Cited by 318ECG Monitoring and AnalysisPotassium and Related DisordersMachine Learning in Healthcare

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 37 of the 37 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 26 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.

Development and Validation of a Deep-Learning Model to Screen for Hyperkalemia From the Electrocardiogram

Open access

Abstract

Importance: For patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), hyperkalemia is common, associated with fatal arrhythmias, and often asymptomatic, while guideline-directed monitoring of serum potassium is underused. A deep-learning model that enables noninvasive hyperkalemia screening from the electrocardiogram (ECG) may improve detection of this life-threatening condition. Objective: To evaluate the performance of a deep-learning model in detection of hyperkalemia from the ECG in patients with CKD. Design, Setting, and Participants: A deep convolutional neural network (DNN) was trained using 1 576 581 ECGs from 449 380 patients seen at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, from 1994 to 2017. The DNN was trained using 2 (leads I and II) or 4 (leads I, II, V3, and V5) ECG leads to detect serum potassium levels of 5.5 mEq/L or less (to convert to millimoles per liter, multiply by 1) and was validated using retrospective data from the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota, Florida, and Arizona. The validation included 61 965 patients with stage 3 or greater CKD. Each patient had a serum potassium count drawn within 4 hours after their ECG was recorded. Data were analyzed between April 12, 2018, and June 25, 2018. Exposures: Use of a deep-learning model. Main Outcomes and Measures: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and sensitivity and specificity, with serum potassium level as the reference standard. The model was evaluated at 2 operating points, 1 for equal specificity and sensitivity and another for high (90%) sensitivity. Results: Of the total 1 638 546 ECGs, 908 000 (55%) were from men. The prevalence of hyperkalemia in the 3 validation data sets ranged from 2.6% (n = 1282 of 50 099; Minnesota) to 4.8% (n = 287 of 6011; Florida). Using ECG leads I and II, the AUC of the deep-learning model was 0.883 (95% CI, 0.873-0.893) for Minnesota, 0.860 (95% CI, 0.837-0.883) for Florida, and 0.853 (95% CI, 0.830-0.877) for Arizona. Using a 90% sensitivity operating point, the sensitivity was 90.2% (95% CI, 88.4%-91.7%) and specificity was 63.2% (95% CI, 62.7%-63.6%) for Minnesota; the sensitivity was 91.3% (95% CI, 87.4%-94.3%) and specificity was 54.7% (95% CI, 53.4%-56.0%) for Florida; and the sensitivity was 88.9% (95% CI, 84.5%-92.4%) and specificity was 55.0% (95% CI, 53.7%-56.3%) for Arizona. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, using only 2 ECG leads, a deep-learning model detected hyperkalemia in patients with renal disease with an AUC of 0.853 to 0.883. The application of artificial intelligence to the ECG may enable screening for hyperkalemia. Prospective studies are warranted.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

A deep-learning model using 2 or 4 ECG leads detected hyperkalemia in patients with chronic kidney disease, with 2-lead AUCs of 0.853 to 0.883 across three Mayo Clinic validation sets. At a 90% sensitivity operating point, specificity was 54.7% to 63.2% and negative predictive value was 99.0% to 99.6%.

Key findings

  • For 2-lead ECG (leads I and II), the model achieved AUCs of 0.883 (95% CI, 0.873-0.893) in Minnesota, 0.860 (95% CI, 0.837-0.883) in Florida, and 0.853 (95% CI, 0.830-0.877) in Arizona; 4-lead AUCs were 0.880 to 0.901.
  • At the high-sensitivity operating point, 2-lead sensitivity/specificity were 90.2%/63.2% in Minnesota, 91.3%/54.7% in Florida, and 88.9%/55.0% in Arizona, corresponding to negative predictive values of 99.0% to 99.6%.
  • At the equal sensitivity/specificity operating point, 2-lead sensitivity/specificity were 79.9%/81.3% in Minnesota, 80.5%/75.2% in Florida, and 78.1%/75.3% in Arizona, with negative predictive values of 98.6% to 99.4%.
  • False-positive results reached up to 42% at the high-sensitivity point, while false-negative results were less than 1% of all test results; among 58 false-negative patients reviewed, median blood potassium was 5.9 mEq/L and 52% had a subsequent potassium measurement below 5.5 mEq/L within 8 hours.

Methods

  • Retrospective study using a deep convolutional neural network with 11 layers (10 convolutional plus a fully connected softmax layer), trained on 1,576,581 ECGs from 449,380 patients at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, from 1994 to 2017.
  • The model was trained with 2 leads (I and II) or 4 leads (I, II, V3, and V5) to detect serum potassium ≥5.5 mEq/L and validated on 61,965 ECG-potassium pairs from patients with stage 3 or greater CKD across Mayo Clinic sites in Minnesota, Florida, and Arizona; serum potassium was drawn within 4 hours after the ECG.
  • Performance was assessed by AUC and by sensitivity and specificity at two operating points—equal sensitivity and specificity, and 90% sensitivity—with serum potassium as the reference standard; validation focused on ECGs with potassium ≤5.3 mEq/L or ≥5.7 mEq/L.

Limitations

  • The paper states that data were retrospective and lacked clinical data such as medication use and medical history; the model was developed and validated using 12-lead ECG data in clinic/hospital settings, so prospective testing is needed for home or ambulatory ECG inputs and to determine whether it improves detection, care, and outcomes.
  • The paper states that the DLM does not analyze renal function, that false-negative results may cause false reassurance, and that low specificity with up to 42% false-positive results may cause anxiety and inconvenience, with risk increasing over repeated testing; it also notes insufficient repeated measures to develop a personalized model.
  • Evident from the text: validation excluded ECGs with potassium levels between 5.3 and 5.7 mEq/L to avoid misclassification near the threshold, and a sensitivity analysis including all potassium values decreased AUC by 0.02 to 0.04, suggesting performance may be lower in an unselected screening population.

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Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1001/jamacardio.2019.0640

Cites

37 of 37 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

34 Own result · 17 Sources not found · 15 Own interpretation · 8 Own method · 4 No basis given

Show all 48 claims

  • Probably not a substantial claim. 20
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 16
30 of 30
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The serum potassium level measured within 4 hours after the ECG reflects the potassium level at the time of the ECG.

    “All ECGs within 4 hours before a serum potassium draw were identified.16”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The Gaussian process used to estimate potassium level at the time of ECG in the development data set accurately estimates the true potassium level.

    “Gaussian process to estimate potassium level at time of ECG”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Hyperkalemia is often present in the setting of acute CKD.

    “Hyperkalemia is often present in the setting of acute CKD.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    ECG-based tests are not susceptible to mechanical, temperature, contamination, or other potential errors associated with processing blood.

    “The ECGbased tests are not susceptible to mechanical, temperature, contamination, or the other potential errors associated with processing blood.”
4 of 4

Claims other papers make about this one

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6 of 6

Citations

Cites

Show all 37 references

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. Erhan, 2009, Visualizing Higher-Layer Features of a Deep Network: Technical Report 1341

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Metadata

Authors
Galloway, C. D., Valys, A. V., Shreibati, J. B., Treiman, D. L., Petterson, F. L., Gundotra, V. P., Albert, D. E., Attia, Z. I., Carter, R. E., Asirvatham, S. J., Ackerman, M. J., Noseworthy, P. A., Dillon, J. J., & Friedman, P. A.
Affiliations
  • AliveCor Inc, Mountain View, California
  • Mayo Clinic (US)
Corresponding author
Friedman, Paul A.
Venue
JAMA Cardiology
Published
2019-05-01
Volume
4
Issue
5
Pages
428
ISSN
2380-6583 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2928542791
Cited by
318
References
37
Citations by year
2026: 23 · 2025: 45 · 2024: 53 · 2023: 53 · 2022: 54 · 2021: 45 · 2020: 34 · 2019: 10
FWCI
23.27
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • JAMA Cardiology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (submittedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › ECG Monitoring and Analysis
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Nephrology › Potassium and Related Disorders
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
Keywords
hyperkalemia, electrocardiogram, deep convolutional neural networks, chronic kidney disease, serum potassium, non-invasive screening, arrhythmia risk, model validation, sensitivity and specificity, clinical decision support, arrhythmia prevention
MeSH terms
Deep Learning, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Algorithms, Arrhythmias, Cardiac, Artificial Intelligence, Electrocardiography, Female, Humans, Hyperkalemia, Male, Mass Screening, Middle Aged, Retrospective Studies, Sensitivity and Specificity, Prevalence, Neural Networks, Computer, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic

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