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Cited by 346Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsEpistemology, Ethics, and MetaphysicsClinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 126 of the 127 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Bias and error in human judgment

Kruglanski, Arie W., Ajzen, Icek·1983·European Journal of Social Psychology
DOI 10.1002/ejsp.2420130102
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Abstract

Currently prevalent views of human inference are contrasted with an integrated theory of the epistemic process. The prevailing views are characterized by the following orienting assumptions: (1) There exist reliable criteria of inferential validity based on objectively veridical or optimal modes of information processing. (2) Motivational and cognitive factors bias inferences away from these criteria and thus enhance the likelihood of judgmental error. (3) The layperson's epistemic process is pluralistic; it consists of a diverse repertory of information‐processing strategies (heuristics, schemas) selectively invoked under various circumstances. By contrast, the present analysis yields the following conclusions: (1) There exist no secure criteria of validity. (2) Psychological factors that bias inferences away from any currently accepted criteria need not enhance the likelihood of error. (3) The inference process may be considered unitary rather than pluralistic. The various strategies and biases discussed in the literature typically confound universal epistemic process with specific examples (or contents) of such processes. Empirical support for the present analysis is presented, including evidence refuting proposals that specific contents of inference are of universal applicability; evidence suggesting that people do not, because of a reliance on subnormative heuristics, underutilize nonnative statistical information—rather, people seem unlikely to utilize any information i…

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Citations

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Research works printed but not linked: 20

  1. Ajzen I., Attribution Theory: Essays and Experiments
  2. Campbell D. T., 1974, The Philosophy of Karl Popper, Vol. 14, I and II. The library of living philosophers
  3. Graumann C. F.andSommer M.(in press). ‘Schema and inference models in cognitive social psychology’ International Journal of Theoretical Psychology: Annals Vol. 1.
  4. Harvey J. H., 1976, New Directions in Attribution Research
  5. James W., 1890, Principles of Psychology
  6. 10.1037/0003-066X.34.2.107 · DOI
  7. Jones E. E., 1965, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology
  8. Jones E. E., 1971, The Actor and the Observer: Divergent Perceptions of the Causes of Behavior
  9. Kruglanski A. W., 1978, New Directions in Attribution Research
  10. Kruglanski A. W., An Attributional Perspective in Clinical Psychology
  11. Lazarus R. S., 1981, Cognition and Clinical Science
  12. Lerner M. J., 1976, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology
  13. Levy‐Bruhl L., 1966, How Natives Think
  14. McArthur L. Z., 1981, The Ontario Symposium on Personality and Social Psychology
  15. McGuire W. J., 1960, Attitude Organization and Change
  16. Ross L., 1980, New Directions for Methodology of Behavioral Science: Fallible Judgment in Behavioral Research
  17. Snyder M. L., New Directions in Attribution Research
  18. Taylor S. E., 1978, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology
  19. Weimer W. B., 1976, Psychology and the Conceptual Foundations of Science
  20. Wundt W., 1862, Beitrage zur theorie der Sinneswahmehmung

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Metadata

Authors
Kruglanski, A. W., & Ajzen, I.
Affiliations
Tel Aviv University (IL)
Corresponding author
Kruglanski, Arie W.
ORCID
Venue
European Journal of Social Psychology
Publisher
Wiley
Published
1983-01
Volume
13
Issue
1
Pages
1-44
ISSN
  • 0046-2772 (ISSN-L)
  • 1099-0992
DOI
10.1002/ejsp.2420130102
OpenAlex
W2009485604
Cited by
346
References
127
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 6
FWCI
6.93
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 8453 d)
Locations
European Journal of Social Psychology (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
Keywords
human judgment, cognitive biases, heuristics, schemas, epistemic processes, inferential validity, belief perseverance, discreditation, motivational factors, information processing strategies

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