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Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013

Open access
Lewis, Sophie C., Karoly, David J.·2013·Geophysical Research Letters

Abstract

Anthropogenic contributions to the record hot 2013 Australian summer are investigated using a suite of climate model experiments. This was the hottest Australian summer in the observational record. Australian area‐average summer temperatures for simulations with natural forcings only were compared to simulations with anthropogenic and natural forcings for the period 1976–2005 and the RCP8.5 high emission simulation (2006–2020) from nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. Using fraction of attributable risk to compare the likelihood of extreme Australian summer temperatures between the experiments, it was very likely (>90% confidence) there was at least a 2.5 times increase in the odds of extreme heat due to human influences using simulations to 2005, and a fivefold increase in this risk using simulations for 2006–2020. The human contribution to the increased odds of Australian summer extremes like 2013 was substantial, while natural climate variations alone, including El Niño Southern Oscillation, are unlikely to explain the record temperature.

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Metadata

Authors
Lewis, S. C., & Karoly, D. J.
Venue
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2013-07-23
Volume
40
Issue
14
Pages
3705-3709
ISSN
  • 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
  • 1944-8007
OpenAlex
W1560946750
Cited by
193
References
4
FWCI
14.10
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
hybrid

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1002/grl.50673
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Lewis, S. C., & Karoly, D. J. (2013). Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50673

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