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An ecological theory of changing human population dynamics

Henderson, Kirsten, Loreau, Michel·2019·People and Nature
DOI 10.1002/pan3.8
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Abstract

The dependence of humans on nature has come into focus as the human population continues to grow, resources diminish and production technology stagnates – threatening human well‐being on a global scale. Numerous previous models describe human population dynamics, in relation to a multitude of different factors. However, there are no consistent driving factors of human demography through history, which makes predicting future changes more challenging. Here, we review the literature on human population growth from empirical data and previous models, which allows us to highlight key trends in demography and land cover changes. We then establish an ecologically driven theory of demographic change that uses resource accessibility as a proxy for socio‐economic factors. The theory combines multiple concepts to represent 12 millennia of past population dynamics through simple human–nature relationships. Furthermore, the model allows us to compare different scenarios related to technological progress and land cover change, for which we find that the peak human population is highly dependent on whether technological developments continue at an exponential growth rate, or if and when there is a saturation point. Likewise, agriculture is shown to be helpful for growing the population, but nature is ultimately needed to maintain the human population. A plain language summary is available for this article.

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FIGURE 1 Crude representation of a possible mechanistic approach to modelling human recruitment. From the data in Table S1, it is hypothesized that recruitment increases linearly with agricultural resources and rural land area (a). By contrast, accessibility to electricity, education, water and sanitation have a negative influence on recruitment rates (b). When multiplied together, as is the case in our model, accessible resources = technology × land area. This gives a non-monotonic curve for recruitment (c) that may assist in explaining demographic transitions
FIGURE 1 Crude representation of a possible mechanistic approach to modelling human recruitment. From the data in Table S1, it is hypothesized that recruitment increases linearly with agricultural resources and rural land area (a). By contrast, accessibility to electricity, education, water and sanitation have a negative influence on recruitment rates (b). When multiplied together, as is the case in our model, accessible resources = technology × land area. This gives a non-monotonic curve for recruitment (c) that may assist in explaining demographic transitionsCC-BY · From the PDF
FIGURE 2 The phenomenological human recruitment curve is based on past birth rates and under-five mortality rates through humanity's history over a range of estimated resource accessibility, where accessible resources represent the available natural ( N ) and agricultural land ( A ) area multiplied by the efficiency of accessing these resources through technology and innovation ( T N,A ). It is estimated that Paleolithic individuals spent more than one and a half times the energy in food acquisition compared to contemporary society Eaton and Eaton (2003). High-income countries have nearly double the access to food energy compared to low income countries (Roser & Ritchie, 2017)
FIGURE 2 The phenomenological human recruitment curve is based on past birth rates and under-five mortality rates through humanity's history over a range of estimated resource accessibility, where accessible resources represent the available natural ( N ) and agricultural land ( A ) area multiplied by the efficiency of accessing these resources through technology and innovation ( T N,A ). It is estimated that Paleolithic individuals spent more than one and a half times the energy in food acquisition compared to contemporary society Eaton and Eaton (2003). High-income countries have nearly double the access to food energy compared to low income countries (Roser & Ritchie, 2017)CC-BY · From the PDF
FIGURE 3 Change in population demographics over a range of accessible resources ( R ). R = T N ( t ) N + T A ( t ) A , where T N,A is the advances provided by technology and innovation and N and A are natural and agricultural land area respectively
FIGURE 3 Change in population demographics over a range of accessible resources ( R ). R = T N ( t ) N + T A ( t ) A , where T N,A is the advances provided by technology and innovation and N and A are natural and agricultural land area respectivelyCC-BY · From the PDF
FIGURE 4 Altering land degradation rates ( d a and d n ) and T N,A curves. (a) Change in the rate of agricultural land ( A ) degradation ( d a ), where rapid degradation (dotted lines) leads to an increased peak population, while reduced degradation (dashed lines) results in a lower peak population. (b) Change in the rate of natural land ( N ) degradation ( d n ) follows similar trends, where rapid degradation (dotted lines) results in an earlier onset of a high peak population and slow degradation (dashed lines) leads to minimal population growth. (c) Shift in the onset ( γ ) of technological advances and innovation ( T N,A ); early onset of T N,A (dotted lines) results in minimal population growth versus late onset of T N,A (dashed lines), which results in a delayed population explosion with a greater peak. (d) Change in the rate of diffusion of T N,A ( y max ); rapid diffusion (dotted lines) leads to negligible changes in all variables and slow diffusion of T N,A (dashed lines) results in a delayed and lower population peak. Solid lines represent the business as usual scenario
FIGURE 4 Altering land degradation rates ( d a and d n ) and T N,A curves. (a) Change in the rate of agricultural land ( A ) degradation ( d a ), where rapid degradation (dotted lines) leads to an increased peak population, while reduced degradation (dashed lines) results in a lower peak population. (b) Change in the rate of natural land ( N ) degradation ( d n ) follows similar trends, where rapid degradation (dotted lines) results in an earlier onset of a high peak population and slow degradation (dashed lines) leads to minimal population growth. (c) Shift in the onset ( γ ) of technological advances and innovation ( T N,A ); early onset of T N,A (dotted lines) results in minimal population growth versus late onset of T N,A (dashed lines), which results in a delayed population explosion with a greater peak. (d) Change in the rate of diffusion of T N,A ( y max ); rapid diffusion (dotted lines) leads to negligible changes in all variables and slow diffusion of T N,A (dashed lines) results in a delayed and lower population peak. Solid lines represent the business as usual scenarioCC-BY · From the PDF
FIGURE 5 Demographic transitions. When population grows slowly and reaches the peak growth rate (red line), there are three possible transitions: (1) technology and innovation ( T N,A ) force the system to a state of low-birth, low-death (i.e. greater well-being, R = 12); (2) natural and agricultural land cover (N & A) decline beyond compensatory effects from technology, resulting in a high-birth, high-death state (i.e. lower well-being, R = 4); 3) the system may spend significant time at peak growth ( R = 6), causing the population to explode, ultimately resulting in (1) or (2). The blue line demonstrates intermediate growth that never reaches peak population growth (either from too few resources or lack of technology and innovation ( T N,A ); the growth rate then declines with insufficient N & A. The green line results when there are abundant resources and rapid dispersal and application of T N,A , going from high-birth, high-death rates to low-birth, low-death rates, avoiding the middle stages of the demographic transition
FIGURE 5 Demographic transitions. When population grows slowly and reaches the peak growth rate (red line), there are three possible transitions: (1) technology and innovation ( T N,A ) force the system to a state of low-birth, low-death (i.e. greater well-being, R = 12); (2) natural and agricultural land cover (N & A) decline beyond compensatory effects from technology, resulting in a high-birth, high-death state (i.e. lower well-being, R = 4); 3) the system may spend significant time at peak growth ( R = 6), causing the population to explode, ultimately resulting in (1) or (2). The blue line demonstrates intermediate growth that never reaches peak population growth (either from too few resources or lack of technology and innovation ( T N,A ); the growth rate then declines with insufficient N & A. The green line results when there are abundant resources and rapid dispersal and application of T N,A , going from high-birth, high-death rates to low-birth, low-death rates, avoiding the middle stages of the demographic transitionCC-BY · From the PDF
FIGURE 6 Whether technology and innovation ( T N,A ) will saturate as a result of waning productivity and yield is a great unknown. Here we show potential outcomes of varying the amount of improvement provided by T N,A . The solid line reflects no limit to the degree of improvement from T N,A , where efficiency grows at a continuous exponential rate. The dotted line represents a 60% increase in benefits received from T N,A when compared to current levels ( e N,A = 1 . 6). The dashed line shows what happens if T N,A saturates at the current level ( e N,A = 1). Showing the counterintuitive and convoluted influence of technology and innovation on human population
FIGURE 6 Whether technology and innovation ( T N,A ) will saturate as a result of waning productivity and yield is a great unknown. Here we show potential outcomes of varying the amount of improvement provided by T N,A . The solid line reflects no limit to the degree of improvement from T N,A , where efficiency grows at a continuous exponential rate. The dotted line represents a 60% increase in benefits received from T N,A when compared to current levels ( e N,A = 1 . 6). The dashed line shows what happens if T N,A saturates at the current level ( e N,A = 1). Showing the counterintuitive and convoluted influence of technology and innovation on human populationCC-BY · From the PDF

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Metadata

Authors
Henderson, K., & Loreau, M.
Venue
People and Nature
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2019-02-21
Volume
1
Issue
1
Pages
31-43
ISSN
2575-8314
DOI
10.1002/pan3.8
Cited by
36
References
3
Language
en
Licence
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Funders
H2020 European Research Council

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