Development and Validation of a Deep Learning Model to Screen for Trisomy 21 During the First Trimester from Nuchal Ultrasonographic Images
Open accessAbstract
Importance: Accurate screening of trisomy 21 in the first trimester can provide an early opportunity for decision-making regarding reproductive choices. Objective: To develop and validate a deep learning model for screening fetuses with trisomy 21 based on ultrasonographic images. Design, Setting, and Participants: This diagnostic study used data from all available cases and controls enrolled at 2 hospitals in China between January 2009 and September 2020. Two-dimensional images of the midsagittal plane of the fetal face in singleton pregnancies with gestational age more than 11 weeks and less than 14 weeks were examined. Observers were blinded to subjective fetus nuchal translucency (NT) marker measurements. A convolutional neural network was developed to construct a deep learning model. Data augmentation was applied to generate more data. Different groups were randomly selected as training and validation sets to assess the robustness of the deep learning model. The fetal NT was shown and measured. Each detection of trisomy 21 was confirmed by chorionic villus sampling or amniocentesis. Data were analyzed from March 1, 2021, to January 3, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was detection of fetuses with trisomy 21. The receiver operating characteristic curve, metrics of accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were used for model performance evaluation. Results: A total of 822 case and control participants (mean [SD] age, 31.9 [4.6] years) were enrolled in the study, including 550 participants (mean [SD] age, 31.7 [4.7] years) in the training set and 272 participants (mean [SD] age, 32.3 [4.7] years) in the validation set. The deep learning model showed good performance for trisomy 21 screening in the training (AUC, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.99) and validation (AUC, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.93-0.98) sets. The deep learning model had better detective performance for fetuses with trisomy 21 than the model with NT marker and maternal age (training: AUC, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.77-0.86; validation: AUC, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.66-0.80). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that this deep learning model accurately screened fetuses with trisomy 21, which indicates that the model is a potential tool to facilitate universal primary screening for trisomy 21.
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Walker et al., Zhang et al., Sciortino et al., and Deng et al. introduced AI models for automated detection and measurement of NT.
“The research groups Walker et al. [132], Zhang et al. [133], Sciortino et al. [134], and Deng et al. [135] addressed the time consuming process of NT measurement by introducing AI models for its automated detection and measurement”
From Evolving the Era of 5D Ultrasound? A Systematic Literature Review on the Applications for Artificial Intelligence Ultrasound Imaging in Obstetrics and Gynecology (2023) · cites this paper as [133]
The Results describe Zhang et al.’s deep-learning model for trisomy 21 screening from ultrasonographic images, so the paper does introduce an AI model in this setting. But the Methods say trained sonographers measured NT, and the Discussion > Limitations proposes prediction of NT length as future work. The paper does not support the attributed claim that its model automated NT detection and measurement. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredA limitation of first trimester AI models was small data sets in rare anomalies.
“small data sets in rare anomalies [132,133]”
From Evolving the Era of 5D Ultrasound? A Systematic Literature Review on the Applications for Artificial Intelligence Ultrasound Imaging in Obstetrics and Gynecology (2023) · cites this paper as [133]
The Discussion’s Limitations section says the sample size was limited for this first-trimester deep-learning screening model. But the study addresses trisomy 21 alone, and the Introduction calls it the most prevalent chromosomal anomaly; it does not establish that small datasets are a limitation across rare anomalies generally. Page numbers were not provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredDetection of rare pathologies is limited due to missing training of pattern recognition models, as AI algorithms depend on large data sets.
“As AI algorithms are usually dependent on large data sets for training, the detection of rare pathologies is limited due to missing training of pattern recognition models [132,133].”
From Evolving the Era of 5D Ultrasound? A Systematic Literature Review on the Applications for Artificial Intelligence Ultrasound Imaging in Obstetrics and Gynecology (2023) · cites this paper as [133]
The Discussion > Limitations section says the study’s limited sample size constrained its screening model and that the model was trained only for trisomy 21, with trisomies 18 and 13 left for future work. It does not establish the broader claim that AI generally depends on large datasets or that rare pathologies are difficult to detect because pattern-recognition models lack training. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredA limitation of first trimester AI models was missing real-time application for clinical applicability.
“and missing real-time application for clinical applicability [133,134,138].”
A potential benefit of first trimester AI models was reduced workload.
“and reduced workload [133,135,136,137].”
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- Authors
- Zhang, L., Dong, D., Sun, Y., Hu, C., Sun, C., Wu, Q., & Tian, J.
- Affiliations
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Jinan University (CN)
- Capital Medical University (CN)
- Department of Ultrasound, Shijiazhuang Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital, Shijiazhuang, China
- Corresponding author
- Wu, Qingqing
- Tian, Jie
- Venue
- JAMA Network Open
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2022-06-21
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- e2217854
- ISSN
- 2574-3805 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC9214589
- OpenAlex
- W4283276009
- Cited by
- 42
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 1
- FWCI
- 9.05
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- JAMA Network Open (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (2017YFC1309100, 91959130, HLHPTP201703, 82022036, 91959130, 81971776, 81771924, 6202790004, 81930053, 6202790004, 81771924, 81930053, QYZDJ-SSW-JSC005, 81971776, 81771924, 81971776, 2017YFA0205200, 82022036)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (QYZDJ - SSW - JSC005, 2017175, 2017YFC1309100, XDB 38040200, 2017YFA0205200, GJJSTD2017 0004, 81930053, 38040200, 81771924, JSC005, HLHPTP201703)
- Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2017175, QYZDJ-SSW-JSC005, 81930053, 2017YFA0205200)
- Youth Innovation Promotion Association (2017175)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Prenatal Screening and Diagnostics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Health Informatics › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare and Education
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
- Keywords
- Down syndrome, Down syndrome screening, first trimester, nuchal translucency, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, prenatal diagnosis, maternal age, chorionic villus sampling, amniocentesis, model validation, data augmentation, singleton pregnancy
- MeSH terms
- Deep Learning, Adult, Down Syndrome, Female, Humans, Infant, Pregnancy, Pregnancy Trimester, First, Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein-A, Prenatal Diagnosis, Trisomy, Biomarkers, Chorionic Gonadotropin, beta Subunit, Human
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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