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Dementia incidence continues to increase with age in the oldest old: The 90+ study
Open accessAbstract
Objective: The oldest old are the fastest growing segment of the US population, and accurate estimates of dementia incidence in this group are crucial for healthcare planning. Although dementia incidence doubles every 5 years from ages 65 to 90 years, it is unknown if this exponential increase continues past age 90 years. Here, we estimate age‐ and sex‐specific incidence rates of all‐cause dementia in people aged 90 years and older, including estimates for centenarians. Methods: Participants are from The 90+ Study, a population‐based longitudinal study of aging and dementia. Three hundred thirty nondemented participants aged 90 years and older at baseline were followed between January 2003 and December 2007. Age‐ and sex‐specific incidence rates of all‐cause dementia were estimated by person‐years analysis. Results: The overall incidence rate of all‐cause dementia was 18.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.3–21.5) per year and was similar for men and women (risk ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.65–1.37). Rates increased exponentially with age from 12.7% per year in the 90–94‐year age group, to 21.2% per year in the 95–99‐year age group, to 40.7% per year in the 100+‐year age group. The doubling time based on a Poisson regression was 5.5 years. Interpretation: Incidence of all‐cause dementia is very high in people aged 90 years and older and continues to increase exponentially with age in both men and women. Projections of the number of people with dementia should incorporate this continuing increase of dementia incidence after age 90 years. Our results foretell the growing public health burden of dementia in an increasingly aging population. ANN NEUROL 2010;67:114–121
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“This age-related increase in VaD follows the pattern of stroke,269 although dementia after stroke may be more frequent in people <80 years old.270”
From Vascular Contributions to Cognitive Impairment and Dementia: A Statement for Healthcare Professionals From the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association (2011) · cites this paper as [269]
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“A recent review identified older age, lower education, prestroke cognitive impairment, diabetes, and atrial fibrillation as factors that increased the risk, but one of the strongest predictors of cognitive decline after an initial stroke was the occurrence of a second stroke.269,270”
From Vascular Contributions to Cognitive Impairment and Dementia: A Statement for Healthcare Professionals From the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association (2011) · cites this paper as [269]
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“In people with recurrent stroke, the risk of dementia rose to ≈30%, regardless of the number and severity of vascular risk factors they had been exposed to before the stroke.269”
From Vascular Contributions to Cognitive Impairment and Dementia: A Statement for Healthcare Professionals From the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association (2011) · cites this paper as [269]
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“According to some studies its incidence and prevalence continuously increases with advancing age, and appears to reach a point at which a majority of those beyond a certain age likely have it [3, 8, 12].”
From Brain aging, Alzheimer's disease, and mitochondria (2011) · cites this paper as [12]
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“The incidence of dementia increases continually up to (179-183) and above (139, 184) 90 years of age.”
From Correlation of Alzheimer Disease Neuropathologic Changes With Cognitive Status: A Review of the Literature (2012) · cites this paper as [184]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Corrada, M. M., Brookmeyer, R., Paganini‐Hill, A., Berlau, D., & Kawas, C. H.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- University of Southern California (US)
- Corresponding author
- Corrada, María M.
- Venue
- Annals of Neurology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2010-01
- Volume
- 67
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 114-121
- ISSN
- 0364-5134 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-8249
- PMC
- PMC3385995
- OpenAlex
- W2116125119
- Cited by
- 523
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 23 · 2025: 47 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 41 · 2021: 46 · 2020: 39 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 32 · 2017: 33 · 2016: 35 · 2015: 23 · 2014: 20 · 2013: 30 · 2012: 26
- FWCI
- 12.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Annals of Neurology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (R01AG021055, T32AG000096)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Developmental and Educational Psychology › Aging and Gerontology Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Aging, Health, and Disability
- Keywords
- dementia incidence, oldest old, centenarians, age-specific incidence, sex differences, dementia projections
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Aged, 80 and over, California, Dementia, Educational Status, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Models, Biological, Psychiatric Status Rating Scales, Risk, Sex Factors, Incidence, Poisson Distribution
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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