately 79% of global GHG 5 Ranges given throughout the SPM represent very likely ranges (5-95% range) unless otherwise stated.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.1}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    In 2019, around 35% of the global population lived in countries emitting more than 9 tCO2-eq per capita (excluding CO2-LULUCF) while 41% lived in countries emitting less than 3 tCO2-eq per capita; of the latter a substantial share lacks access to modern energy services.

    “In 2019, around 35% of the global population live in countries emitting more than 9 tCO 2 -eq per capita 11 (excluding CO 2 -LULUCF) while 41% live in countries emitting less than 3 tCO 2 -eq per capita; of the latter a substantial share lacks access to modern energy services.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.1,Figure 2.2}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Climate change has reduced food security and affected water security, hindering efforts to meet Sustainable Development Goals (high confidence).

    “Climate change has reduced food security and affected water security, hindering efforts to meet Sustainable Development Goals (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.2,

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Increasing weather and climate extreme events have exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity and reduced water security, with the largest adverse impacts observed in many locations and/or communities in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, LDCs, Small Islands and the Arctic, and globally for Indigenous Peoples, small-scale food producers and low-income households.

    “Increasing weather and climate extreme events have exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity 12 and reduced water security, with the largest adverse impacts observed in many locations and/or communities in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, LDCs, Small Islands and the Arctic, and globally for Indigenous Peoples, small-scale food producers and low-income households.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.2,4.4}

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  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Although global tracked climate finance has shown an upward trend since AR5, current global financial flows for adaptation, including from public and private finance sources, are insufficient and constrain implementation of adaptation options, especially in developing countries (high confidence).

    “Although global tracked climate finance has shown an upward trend since AR5, current global financial flows for adaptation, including from public and private finance sources, are insufficient and constrain implementation of adaptation options, especially in developing countries (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.3.2, 2.3.3}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Climate and weather extremes are increasingly driving displacement in Africa, Asia, North America (high confidence), and Central and South America (medium confidence), with small island states in the Caribbean and South Pacific being disproportionately affected relative to their small population size (high confidence).

    “Climate and weather extremes are increasingly driving displacement in Africa, Asia, North America (high confidence), and Central and South America (medium confidence), with small island states in the Caribbean and South Pacific being disproportionately affected relative to their small population size (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.2, Figure 2.3}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    High and very high GHG emissions scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) have CO2 emissions that roughly double from current levels by 2100 and 2050, respectively.

    “High and very high GHG emissions scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 22 ) have CO 2 emissions that roughly double from current levels by 2100 and 2050, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {Cross-Section Box.2}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Despite progress, adaptation gaps exist across sectors and regions, and will continue to grow under current levels of implementation, with the largest adaptation gaps among lower income groups (high confidence).

    “Despite progress, adaptation gaps exist across sectors and regions, and will continue to grow under current levels of implementation, with the largest adaptation gaps among lower income groups.(high confidence) {2.3.2}”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.3.2}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Most observed adaptation responses are fragmented, incremental, sector-specific and unequally distributed across regions.

    “Most observed adaptation responses are fragmented, incremental 18 , sector-specific and unequally distributed across regions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.3.2}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    There are gaps between projected emissions from implemented policies and those from NDCs and finance flows fall short of the levels needed to meet climate goals across all sectors and regions (high confidence).

    “There are gaps between projected emissions from implemented policies and those from NDCs and finance flows fall short of the levels needed to meet climate goals across all sectors and regions.(high confidence) {2.2, 2.3, Figure 2.5, Table 2.2}”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.2, 2.3, Figure 2.5, Table 2.2}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    In assessed regions, some mental health challenges are associated with increasing temperatures (high confidence), trauma from extreme events (very high confidence), and loss of livelihoods and culture (high confidence).

    “In assessed regions, some mental health challenges are associated with increasing temperatures (high confidence), trauma from extreme events (very high confidence), and loss of livelihoods and culture (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.2, Figure 2.3}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Urban infrastructure, including transportation, water, sanitation and energy systems have been compromised by extreme and slow-onset events, with resulting economic losses, disruptions of services and negative impacts to well-being.

    “Urban infrastructure, including transportation, water, sanitation and energy systems have been compromised by extreme and slow-onset events 14 , with resulting economic losses, disruptions of services and negative impacts to well-being.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.2}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The very low and low GHG emissions scenarios (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6) have CO2 emissions declining to net zero around 2050 and 2070, respectively, followed by varying levels of net negative CO2 emissions.

    “The very low and low GHG emissions scenarios (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6)have CO 2 emissions declining to net zero around 2050 and 2070, respectively, followed by varying levels of net negative CO 2 emissions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {Cross-Section Box.2}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Global GHG emissions in 2030 implied by nationally determined contributions (NDCs) announced by October 2021 make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century and make it harder to limit warming below 2°C.

    “Global GHG emissions in 2030 implied by nationally determined contributions (NDCs) announced by October 2021 make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century and make it harder to limit warming below 2°C.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.2, 2.3, Figure 2.5, Table 2.2}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and water-borne diseases (very high confidence) and the incidence of vector-borne diseases (high confidence) have increased.

    “The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and water-borne diseases (very high confidence) and the incidence of vector-borne diseases (high confidence) have increased.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.2, Figure 2.3}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Individual livelihoods have been affected through destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income, human health and food security, with adverse effects on gender and social equity (high confidence).

    “Individual livelihoods have been affected through, for example, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income, human health and food security, with adverse effects on gender and social equity.(high confidence) {2.1.2}”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.1.2}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Adaptation planning and implementation has progressed across all sectors and regions, with documented benefits and varying effectiveness.

    “Adaptation planning and implementation has progressed across all sectors and regions, with documented benefits and varying effectiveness.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.2, 2.3}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Examples of effective adaptation options include cultivar improvements, on-farm water management and storage, soil moisture conservation, irrigation, agroforestry, community-based adaptation, farm and landscape level diversification in agriculture, sustainable land management approaches, use of agroecological principles and practices and other approaches that work with natural processes (high

    “Examples of effective adaptation options include: cultivar improvements, on-farm water management and storage, soil moisture conservation, irrigation, agroforestry, community-based adaptation, farm and landscape level diversification in agriculture, sustainable land management approaches, use of agroecological principles and practices and other approaches that work with natural processes (high”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.2.3}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Key barriers to adaptation are limited resources, lack of private sector and citizen engagement, insufficient mobilization of finance (including for research), low climate literacy, lack of political commitment, limited research and/or slow and low uptake of adaptation science, and low sense of urgency.

    “Key barriers to adaptation are limited resources, lack of private sector and citizen engagement, insufficient mobilization of finance (including for research), low climate literacy, lack of political commitment, limited research and/or slow and low uptake of adaptation science, and low sense of urgency.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.3.2, 2.3.3}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In WGIII, a large number of global modelled emissions pathways were assessed, of which 1202 pathways were categorised based on their assessed global warming over the 21st century; categories range from pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C with more than 50% likelihood with no or limited overshoot (C1) to pathways that exceed 4°C (C8).

    “In WGIII, a large number of global modelled emissions pathways were assessed, of which 1202 pathways were categorised based on their assessed global warming over the 21st century; categories range from pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C with more than 50% likelihood (noted >50% in this report) with no or limited overshoot (C1) to pathways that exceed 4°C (C8).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {Cross-Section Box.2}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Despite progress, adaptation gaps exist, and will continue to grow at current rates of implementation.

    “Despite progress, adaptation gaps exist, and will continue to grow at current rates of implementation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.2, 2.3}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Adaptation finance has come predominantly from public sources, and a small proportion of global tracked climate finance was targeted to adaptation and an overwhelming majority to mitigation (very high confidence).

    “Adaptation finance has come predominantly from public sources, and a small proportion of global tracked climate finance was targeted to adaptation and an overwhelming majority to mitigation (very high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.3.2, 2.3.3}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Many countries have signalled an intention to achieve net zero GHG or net zero CO2 by around mid-century but pledges differ across countries in terms of scope and specificity, and limited policies are to date in place to deliver on them.

    “Many countries have signalled an intention to achieve net zero GHG or net zero CO 2 by around mid-century but pledges differ across countries in terms of scope and specificity, and limited policies are to date in place to deliver on them.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.3.1, Table 2.2, Figure 2.5, Table 3.1, 4.1}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The Paris Agreement, adopted under the UNFCCC, with near universal participation, has led to policy development and target-setting at national and sub-national levels, in particular in relation to mitigation, as well as enhanced transparency of climate action and support (medium confidence).

    “The Paris Agreement, adopted under the UNFCCC, with near universal participation, has led to policy development and target-setting at national and sub-national levels, in particular in relation to mitigation, as well as enhanced transparency of climate action and support (medium confidence).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.2.1, 2.2.2}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Several mitigation options, notably solar energy, wind energy, electrification of urban systems, urban green infrastructure, energy efficiency, demand-side management, improved forest and crop/grassland management, and reduced food waste and loss, are technically viable, are becoming increasingly cost effective and are generally supported by the public.

    “Several mitigation options, notably solar energy, wind energy, electrification of urban systems, urban green infrastructure, energy efficiency, demand-side management, improved forest and crop/grassland management, and reduced food waste and loss, are technically viable, are becoming increasingly cost effective and are generally supported by the”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.2, Figure 2.4}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Targeted reductions of air pollutant emissions lead to more rapid improvements in air quality within years compared to reductions in GHG emissions only, but in the long term, further improvements are projected in scenarios that combine efforts to reduce air pollutants as well as GHG emissions (high confidence).

    “Targeted reductions of air pollutant emissions lead to more rapid improvements in air quality within years compared to reductions in GHG emissions only, but in the long term, further improvements are projected in scenarios that combine efforts to reduce air pollutants as well as GHG emissions 33 .(high confidence) {3.1.1}”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {3.1.1}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    From 2010 to 2019 there have been sustained decreases in the unit costs of solar energy (85%), wind energy (55%), and lithium-ion batteries (85%), and large increases in their deployment, e.g., >10× for solar and >100× for electric vehicles (EVs), varying widely across regions.

    “From 2010 to 2019 there have been sustained decreases in the unit costs of solar energy (85%), wind energy (55%), and lithium-ion batteries (85%), and large increases in their deployment, e.g., >10× for solar and >100× for electric vehicles (EVs), varying widely across regions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.2, Figure 2.4}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The overwhelming majority of tracked climate finance is directed towards mitigation, but nevertheless falls short of the levels needed to limit warming to below 2°C or to 1.5°C across all sectors and regions (very high confidence).

    “The overwhelming majority of tracked climate finance is directed towards mitigation, but nevertheless falls short of the levels needed to limit warming to below 2°C or to 1.5°C across all sectors and regions (see C7.2) (very high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.2.2, 2.3.1, 2.3.3}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the near term, global warming is more likely than not to reach 1.5°C even under the very low GHG emission scenario (SSP1-1.9) and likely or very likely to exceed 1.5°C under higher emissions scenarios.

    “In the near term, global warming is more likely than not to reach 1.5°C even under the very low GHG emission scenario (SSP1-1.9)and likely or very likely to exceed 1.5°C under higher emissions scenarios.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {Cross-Section Boxes 1 and 2, 3.1.1,3.3.4,Table 3.1, 4.3}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The magnitude of climate finance flows has increased over the last decade and financing channels have broadened but growth has slowed since 2018 (high confidence).

    “The magnitude of climate finance flows has increased over the last decade and financing channels have broadened but growth has slowed since 2018 (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {2.2.2, 2.3.1, 2.3.3}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Under contrasting scenarios, discernible effects would emerge within years for GHG concentrations, and sooner for air quality improvements, due to the combined targeted air pollution controls and strong and sustained methane emissions reductions.

    “Under these contrasting scenarios, discernible effects would emerge within years for GHG concentrations, and sooner for air quality improvements, due to the combined targeted air pollution controls and strong and sustained methane emissions reductions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites {3.1.1}

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    In contrast to the oil and gas sector, CCS is less mature in the power sector, as well as in cement and chemicals production, where it is a critical mitigation option.

    “In contrast to the oil and gas sector, CCS is less mature in the power sector, as well as in cement and chemicals production, where it is a critical mitigation option.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The best estimates of the remaining carbon budgets from the beginning of 2020 are 500 GtCO2 for a 50% likelihood of limiting global warming to 1.5°C and 1150 GtCO2 for a 67% likelihood of limiting warming to 2°C.

    “The best estimates of the remaining carbon budgets from the beginning of 2020 are 500 GtCO 2 for a 50% likelihood of limiting global warming to 1.5°C and 1150 GtCO 2 for a 67% likelihood of limiting warming to 2°C 40 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    As warming levels increase, so do the risks of species extinction or irreversible loss of biodiversity in ecosystems including forests (medium confidence), coral reefs (very high confidence) and in Arctic regions (high confidence).

    “As warming levels increase, so do the risks of species extinction or irreversible loss of biodiversity in ecosystems including forests (medium confidence), coral reefs (very high confidence) and in Arctic regions (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Near-term hazards include food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases (high confidence).

    “food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases (high confidence)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The technical geological storage capacity is estimated to be on the order of 1000 GtCO2, which is more than the CO2 storage requirements through 2100 to limit global warming to 1.5°C, although the regional availability of geological storage could be a limiting factor.

    “The technical geological storage capacity is estimated to be on the order of 1000 GtCO 2 , which is more than the CO 2 storage requirements through 2100 to limit global warming to 1.5°C, although the regional availability of geological storage could be a limiting factor.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Increases in aridity and fire weather are projected (medium to high confidence).

    “and increases in aridity and fire weather (medium to high confidence)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Over the next 2000 years, global mean sea level will rise by about 2-3 m if warming is limited to 1.5°C and 2-6 m if limited to 2°C (low confidence).

    “Over the next 2000 years, global mean sea level will rise by about 2-3 m if warming is limited to 1.5°C and 2-6 m if limited to 2°C (low confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Relative to 1995-2014, the likely global mean sea level rise under SSP1-1.9 is 0.15-0.23 m by 2050 and 0.28-0.55 m by 2100; under SSP5-8.5 it is 0.20-0.29 m by 2050 and 0.63-1.01 m by 2100 (medium confidence).

    “Relative to 1995-2014, the likely global mean sea level rise under the SSP1-1.9GHG emissions scenario is 0.15-0.23 m by 2050 and 0.28-0.55m by 2100; while for the SSP5-8.5 GHG emissions scenario it is 0.20-0.29 m by 2050 and 0.63-1.01m by 2100 (medium confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Projections of annual mean soil moisture largely follow projections in annual mean precipitation but also show some differences due to the influence of evapotranspiration.

    “Projections of annual mean soil moisture largely follow projections in annual mean precipitation but also show some differences due to the influence of evapotranspiration.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Future climate change is projected to increase the severity of impacts across natural and human systems and will increase regional differences.

    “Future climate change is projected to increase the severity of impacts across natural and human systems and will increase regional differences”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    If annual CO2 emissions between 2020-2030 stayed, on average, at the same level as 2019, the resulting cumulative emissions would almost exhaust the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C (50%), and deplete more than a third of the remaining carbon budget for 2°C (67%).

    “If the annual CO 2 emissions between 2020-2030 stayed, on average, at the same level as 2019, the resulting cumulative emissions would almost exhaust the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C (50%), and deplete more than a third of the remaining carbon budget for 2°C (67%).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Where implemented, carbon pricing instruments have incentivized low-cost emissions reduction measures but have been less effective, on their own and at prevailing prices during the assessment period, to promote higher-cost measures necessary for further reductions.

    “Where implemented, carbon pricing instruments have incentivized low-cost emissions reduction measures but have been less effective, on their own and at prevailing prices during the assessment period, to promote higher-cost measures necessary for further reductions (medium confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Individuals with high socio-economic status contribute disproportionately to emissions, and have the highest potential for emissions reductions.

    “Individuals with high socio-economic status contribute disproportionately to emissions, and have the highest potential for emissions reductions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Global net zero CO2 emissions are reached for pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot and those that limit warming to 2°C (>67%) in the early 2050s and around the early 2070s, respectively.

    “Global net zero CO 2 emissions are reached for these pathway categories, in the early 2050s and around the early 2070s, respectively.(high confidence)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Past conditions (emissions, climate change, development) have increased warming and development gaps persist.

    “Past conditions (emissions, climate change, development) have increased warming and development gaps persist”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Demand-side measures and new ways of end-use service provision can reduce global GHG emissions in end-use sectors (buildings, land transport, food) by 40-70% by 2050 compared to baseline scenarios, while some regions and socioeconomic groups require additional energy and resources.

    “Demand-side measures and new ways of end-use service provision can reduce global GHG emissions in end-use sectors (buildings, land transport, food) by 40-70% by 2050 compared to baseline scenarios, while some regions and socioeconomic groups require additional energy and resources.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Based on central estimates only, historical cumulative net CO2 emissions between 1850 and 2019 amount to about four fifths of the total carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C (central estimate about 2900 GtCO2), and to about two thirds of the total carbon budget for a 67% probability to limit global warming to 2°C (central estimate about 3550 GtCO2).

    “Based on central estimates only, historical cumulative net CO 2 emissions between 1850 and 2019 amount to about four fifths 45 of the total carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C (central estimate about 2900 GtCO 2 ), and to about two thirds 46 of the total carbon budget for a 67% probability to limit global warming to 2°C (central estimate about 3550 GtCO 2 ).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Strong, rapid and sustained reductions in methane emissions can limit near-term warming and improve air quality by reducing global surface ozone.

    “Strong, rapid and sustained reductions in methane emissions can limit near-term warming and improve air quality by reducing global surface ozone (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Maladaptive responses can worsen existing inequities especially for Indigenous Peoples and marginalised groups and decrease ecosystem and biodiversity resilience.

    “Maladaptive responses can worsen existing inequities especially for Indigenous Peoples and marginalised groups and decrease ecosystem and biodiversity resilience.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The stronger the reductions in non-CO2 emissions, the lower the resulting temperatures are for a given remaining carbon budget or the larger remaining carbon budget for the same level of temperature change.

    “The stronger the reductions in non-CO 2 emissions, the lower the resulting temperatures are for a given remaining carbon budget or the larger remaining carbon budget for the same level of temperature change 41 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    With increasing global warming, losses and damages will increase and additional human and natural systems will reach adaptation limits.

    “With increasing global warming, losses and damages will increase and additional human and natural systems will reach adaptation limits.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Seawalls effectively reduce impacts to people and assets in the short term but can also result in lock-ins and increase exposure to climate risks in the long term unless they are integrated into a long-term adaptive plan.

    “For example, seawalls effectively reduce impacts to people and assets in the short term but can also result in lock-ins and increase exposure to climate risks in the long term unless they are integrated into a long-term adaptive plan.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Reaching net zero GHG emissions primarily requires deep reductions in CO2, methane, and other GHG emissions, and implies net negative CO2 emissions.

    “Reaching net zero GHG emissions primarily requires deep reductions in CO 2 , methane, and other GHG emissions, and implies net negative CO 2 emissions 39 .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    From a physical science perspective, limiting human-caused global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, reaching at least net zero CO2 emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions.

    “From a physical science perspective, limiting human-caused global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative CO 2 emissions, reaching at least net zero CO 2 emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation were to collapse, it would very likely cause abrupt shifts in regional weather patterns, and large impacts on ecosystems and human activities.

    “but if it were to occur, it would very likely cause abrupt shifts in regional weather patterns, and large impacts on ecosystems and human activities.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    When CO2 is captured directly from the atmosphere (DACCS), or from biomass (BECCS), CCS provides the storage component of these CDR methods.

    “When CO 2 is captured directly from the atmosphere (DACCS), or from biomass (BECCS), CCS provides the storage component of these CDR methods.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Some future changes are unavoidable and/or irreversible but can be limited by deep, rapid, and sustained global greenhouse gas emissions reduction.

    “Some future changes are unavoidable and/or irreversible but can be limited by deep, rapid, and sustained global greenhouse gas emissions reduction.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Above 1.5°C, ecosystems such as some warm-water coral reefs, coastal wetlands, rainforests, and polar and mountain ecosystems will have reached or surpassed hard adaptation limits and as a consequence, some Ecosystem-based Adaptation measures will also lose their effectiveness (high confidence).

    “Above that level, ecosystems such as some warm-water coral reefs, coastal wetlands, rainforests, and polar and mountain ecosystems will have reached or surpassed hard adaptation limits and as a consequence, some Ecosystem-based Adaptation measures will also lose their effectiveness (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Climate resilient development is enabled when governments, civil society and the private sector make inclusive development choices that prioritize risk reduction, equity and justice, and when decision-making processes, finance and actions are integrated across governance levels, sectors, and timeframes (very high confidence).

    “Climate resilient development is enabled when governments, civil society and the private sector make inclusive development choices that prioritize risk reduction, equity and justice, and when decision-making processes, finance and actions are integrated across governance levels, sectors, and timeframes (very high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Net zero CO2 energy systems entail a substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, minimal use of unabated fossil fuels, and use of carbon capture and storage in the remaining fossil fuel systems; electricity systems that emit no net CO2; widespread electrification; alternative energy carriers in applications less amenable to electrification; energy conservation and efficiency; and greater集成?

    “Net zero CO 2 energy systems entail: a substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, minimal use of unabated fossil fuels 51 , and use of carbon capture and storage in the remaining fossil fuel systems; electricity systems that emit no net CO 2 ; widespread electrification; alternative energy carriers in applications less amenable to electrification; energy conservation and efficiency; and gre”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    This would require additional deployment of carbon dioxide removal, compared to pathways without overshoot, leading to greater feasibility and sustainability concerns.

    “This would require additional deployment of carbon dioxide removal, compared to pathways without overshoot, leading to greater feasibility and sustainability concerns.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Prospects for climate resilient development will be further limited if global warming exceeds 1.5°C and if progress towards the SDGs is inadequate.

    “Prospects for climate resilient development will be further limited if global warming exceeds 1.5°C and if progress towards the SDGs is inadequate”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The uncertainty in the total potential is typically 25-50%.

    “The uncertainty in the total potential is typically 25-50%.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Climate resilient development integrates adaptation and mitigation to advance sustainable development for all, and is enabled by increased international cooperation including improved access to adequate financial resources, particularly for vulnerable regions, sectors and groups, and inclusive governance and coordinated policies (high confidence).

    “Climate resilient development integrates adaptation and mitigation to advance sustainable development for all, and is enabled by increased international cooperation including improved access to adequate financial resources, particularly for vulnerable regions, sectors and groups, and inclusive governance and coordinated policies (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Limiting global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C would increase the costs of mitigation, but also increase the benefits in terms of reduced impacts and related risks, and reduced adaptation needs.

    “Limiting global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C would increase the costs of mitigation, but also increase the benefits in terms of reduced impacts and related risks, and reduced adaptation needs (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Without rapid, deep and sustained mitigation and accelerated adaptation actions, losses and damages will continue to increase, including projected adverse impacts in Africa, LDCs, SIDS, Central and South America, Asia and the Arctic, and will disproportionately affect the most vulnerable populations.

    “Without rapid, deep and sustained mitigation and accelerated adaptation actions, losses and damages will continue to increase, including projected adverse impacts in Africa, LDCs, SIDS, Central and South America 49 , Asia and the Arctic, and will disproportionately affect the most vulnerable populations.(high confidence)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    If climate goals are to be achieved, both adaptation and mitigation financing would need to increase many-fold.

    “If climate goals are to be achieved, both adaptation and mitigation financing would need to increase many-fold.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationnone given

    Early action and enabling conditions create future opportunities for climate resilient development.

    “Early action and enabling conditions create future opportunities for climate resilient development”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Delayed mitigation and adaptation action would lock in high-emissions infrastructure, raise risks of stranded assets and cost-escalation, reduce feasibility, and increase losses and damages (high confidence).

    “Delayed mitigation and adaptation action would lock in high-emissions infrastructure, raise risks of stranded assets and cost-escalation, reduce feasibility, and increase losses and damages (high confidence).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Overshoot entails adverse impacts, some irreversible, and additional risks for human and natural systems, all growing with the magnitude and duration of overshoot (high confidence).

    “Overshoot entails adverse impacts, some irreversible, and additional risks for human and natural systems, all growing with the magnitude and duration of overshoot.(high confidence)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Delayed mitigation action will further increase global warming, losses and damages will rise, and additional human and natural systems will reach adaptation limits.

    “Delayed mitigation action will further increase global warming and losses and damages will rise and additional human and natural systems will reach adaptation limits.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
78 of 78

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Modelled scenarios and pathways are based on a range of assumptions, including socio-economic variables and mitigation options.

    “Modelled scenarios and pathways 19 are used to explore future emissions, climate change, related impacts and risks, and possible mitigation and adaptation strategies and are based on a range of assumptions, including socio-economic variables and mitigation options.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Models assume that irrigated areas are not water-limited.

    “Models assume that irrigated areas are not water-limited.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Species are assumed not to relocate.

    “assuming no species relocation.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Maximum potential response assumes minimal financial, social and political barriers.

    “assuming minimal financial, social and political barriers.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Estimates of mitigation investment requirements rely on scenario assumptions.

    “These estimates rely on scenario assumptions.”
5 of 5

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2023 climate models predict a mean global increase between 1.4 and 4.4 °C by 2100 with a disproportionate effect in the Arctic.

    “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2023 climate models predict a mean global increase between 1.4 and 4.4 °C by 210035 with a disproportionate effect in the Arctic.”

    From Chromosomal-level reference genome assembly of muskox (Ovibos moschatus) from Banks Island in the Canadian Arctic, a resource for conservation genomics (2024) · cites this paper as [35]

    Section B.1.1 (under 2.2, Figure 2.4; page unavailable) gives best estimates of 1.4°C and 4.4°C for global warming in 2081–2100 under the very-low and very-high emissions scenarios, respectively. These are scenario-specific estimates, not the bounds of a single prediction. The passages found do not establish that projected warming is disproportionately greater in the Arctic. (LLM, conf=0.86)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Calvin, K., Dasgupta, D., Krinner, G., Mukherji, A., Thorne, P. W., Trisos, C., Romero, J., Aldunce, P., Barret, K., Blanco, G., Cheung, W. W. L., Connors, S. L., Denton, F., Diongue-Niang, A., Dodman, D., Garschagen, M., Geden, O., Hayward, B., Jones, C., Jotzo, F., Krug, T., Lasco, R., Lee, Y.-Y., Masson-Delmotte, V., Meinshausen, M., Mintenbeck, K., Mokssit, A., Otto, F. E. L., Pathak, M., Pirani, A., Poloczanska, E., Pörtner, H.-O., Revi, A., Roberts, D. C., Roy, J., Ruane, A. C., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R., Slade, R., Slangen, A., Sokona, Y., Sörensson, A. A., Tignor, M., van Vuuren, D., Wei, Y.-M., Winkler, H., Zhai, P., Zommers, Z., Hourcade, J.-C., Johnson, F. X., Pachauri, S., Simpson, N. P., Singh, C., Thomas, A., Totin, E., Alegría, A., Armour, K., Bednar-Friedl, B., Blok, K., Cissé, G., Dentener, F., Eriksen, S., Fischer, E., Garner, G., Guivarch, C., Haasnoot, M., Hansen, G., Hauser, M., Hawkins, E., Hermans, T., Kopp, R., Leprince-Ringuet, N., Lewis, J., Ley, D., Ludden, C., Niamir, L., Nicholls, Z., Some, S., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., van der Wijst, K.-I., Winter, G., Witting, M., Birt, A., & Ha, M.
ORCID
Venue
IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
Publisher
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Published
2023-07-25
Pages
1-34
DOI
10.59327/ipcc/ar6-9789291691647.001
OpenAlex
W4385123314
Cited by
1,581
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 486 · 2025: 617 · 2024: 396 · 2023: 78 · 2018: 1
Type
report
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Maynooth University ePrints and eTheses Archive (Maynooth University) (acceptedVersion)
  • IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Keywords
climate change, climate change impacts, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, climate change projections, climate policy, global warming

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-11.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-11.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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