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Bias and error in human judgment

Kruglanski, Arie W., Ajzen, Icek·1983·European Journal of Social Psychology

DOI 10.1002/ejsp.2420130102

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Abstract

Currently prevalent views of human inference are contrasted with an integrated theory of the epistemic process. The prevailing views are characterized by the following orienting assumptions: (1) There exist reliable criteria of inferential validity based on objectively veridical or optimal modes of information processing. (2) Motivational and cognitive factors bias inferences away from these criteria and thus enhance the likelihood of judgmental error. (3) The layperson's epistemic process is pluralistic; it consists of a diverse repertory of information‐processing strategies (heuristics, schemas) selectively invoked under various circumstances. By contrast, the present analysis yields the following conclusions: (1) There exist no secure criteria of validity. (2) Psychological factors that bias inferences away from any currently accepted criteria need not enhance the likelihood of error. (3) The inference process may be considered unitary rather than pluralistic. The various strategies and biases discussed in the literature typically confound universal epistemic process with specific examples (or contents) of such processes. Empirical support for the present analysis is presented, including evidence refuting proposals that specific contents of inference are of universal applicability; evidence suggesting that people do not, because of a reliance on subnormative heuristics, underutilize nonnative statistical information—rather, people seem unlikely to utilize any information i…

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Authors: Kruglanski, A. W., & Ajzen, I.
Affiliations: Tel Aviv University (IL)
Corresponding author: Kruglanski, Arie W.
ORCID: Kruglanski, Arie W.
Ajzen, Icek
Venue: European Journal of Social Psychology
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 1983-01
Volume: 13
Issue: 1
Pages: 1-44
ISSN: 0046-2772 (ISSN-L)
1099-0992
DOI: 10.1002/ejsp.2420130102
OpenAlex: W2009485604
Cited by: 346
References: 127
Citations by year: 2026: 9 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 6
FWCI: 6.93
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 8453 d)
Locations: European Journal of Social Psychology (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
Keywords: human judgment, cognitive biases, heuristics, schemas, epistemic processes, inferential validity, belief perseverance, discreditation, motivational factors, information processing strategies

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Bias and error in human judgment

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