CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 55Climate variability and modelsHydrology and Drought AnalysisGeology and Paleoclimatology Research

Robust sahel drought due to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in CMIP5 simulations.

Open access
Villamayor, Julián, Mohino, Elsa·2015·Geophysical Research Letters
DOI 10.1002/2014gl062473
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

Many studies address the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) as a modulator of climate in several regions all over the globe. However, very few suggest that it has an impact on Sahel rainfall low‐frequency variability. This work shows the relevance of such connection, supported by a robust response of state‐of‐the‐art global climate models, involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our results reveal that the positive phase of the IPO has a negative impact on Sahel rainfall anomalies regardless of the externally forced changes induced by anthropogenic gases. Such relationship is stronger for those models in which sea surface temperatures associated with the positive phase of the IPO show warmer anomalies over the tropical Pacific. Therefore, we suggest the importance of a skillful simulation of IPO to improve decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall and to better understand its variability.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1002/2014gl062473

Cites

3 of 3 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • There is robust forcing of the tropical Atlantic from the tropical Pacific on interannual and longer timescales.

    “There is robust forcing of the tropical Atlantic from the tropical Pacific on interannual and longer timescales (Enfield and Mayer, 1997;Chiang et al., 2002;Villamayor and Mohino, 2015).”

    From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Villamayor and Mohino, 2015

    The Results report tropical Atlantic warming associated with the Pacific IPO in observations and simulations, which supports a link on decadal timescales. They also say the response outside the Pacific is less consistent across models; the paper does not establish robust Pacific forcing of the tropical Atlantic on interannual timescales. The robust finding concerns the IPO’s effect on Sahel rainfall. (LLM, conf=0.86)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 54

  1. Arblaster, J., G. Meehl, and A. Moore (2002), Interdecadal modulation of Australian rainfall, Clim. Dyn., 18(6), 519-531.
  2. Biasutti, M. (2013), Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1613-1623, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50206. · DOI
  3. Bonfils, C., and B. D. Santer (2011), Investigating the possibility of a human component in various pacific decadal oscillation indices, Clim. Dyn., 37(7-8), 1457-1468.
  4. Boucher, O., et al. (2013), Clouds and Aerosols, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker et al., pp. 571-657, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York.
  5. Chao, Y., M. Ghil, and J. C. McWilliams (2000), Pacific interdecadal variability in this century's sea surface temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(15), 2261-2264, doi:10.1029/1999GL011324. · DOI
  6. Compo, G. P., et al. (2011), The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1-28, doi:10.1002/qj.776. · DOI · Paper page
  7. Cook, K. H., and E. K. Vizy (2006), Coupled model simulations of the West African monsoon system: Twentieth and twenty-first century simulations, J. Clim., 19(15), 3681-3703.
  8. Dai, A. (2013), The influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on U.S. precipitation during 1923-2010, Clim. Dyn., 41(3-4), 633-646.
  9. Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and J. W. Hurrell (2004), Pacific interdecadal climate variability: Linkages between the tropics and the North Pacific during Boreal Winter since 1900, J. Clim., 17(16), 3109-3124.
  10. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., I. Andreu-Burillo, Y. Chikamoto, J. García-Serrano, V. Guemas, M. Kimoto, T. Mochizuki, L. R. L. Rodrigues, and G. J. van Oldenborgh (2013), Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction, Nat. Comm., 4, 1715, doi:10.1038/ncomms2704. · DOI
  11. Farneti, R., F. Molteni, and F. Kucharski (2014), Pacific interdecadal variability driven by tropical-extratropical interactions, Clim. Dyn., 42(11-12), 3337-3355.
  12. Folland, C. K., T. N. Palmer, and D. E. Parker (1986), Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901-85, Nature, 320, 602-607, doi:10.1038/ 320602a0. · DOI · Paper page
  13. Gaetani, M., and E. Mohino (2013), Decadal prediction of the Sahelian precipitation in CMIP5 simulations, J. Clim., 26, 7708-7719, doi:10.1175/ JCLI-D-12-00635. · DOI
  14. García-Serrano, J., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. J. Haarsma, and I. Polo (2013), Decadal prediction of the dominant West African monsoon rainfall modes, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 5260-5279, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50465. · DOI
  15. Giannini, A., R. Saravannan, and P. Chang (2005), Dynamics of the boreal summer African monsoon in the NSIPP1 atmospheric model, Clim. Dyn., 25, 517-535, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0056. · DOI
  16. Gu, G., and R. F. Adler (2013), Interdecadal variability/long-term changes in global precipitation patterns during the past three decades: Global warming and/or Pacific decadal variability?, Clim. Dyn., 40(11-12), 3009-3022.
  17. Hoerling, M., J. Hurrell, J. Eischeid, and A. Phillips (2006), Detection and attribution of twentieth-century northern and southern African rainfall change, J. Clim., 19(16), 3989-4008.
  18. Hwang, Y. T., D. M. Frierson, and S. M. Kang (2013), Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol and the southward shift of tropical precipitation in the late 20th century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2845-2850, doi:10.1002/grl.50502. · DOI · Paper page
  19. Janicot, S., S. Trzaska, and I. Poccard (2001), Summer Sahel-ENSO teleconnection and decadal time scale SST variations, Clim. Dyn., 18(3-4), 303-320.
  20. Joly, M. (2008), Rôle des océans dans la variabilité climatique de la Mousson Africaine, PhD thesis, Univ. of Paris-Est, Paris.
  21. Joly, M., and A. Voldoire (2009), Influence of ENSO on the West African monsoon: temporal aspects and atmospheric processes, J. Clim., 22(12), 3193-3210.
  22. Joly, M., A. Voldoire, H. Douville, P. Terray, and J. F. Royer (2007), African monsoon teleconnections with tropical SSTs: Validation and evolution in a set of IPCC4 simulations, Clim. Dyn., 29(1), 1-20.
  23. Kim, H. M., P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry (2012), Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multimodel CMIP5 decadal hindcasts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10701, doi:10.1029/2012GL051644. · DOI
  24. Kirtman, B., et al. (2013), Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker et al., pp. 953-1028, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York.
  25. Knight, J. R., C. K. Folland, and A. A. Scaife (2006), Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026242. · DOI · Paper page
  26. Krishnan, R., and M. Sugi (2003), Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Clim. Dyn., 21(3-4), 233-242.
  27. Kucharski, F., F. Molteni, M. P. King, R. Farneti, I. S. Kang, and L. Feudale (2013), On the need of intermediate complexity general circulation models: A "SPEEDY" example, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 25-30, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00238. · DOI
  28. Losada, T., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, S. Janicot, S. Gervois, F. Chauvin, and P. Ruti (2010), A multimodel approach to the Atlantic Equatorial mode: Impact on the West African monsoon, Clim. Dyn., 35, 29-43, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0625-5. · DOI
  29. MacDonald, G. M., and R. A. Case (2005), Variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the past millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L08703, doi:10.1029/2005GL022478. · DOI
  30. Martin, E. R., C. Thorncroft, and B. B. B. Booth (2014), The multidecadal Atlantic SST-Sahel rainfall teleconnection in CMIP5 simulations, J. Clim., 27, 784-806, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00242. · DOI
  31. Meehl, G. A., and A. Hu (2006), Megadroughts in the Indian monsoon region and southwest North America and a mechanism for associated multidecadal Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, J. Clim., 19(9), 1605-1623. · DOI
  32. Meehl, G. A., A. Hu, J. M. Arblaster, J. Fasullo, and K. E. Trenberth (2013), Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, J. Clim., 26(18), 7298-7310.
  33. Minobe, S. (1999), Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecadal climate oscillations over the North Pacific: Role in climatic regime shifts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 855-858, doi:10.1029/1999GL900119. · DOI
  34. Mitchel, T. D., and P. D. Jones (2005), An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 693-712, doi:10.1002/joc.1181. · DOI
  35. Mohino, E., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, C. R. Mechoso, S. Gervois, P. Ruti, and F. Chauvin (2011b), Impacts of the tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the seasonal cycle of the West African monsoon, J. Clim., 24, 3878-3891, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3988. · DOI
  36. Molion, L. C. B., and P. S. Lucio (2013), A note on Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the intertropical front in Sahel, Africa, Atmos. Clim. Sci., 3, doi:10.4236/acs.2013.33028. · DOI
  37. Newman, M. (2013), An empirical benchmark for decadal forecasts of global surface temperature anomalies, J. Clim., 26(14), 5260-5269.
  38. Newman, M., G. P. Compo, and M. A. Alexander (2003), ENSO-forced variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation, J. Clim., 16(23), 3853-3857.
  39. Nicholson, S. E. (2013), The West African Sahel: A review of recent studies on the rainfall regime and its interannual variability, ISRN Meteorol., 2013, 453,521.
  40. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, and D. P. Rowell (2003), Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D14), 4407, doi:10.1029/ 2002JD002670. · DOI
  41. Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., et al. (2011), Interannual and decadal SST forced responses of the West African monsoon, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 12, 67-74, doi:10.1002/ASL.308. · DOI · Paper page
  42. Rowell, D. P. (2003), The impact of Mediterranean SSTs on the Sahelian rainfall season, J. Clim., 16(5), 849-862.
  43. Schneider, N., and B. D. Cornuelle (2005), The forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation*, J. Clim., 18(21), 4355-4373.
  44. Shakun, J. D., and J. Shaman (2009), Tropical origins of North and South Pacific decadal variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19711, doi:10.1029/ 2009GL040313. · DOI
  45. Shen, C., W. C. Wang, W. Gong, and Z. Hao (2006), A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03702, doi:10.1029/2005GL024804. · DOI
  46. Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore (2008), Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006), J. Clim., 21, 2283-2296, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2100. · DOI
  47. Sultan, B., and S. Janicot (2003), The West African monsoon dynamics. Part II: The "preonset" and "onset" of the summer monsoon, J. Clim., 16, 3407-3427. · DOI
  48. Ting, M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and C. Li (2011), Robust features of Atlantic multidecadal variability and its climate impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L17705, doi:10.1029/2011GL048712. · DOI
  49. Tourre, Y. M., B. Rajagopalan, Y. Kushnir, M. Barlow, and W. B. White (2001), Patterns of coherent decadal and interdecadal climate signals in the Pacific basin during the 20th century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28(10), 2069-2072, doi:10.1029/2000GL012780. · DOI
  50. Vizy, E. K., and K. H. Cook (2002), Development and application of a mesoscale climate model for the tropics: Influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on the West African monsoon, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4023, doi:10.1029/2001JD000686. · DOI
  51. Vizy, E. K., K. H. Cook, J. Crétat, and N. Neupane (2013), Projections of a Wetter Sahel in the twenty-first century from global and regional models, J. Clim., 26(13), 4664-4687.
  52. Wang, X., A. S. Auler, R. L. Edwards, H. Cheng, E. Ito, Y. Wang, X. Kong, and M. Solheid (2007), Millennial-scale precipitation changes in southern Brazil over the past 90,000 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23701, doi:10.1029/2007GL031149. · DOI
  53. Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth (2006), Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17712, doi:10.1029/2006GL026267. · DOI · Paper page
  54. Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti (1997), ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93, J. Clim., 10(5), 1004-1020. Geophysical Research Letters

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Villamayor, J., & Mohino, E.
Affiliations
  • Universidad Complutense de Madrid (ES)
  • Departamento de Física de la Tierra, Astronomía y Astrofísica I Universidad Complutense de Madrid Madrid Spain
Corresponding author
Villamayor, Julián
ORCID
Villamayor, Julián
Venue
Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published
2015-02-24
Volume
42
Issue
4
Pages
1214-1222
ISSN
  • 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
  • 1944-8007
DOI
10.1002/2014gl062473
OpenAlex
W1915375669
Cited by
55
References
3
Citations by year
2025: 3 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 4
FWCI
6.29
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations
  • Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
  • Library Open Repository (Universidad Complutense Madrid) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • EGUGA
Funders
European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013, CGL2012-38923-C02-01)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
Keywords
Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Sahel drought, low-frequency climate variability, tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, decadal climate prediction, anthropogenic forcing, CMIP5 climate models, teleconnections

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review