The DOI matches its Crossref record; 5 of the 5 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Delayed onset of runaway and moist greenhouse climates for Earth
Abstract
As the Sun slowly grows brighter over its main sequence lifetime, habitability on Earth's surface will eventually become threatened probably leading to moist and then runaway greenhouse climates. One‐dimensional climate models predict that a catastrophic thermal runaway will be triggered by a 6% increase in the solar constant above its present level. However, here simulations using a three‐dimensional climate model with fixed carbon dioxide and methane indicate that surface habitability may be maintained at significantly larger solar constants. A 15.5% increase in the solar constant yields global mean surface temperatures of 312.9 K, well short of moist and runaway greenhouse states. Numerical limitations prevent simulation of climates much warmer than this. Nonetheless, our results imply that Earth's climate may remain safe against both water loss and thermal runaway limits for at least another 1.5 billion years and probably for much longer.
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Other studies have included cloud and moisture circulation effects with global climate models, pushing the inner edge of the habitable zone closer to the star, to 0.95 AU in one study and to 0.93 AU in another.
“Other studies have included these effects by studying the problem with global climate models. This pushes the inner edge of the habitable zone closer to the star, to 0.95 AU in one study (Leconte et al., 2013) and to 0.93 AU in another (Wolf and Toon, 2014).”
From The Astrobiology Primer v2.0 (2016) · cites this paper as Wolf and Toon, 2014
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Cites
The HITRAN2016 molecular spectroscopic database
Gordon, I. E., Rothman, L. S., Hill, C., Kochanov, R. V., Tan, Y., Bernath, P. F., Birk, M., Boudon, V., Campargue, A., Chance, K. V., et al. (2017) · Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer · doi:10.1016/j.jqsrt.2017.06.038 · Cited by 7,721
Habitable Zones around Main Sequence Stars
Kasting, J. F., Whitmire, D. P., & Reynolds, R. T. (1993) · Icarus · doi:10.1006/icar.1993.1010 · Cited by 2,501 · cited 3×
“…humidities are near 75% at the surface and 50% above 700 mb. One-dimensional studies typically assume fully saturated atmospheres and thus they artificially amplify the strength of the water vapor greenhouse [Kasting, 1988; Kasting et al., 1993; Goldblatt et al., 2013; Kopparapu et al., 2013].”
BackgroundHABITABLE ZONES AROUND MAIN-SEQUENCE STARS: NEW ESTIMATES
Kopparapu, R. K., Ramirez, R., Kasting, J. F., Eymet, V., Robinson, T. D., Mahadevan, S., Terrien, R. C., Domagal-Goldman, S., Meadows, V., & Deshpande, R. (2013) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.1088/0004-637x/765/2/131 · Cited by 1,615 · cited 8×
“Cloud-free 1-Dmodels with saturated atmospheres predict that Earth will reach moist greenhouse conditions (Ts=340 K) when the solar constant increases by only 1.5% above its present level [Kopparapu et al., 2013].”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSolar interior structure and luminosity variations
Gough, D. O. (1981) · Solar Physics · doi:10.1007/bf00151270 · Cited by 798
Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of Earth and Venus
Kasting, J. F. (1988) · Icarus · doi:10.1016/0019-1035(88)90116-9 · Cited by 709 · cited 2×
“…humidities are near 75% at the surface and 50% above 700 mb. One-dimensional studies typically assume fully saturated atmospheres and thus they artificially amplify the strength of the water vapor greenhouse [Kasting, 1988; Kasting et al., 1993; Goldblatt et al., 2013; Kopparapu et al., 2013].”
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Domagal-Goldman, S. D., Wright, K. E., Domagal-Goldman, S. D., Wright, K. E., Adamala, K., Arina de la Rubia, L., Bond, J., Dartnell, L. R., Goldman, A. D., Lynch, K., et al. (2016) · Astrobiology · doi:10.1089/ast.2015.1460 · Cited by 136
“This pushes the inner edge of the habitable zone closer to the star, to 0.95 AU in one study (Leconte et al., 2013) and to 0.93 AU in another (Wolf and Toon, 2014).”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Wolf, E. T., & Toon, O. B.
- Affiliations
- University of Colorado Boulder (US)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2014-01-10
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 167-172
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1762954113
- Cited by
- 114
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 33 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 4
- FWCI
- 4.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship (NNX10AR97H)
- NASA Exobiology (NNX10AR17G)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Earth Systems and Cosmic Evolution
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies
- Keywords
- runaway greenhouse, Earth habitability, carbon dioxide, methane, water loss
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