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Cited by 178Climate variability and modelsHydrology and Drought AnalysisGeology and Paleoclimatology Research

A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales

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Giannini, A, Salack, S, Lodoun, T, Ali, A, Gaye, A T, Ndiaye, O·2013·Environmental Research Letters
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024010
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Abstract

We propose a re-interpretation of the oceanic influence on the climate of the African Sahel that is consistent across observations, 20th century simulations and 21st century projections, and that resolves the uncertainty in projections of precipitation change in this region: continued warming of the global tropical oceans increases the threshold for convection, potentially drying tropical land, but this 'upped ante' can be met if sufficient moisture is supplied in monsoon flow. In this framework, the reversal to warming of the subtropical North Atlantic, which is now out-pacing warming of the global tropical oceans, provides that moisture, and explains the partial recovery in precipitation since persistent drought in the 1970s and 1980s. We find this recovery to result from increases in daily rainfall intensity, rather than in frequency, most evidently so in Senegal, the westernmost among the three Sahelian countries analyzed. Continuation of these observed trends is consistent with projections for an overall wetter Sahel, but more variable precipitation on all time scales, from intra-seasonal to multi-decadal.

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Crossref · 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024010

Cites

55 of 55 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • Smallholder rainfed agriculture and herding in the Sahel are becoming increasingly difficult due to unpredictable availability of water and in some locations expansion of the Sahara Desert.

    “Smallholder rainfed agriculture and herding are becoming increasingly difficult due to unpredictable availability of water and in some locations expansion of the Sahara Desert [23, 61, 62].”

    From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [23]

    The Conclusion (page not provided) says adaptation in the Sahel may have to contend with increased rainfall variability, and the Introduction links drought to concerns about agricultural development. But the paper does not establish that smallholder farming and herding are becoming increasingly difficult, or that the Sahara is expanding in some locations; it describes the Sahel as the desert’s southern edge, not an area of documented expansion. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • The 2013 IPCC report forecasts that, by the late twenty-first century, intense heat and dryness will affect countries extending across North Africa into Egypt and Sudan and northeast to Saudi Arabia, the Levant including Syria, Iraq, and Iran, to parts of India and China in Asia, and across the Southern United States and Mexico.

    “The 2013 IPCC report forecasts that, by the late twenty-first century, intense heat and dryness will affect countries extending across North Africa into Egypt and Sudan and northeast to Saudi Arabia, the Levant including Syria, Iraq, and Iran [20], to parts of India and China in Asia, and across the Southern United States and Mexico [21–23].”

    From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [23]

    Section 2 discusses models of future Sahel rainfall, including the possibility of a wetter Sahel; the Conclusion likewise discusses a possible recovery of rains. Our copy does not report a 2013 IPCC forecast of intense heat and dryness across the countries named in the portion of the sentence cited to this paper (searched for the IPCC forecast and the named regions). (LLM, conf=0.75)

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Cites

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3 of the 58 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. Rotstayn L and Lohmann U 2002 Tropical rainfall trends and the indirect aerosol effect J. Clim. 15 2103-16 · DOI
  2. Traoré S B and Laouali A M 2011 Analyzing and predicting the onset and cessation dates of the rainy season in the West African Sahel WCRP Workshop on Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate (Barcelona, March 2011)
  3. Le Barbé L, Lebel T and Tapsoba D 2002 Rainfall variability in West Africa during the years 1950-90 J. Clim. 15 187-202 · DOI

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Authors
Giannini, A., Salack, S., Lodoun, T., Ali, A., Gaye, A. T., & Ndiaye, O.
Affiliations
  • Columbia University (US)
  • Centre d'Etude Regional pour l'Amelioration de l'Adaptation a la Secheresse (SN)
  • Institut de l'Environnement et Recherches Agricoles (BF)
  • Agrhymet Regional Centre (NE)
  • Cheikh Anta Diop University (SN)
  • Agence Nationale de l'Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (SN)
ORCID
Venue
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Published
2013-04-18
Volume
8
Issue
2
Pages
024010
ISSN
1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024010
OpenAlex
W2151415557
Cited by
178
References
58
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 31 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 16 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 16 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 1
FWCI
11.39
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
  • Greater South Information System
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (0955372)
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA08OAR4320754)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
Keywords
Sahel climate, rainfall variability, ocean-atmosphere interaction, North Atlantic warming, tropical ocean warming, rainfall intensity, precipitation projections, intraseasonal variability, interannual variability, multidecadal variability, Senegal

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