Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice‐Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea‐Level Projections
Open accessAbstract
Mechanisms such as ice‐shelf hydrofracturing and ice‐cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine‐based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea‐level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice‐sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global‐mean sea‐level (GMSL) and relative sea‐level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93–243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26–98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea‐level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post‐2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.
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Models of mass loss from the Antarctic ice-sheet are highly uncertain and models of the extent of Antarctic sea ice do not match reality well.
“In particular, models of mass loss from the Antarctic ice-sheet are highly uncertain [449] and models of the extent of Antarctic sea ice do not match reality well [263].”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [449]
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Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding
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Self-citationPredicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data
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Self-citationSea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)
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Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise
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Meteorological Drivers and Large-Scale Climate Forcing of West Antarctic Surface Melt
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Self-citationA High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners
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Self-citationContribution of Wave Setup to Projected Coastal Sea Level Changes
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Contemporary sea-level changes from global to local scales: a review
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Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process
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Increasing sequential tropical cyclone hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts
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Social vulnerability projections improve sea-level rise risk assessments
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Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users
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Self-citationProbabilistic Sea Level Projections at the Coast by 2100
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Adaptation to sea level rise: Learning from present examples of land subsidence
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Long-term sea-level rise necessitates a commitment to adaptation: A first order assessment
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The evolution of 21st century sea-level projections from IPCC AR5 to AR6 and beyond
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Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios
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Uncertainty in Sea Level Rise Projections Due to the Dependence Between Contributors
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Climate change: Does international research fulfill global demands and necessities?
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Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes
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Adaptation to sea level rise on low coral islands: Lessons from recent events
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Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea
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Coevolution of Extreme Sea Levels and Sea‐Level Rise Under Global Warming
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Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges
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Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model
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Enhancing New York City's resilience to sea level rise and increased coastal flooding
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Self-citationRising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable
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1.5°C Hotspots: Climate Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Impacts
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- Authors
- Kopp, R. E., DeConto, R. M., Bader, D. A., Hay, C. C., Horton, R. M., Kulp, S., Oppenheimer, M., Pollard, D., & Strauss, B. H.
- Affiliations
- Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)
- University of Massachusetts Amherst (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
- Climate Central (US)
- Princeton University (US)
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kopp, Robert E.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Earth's Future
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2017-12
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 1217-1233
- ISSN
- 2328-4277 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2775588074
- Cited by
- 345
- References
- 53
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 40 · 2022: 56 · 2021: 61 · 2020: 58 · 2019: 35 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 19.82
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Earth s Future (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (ICER‐1663807/1664013/1663693, OCE‐1202632, AGS 1203910/1203792)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Cryospheric studies and observations
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Polar Research and Ecology
- Keywords
- Antarctic ice sheet, sea level projections, marine-based ice sheets, probabilistic projections, expert elicitation, global mean sea level, relative sea level, RCP8.5, RCP2.6, ice sheet discharge, coastal submergence, adaptive management
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