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Cited by 1,288Coastal and Marine DynamicsFlood Risk Assessment and ManagementClimate Change, Adaptation, Migration

New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding

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Kulp, Scott A., Strauss, Benjamin H.·2019·Nature Communications
DOI 10.1038/s41467-019-12808-zPMC PMC6820795
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Abstract

Most estimates of global mean sea-level rise this century fall below 2 m. This quantity is comparable to the positive vertical bias of the principle digital elevation model (DEM) used to assess global and national population exposures to extreme coastal water levels, NASA’s SRTM. CoastalDEM is a new DEM utilizing neural networks to reduce SRTM error. Here we show – employing CoastalDEM—that 190 M people (150–250 M, 90% CI) currently occupy global land below projected high tide lines for 2100 under low carbon emissions, up from 110 M today, for a median increase of 80 M. These figures triple SRTM-based values. Under high emissions, CoastalDEM indicates up to 630 M people live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100, and up to 340 M for mid-century, versus roughly 250 M at present. We estimate one billion people now occupy land less than 10 m above current high tide lines, including 230 M below 1 m.

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  • Global mean sea level increased by 0.20 m between 1901 and 2018 and is projected to rise 0.28-1.88 m by 2100 relative to 1995-2014 levels.

    “Global mean sea level increased by 0·20 m between 1901 and 2018 and is projected to rise 0·28–1·88 m by 2100 (relative to 1995–2014 levels), with major local variations.22,226”

    From The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: facing record-breaking threats from delayed action (2024) · cites this paper as [226]

    The Introduction reports historical sea-level rise and projects further rise by 2100, while the Methods describe spatially varying local projections. It does not give the claimed 0.20 m rise for 1901–2018 or the 0.28–1.88 m range relative to 1995–2014; its projections use 2000 as their baseline. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Increasing equitable access to safe, adequately designed, and high-quality urban green spaces can help reduce the negative health impacts of climate change, reducing heat exposure and flood risk while offering physical and mental health co-benefits.

    “Increasing equitable access to safe, adequately designed, and high-quality urban green spaces can help reduce the negative health impacts of climate change, reducing heat exposure and flood risk while offering physical and mental health co-benefits by improving air quality and offering spaces for exercise, social interaction, and connection with nature (panel 4).195,196,199–202”

    From The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: facing record-breaking threats from delayed action (2024) · cites this paper as [196]

    The Results (Global; page not provided) estimate population exposure to future coastal flooding, and the Discussion (page not provided) discusses levees and seawalls as defenses. A search of our copy for urban green space, vegetation, heat and health found no passage addressing whether green spaces reduce flood or heat risks or provide the claimed health benefits. (LLM, conf=0.76)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

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Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Kulp, S. A., & Strauss, B. H.
Affiliations
Climate Central (US)
Corresponding author
Kulp, Scott A.
ORCID
Venue
Nature Communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2019-10-29
Volume
10
Issue
1
Pages
4844-4844
ISSN
2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z
PMC
PMC6820795
OpenAlex
W2982675481
Cited by
1,288
References
1
Citations by year
2026: 108 · 2025: 154 · 2024: 196 · 2023: 209 · 2022: 211 · 2021: 249 · 2020: 146 · 2019: 14
FWCI
116.23
Type
journal article
Language
en
Update notices
correction (2019-12-12)
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (1663807)
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC17K0698)
  • V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation
  • Schmidt Family Foundation
  • Nuclear Safety and Security Commission
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Earth-Surface Processes › Coastal and Marine Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Flood Risk Assessment and Management
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
Keywords
sea level rise, coastal flooding, population exposure, digital elevation model, SRTM, artificial neural networks, high tide line, coastal vulnerability, flood inundation

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